GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ - The Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem issued its 100-Day Y2K Report on Wednesday. The report noted that "Sensationalists continue to fuel rumors of massive Y2K failures and government conspiracies, while some corporations and nations concerned about their image downplay real Y2K problems." One of the recurring themes in the Y2K debate is the degree to which the public's perception of the issues involved can be a critical factor in determining the actual Y2K outcome. As the report says, "Americans should prepare for Y2K based on facts and reasonable predictions about the problem's effects on vital services."
To what extent do Americans have the facts and to what extent are they concerned? The Gallup Poll has conducted three surveys as part of a special Y2K poll sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and USA Today, the latest of which includes interviews conducted August 25-29.
The following sections review a number of the major conclusions of the Senate report and put them in the context of the American people's attitudes as measured in the NSF/USA Today/Gallup survey. All report quotations, shown in bold below, are taken from the Executive Summary of the 100-Day Report as reported on the Senate Committee's web site at https://www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt/exec_sum_100days.pdf.
"The true extent of Y2K failures will match neither the most optimistic nor the most apocalyptic predictions. Rather, Y2K problems will hit sporadically, based on geography, size of organization, and level of preparedness, and will cause more inconveniences than tragedies."
This conclusion generally seems to fit well with public perceptions. In response to a number of broad questions asked in the NSF/USA Today/Gallup poll, the public consistently chooses a "minor problems" alternative, rejecting either a major/total view, or a "no problems at all" view of the impact of the problems. In almost all instances, the concern has become less significant over time, rather than more significant.
As you may know, most computer systems around the world have to be reprogrammed so that they can accurately recognize the date once we reach the Year 2000. Do you think that computer mistakes due to the Year-2000 issue will cause major problems, minor problems, or no problems at all?
| Major problems | Minor problems | No problems at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 11% | 71% | 15% | 3% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 21 | 65 | 12 | 2 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 34 | 51 | 10 | 5 |
Do you think that computer mistakes due to the Year-2000 issue will cause major problems, minor problems or no problems at all for you personally?
| Major problems | Minor problems | No problems at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 7% | 52% | 40% | 1% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 9 | 56 | 32 | 3 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 14 | 53 | 30 | 3 |
Thinking about the U.S. economy, which of the following statements best describes the possible effect you think the Y2K bug will have on the economy -- [It will cause a total economic breakdown or catastrophe, it will cause serious problems in the economy such as slowing production or creating a recession, it will cause only minor problems in the economy, or it will have no negative impact on the economy]?
| Economic breakdown/ catastrophe | Serious problems | Only minor problems | No negative impact on the economy | Other/ No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 2% | 13% | 63% | 20% | 2% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 4 | 25 | 55 | 14 | 2 |
Thinking more generally about the kind of problems which could possibly be created by the Y2K computer bug, which of the following best describes how serious these problems will be in the United States -- [Y2K will result in disasters which could cause the loss of human life, Y2K will cause economic and social disruptions, but will not be life threatening, Y2K will cause only minor disruptions and inconveniences, or Y2K will have no negative impact on people's lives]?
| Disasters which could cause loss of human life | Economic and social disruptions, but not life threatening | Only minor disruptions and incon- veniences |
No negative impact on people's lives | Other/ No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 3% | 15% | 69% | 11% | 2% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 6 | 28 | 54 | 9 | 3 |
"The increase in worldwide public awareness, remediation and contingency planning since the Committee's February 1999 report, 'Investigating the Impact of the Year 2000 Problem,' has been remarkable."
Public awareness of the Y2K problem has indeed increased significantly since last December. The percentage of Americans saying that they have seen or heard "a great deal" about the problem has surged from 39% in December 1998, at the time of the first wave of the study, to 64% in the most recent wave. Only 12% of Americans now say that they have heard "not much" or "nothing at all" about Y2K.
How much have you seen or heard about the Year-2000 computer bug problem, sometimes called the Millennium Bug or the Y2K bug, before now -- a great deal, some, not much, or nothing at all?
| A great deal | Some | Not much | Nothing at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 64% | 24% | 9% | 3% | *% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 56 | 30 | 11 | 3 | * |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 39 | 40 | 13 | 8 | * |
"Sectors critical to the safety and well-being of Americans, as well as to the economy, have made significant progress in the last eight months."
