GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ - The House Government Reform Committee has opened hearings on President Clinton's decision to offer clemency to 16 Puerto Rican nationalists, many of whom were members of the "Armed Forces of National Liberation" -- known by its Spanish acronym "FALN"-- a group responsible for bombings of U.S. military and civilian targets in the late 1970s and early 1980s. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds that a relatively low level of attention is being paid to the controversy, but that the majority of Americans disagree with the president's decision and think that it was motivated by a desire to help Hillary Clinton's New York Senate campaign.
The poll, conducted from September 10-14 -- after the clemency decision was announced, but before the White House invoked executive privilege in refusing to turn over documents on the case to the House committee -- shows that 61% of Americans oppose the president's decision. Just 19% agree with his clemency offer, while 20% express no opinion on the matter. There are differences along party lines, with 70% of Republicans opposing the decision compared to 51% of Democrats -- and also along racial lines, with 64% of whites in opposition compared to 42% of nonwhites.
The poll found that just 37% of the American public has been following the clemency controversy closely. This is a fairly low level of attention, about on par with such news stories as the Clinton Race Initiative in 1998, the Ethics investigation of Senator Bob Packwood of Oregon in 1993, or consideration of the GATT trade agreement in Congress in 1994. Those who are following the situation closely are stronger in their opposition to Clinton's decision than the general population, with a 78% disagree to 19% agree ratio.
What Motivated the President's Decision?
When given a choice, Americans generally side with the belief that
politics motivated the decision to offer clemency rather than the
president's contention that humanitarian concerns were his true
reasons. Six out of ten Americans believe the clemency offer was an
attempt to boost Hillary Rodham Clinton's Senate bid in New York,
where 1.3 million people of Puerto Rican descent live and vote.
Support for that position is far higher among Republicans than
Democrats, as might be expected, but even 43% of those who voted
for Mr. Clinton in 1996 support the politics position. Among those
who have been following the clemency controversy closely, 72%
believe the decision was politically motivated.
No Effect on Clinton's Approval Rating
Despite the strong levels of opposition to the president's clemency
decision, it has had no apparent impact on his overall job approval
ratings. Currently, 60% of Americans approve of the job he is doing
as president, roughly the same as ratings he has received in Gallup
polls conducted since April of this year.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,698 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted September 10-14, 1999. For results based on this sample,
one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?
| Approve | Disapprove | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | |||
| 99 Sep 10-14 | 60% | 38% | 2% |
| 99 Aug 24-26 | 60 | 35 | 5 |
| 99 Aug 16-18 | 59 | 36 | 5 |
| 99 Aug 3-4 | 60 | 35 | 5 |
| 99 Jul 22-25 | 64 | 31 | 5 |
| 99 Jul 16-18 | 58 | 38 | 4 |
| 99 Jul 13-14 | 59 | 37 | 4 |
| 99 Jun 25-27 | 57 | 41 | 2 |
| 99 Jun 11-13 | 60 | 37 | 3 |
| 99 Jun 4-5 | 60 | 35 | 5 |
| 99 May 23-24 | 53 | 42 | 5 |
| 99 May 7-9 | 60 | 35 | 5 |
| 99 Apr 30-May 2 | 60 | 36 | 4 |
| 99 Apr 26-27 | 60 | 35 | 5 |
| 99 Apr 13-14 | 60 | 36 | 4 |
| 99 Apr 6-7 | 59 | 35 | 6 |
| 99 Mar 30-31 | 64 | 32 | 4 |
| 99 Mar 19-21 | 64 | 33 | 3 |
| 99 Mar 12-14 | 62 | 35 | 3 |
| 99 Mar 5-7 | 68 | 28 | 4 |
| 99 Feb 26-28 | 66 | 31 | 3 |
| 99 Feb 19-21 | 66 | 30 | 4 |
| 99 Feb 12-13 | 68 | 30 | 2 |
| 99 Feb 9(*) | 70 | 27 | 3 |
| 99 Feb 4-8 | 65 | 33 | 2 |
| 99 Jan 27 | 67 | 31 | 2 |
| 99 Jan 22-24 | 69 | 29 | 2 |
| 99 Jan 15-17 | 69 | 29 | 2 |
| 99 Jan 8-10 | 67 | 30 | 3 |
| 99 Jan 6(*) | 63 | 34 | 3 |
(*) one-night poll
As you may know, President Clinton has offered clemency to several members of a group who used violence in the 1970s to support political independence for Puerto Rico. Clinton has said these Puerto Ricans can be released from jail if they agree to certain conditions. How closely have you followed the news about this clemency offer -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?
BASED ON -- 839 -- FORM B RESPONDENTS; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Very closely | 12% |
| Somewhat closely | 25 |
| Not too closely | 26 |
| Not at all | 36 |
| No opinion | 1 |
| 100% |
From what you know about the matter, do you agree or disagree with President Clinton's decision to offer clemency to these people?
BASED ON -- 839 -- FORM B RESPONDENTS; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Agree | 19% |
| Disagree | 61 |
| No opinion | 20 |
| 100% |
Which of the following statements do you think is the main reason why Bill Clinton made this clemency offer -- [ROTATE: 1) Because religious and international leaders asked him to do so, and he decided it was the right thing to do, (or) 2) Because he was attempting to win political support for Hillary Clinton among Hispanics in New York, where she may run for the U.S. Senate]?
BASED ON -- 839 -- FORM B RESPONDENTS; ± 4 PCT PTS
| Decided it was right thing to do | 25% |
| Attempting to win political support for Hillary Clinton | 60 |
| OTHER (vol.) | 2 |
| No opinion | 13 |
| 100% |
(vol.) volunteered response