The public generally agrees that progress has been made. Most of the trend questions included in the poll have shown that the public has become increasingly optimistic about the impact of Y2K problems over the past nine months. This is true in particular for questions about selected sectors of the economy:
Next I'm going to read some specific problems. As I read each one, please say whether you think it likely or unlikely to occur as a result of Y2K. First, ... . Next, ... . [RANDOM ORDER]
| Dec 9-13, 1998 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % "likely" | % "likely" | % "likely" | |
| Banking/accounting will fail | 63 | 55 | 48 |
| Air traffic control will fail | 46 | 43 | 35 |
| Food/retail distribution will fail | 37 | 40 | 35 |
| Emergency/ "911" will fail | 36 | 32 | 27 |
| Hospital equipment/services will fail | 33 | 32 | 22 |
| Nuclear power/defense systems will fail | 30 | 27 | 18 |
| Passenger cars/trucks will fail | 17 | -- | 12 |
"The International Y2K picture is more disturbing."
The American public agrees with this finding. Americans have consistently shown more concern about the state of readiness of foreign countries than they have about the readiness of this country. The poll asked how confident Americans were that various institutions and governments would be prepared for the Y2K problem. Foreign governments were at the bottom of this confidence list. In the latest poll, 49% of Americans were confident in the "foreign governments of other developed and industrialized countries" would be prepared, and only 19% were confident that "foreign governments of Third-World and other less developed countries" would be prepared. These compare with the 80% and higher percentages of the American public who feel that the U.S. state, local and federal governments would be prepared.
As you may know, efforts are currently underway throughout the country to upgrade computer systems in order to correct the Y2K computer problem. We'd like to know whether you are generally confident or NOT confident that each of the following levels of government and business will have upgraded their computer systems before any Y2K problems can occur. How about ... ?
| Dec 9-13, 1998 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % "confident" | % "confident" | % "confident" | |
| U.S. corporations/large businesses | 82 | 85 | 91 |
| Your employer or workplace | -- | -- | 87 |
| Your state government | 73 | 77 | 85 |
| Your local government | 68 | 71 | 83 |
| U.S. federal government | 68 | 73 | 81 |
| Small U.S. businesses | 56 | 54 | 65 |
| Foreign governments/developed | 48 | 44 | 49 |
| Foreign governments/less developed | 18 | 15 | 19 |
"The financial services sector in the U.S. will be prepared for the millennium date change."
There is not as much agreement with this report conclusion from the American people. About half of the public says that banking and accounting systems will fail, "possibly causing errors in employee paychecks, government payments and other automated financial transactions." This is in the highest perceived failure rate of any of seven different sectors tested.
Additionally, 51% of Americans say that they will obtain bank confirmations and statements before January 1, 25% say that they will withdraw cash, and 10% say they will withdraw all of their money from the bank.
"In general, large companies with greater resources have dealt well with the Y2K problem. Very small businesses may survive using manual processes until Y2K problems are remediated. However, many small- and medium-sized businesses are extremely unprepared for Y2K disruptions."
The public is significantly more confident that large businesses and corporations will have solved their Y2K problems than it is that small businesses will have solved their problems.
As you may know, efforts are currently underway throughout the country to upgrade computer systems in order to correct the Y2K computer problem. We'd like to know whether you are generally confident or NOT confident that each of the following levels of government and business will have upgraded their computer systems before any Y2K problems can occur. How about... ?
U.S. corporations and large businesses
| Yes, confident | No, not confident | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 91% | 8% | 1% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 85 | 13 | 2 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 82 | 16 | 2 |
Small U.S. businesses
| Yes, confident | No, not confident | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 65% | 34% | 1% |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | 54 | 43 | 3 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 56 | 41 | 3 |
* less than 0.5%
(vol.) volunteered response
For more details on Gallup's Y2K findings, click here: https://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr990910.asp.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,014 adults, 18 years and older, conducted August 25-29, 1999. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.