GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
While it is still eighteen months away, the year 2000 race for the presidency continues to be dominated by strong frontrunners in both the Republican and Democratic parties. Not only do both Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush lead their nearest opponents by double-digit margins but also, at this stage, neither is facing more than one significant challenger.
For the past twelve months, Al Gore has led a dwindling pack of potential candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination and has recently strengthened his lead over the one remaining contender, former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley. In a new Gallup poll, taken April 30 through May 2, 66% of Democrats and independents who lean toward the Democratic Party say they would like to see Gore win the Democratic nomination for President in 2000. This is up from 54% in a survey taken two weeks ago. At the same time, support for Bradley has fallen eleven points, from 34% to 23%.
George W. Bush has also demonstrated frontrunner staying power, having held first place in Republican primary test elections since Gallup began tracking the race in May 1998. Bush had been winning the support of more than half of Republicans nationwide in recent months. However, in the new Gallup poll taken this past weekend, support for Bush fell for the first time this year, dropping from 53% in a poll taken April 13-14, to 42% today. Many of the voters lost by Bush have apparently gone to the second-place contender, Elizabeth Dole, whose support since the previous survey has jumped eight points -- from 16% to 24%. While many factors could account for Bush's losses and Dole's gains, it is possible that they are due to the publicity surrounding Dole's April 16-17 trip to Albania and Macedonia, where she visited Kosovar refugee camps.
All other candidates measured in Gallup's primary list trail far behind Dole, including former Vice President Dan Quayle and businessman Steve Forbes, each supported by only 6% of Republicans. Conservatives Pat Buchanan and Gary Bauer each receive just 3%. Arizona Senator John McCain and former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander are supported by just 4% and 3%, respectively, while Congressman John Kasich of Ohio and Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire register no more than 1%.
Historical Parallels in the Primaries
As the leader for the Democratic nomination, Al Gore seems to be
following in the tradition of Richard Nixon in 1960 and George Bush
in 1988 -- both vice presidents who held strong leads among members
of their party in national primary polls early on. While it is too
soon to know what will happen to Gore, both Nixon and Bush went on
to win their party's nomination for president.
On the other side, Republican frontrunner George W. Bush seems to most closely parallel Governor Nelson Rockefeller in 1964, Senator Gary Hart in 1988, and Senator Bob Dole in 1996 -- all strong frontrunners a year before the election, among a field of candidates containing no vice-presidential heir-apparent for their party's nomination. Of this group, however, only Bob Dole maintained his lead within the party and went on to win the nomination for president.
Abortion Issue Not a Big Factor in GOP Primary
The latest Gallup survey also asked Americans about their views on
the issue of abortion, including whether they consider themselves
pro-choice or pro-life. Despite some differences in abortion views
among the Republican candidates, no differences in Republican voter
support for the leading candidates are seen on the issue. Bush is
favored by the plurality of both Republicans who call themselves
pro-life as well as those who identify themselves as being
pro-choice. Dole maintains her second-place position among both
groups as well. Where the issue seems to make a difference is in
support for strongly pro-life candidates Bauer, Buchanan and
Quayle. Each is favored by 2% or less of pro-choice Republicans,
compared to 8-9% of pro-life Republicans. Virtually all of this
pro-life support for Buchanan and Bauer (though not for Quayle) is
from people who say they feel very strongly about their position on
abortion.
In General Election Contest, Bush Bests Gore
Despite the slippage as favorite choice among Republicans for the
GOP nomination, George W. Bush continues to beat Al Gore in early
trial heats for president. In the latest Gallup survey, Bush leads
Gore by a 16-percentage-point margin, 56% to 40%. That margin is
slightly wider (57% to 39%) among "regular" presidential voters --
those who say they are registered to vote and say they participated
in the 1996 election. Bush's current lead is about the same as it
was this past March, but it is down slightly from mid-April, when
it had expanded to 21 points.
When Americans are asked to choose between the two front-runners, Bush receives an impressive 97% of the vote from Republican voters, compared to Gore, who receives only 80% of the Democratic vote. Among independents who appear to be regular presidential voters, Bush is favored over Gore by a nearly two-to-one margin, 60% to 31%.
For results based on the sample of national adults (N=1,014) surveyed April 30-May 2, 1999, the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
REPUBLICAN LIST: FIRST MENTION
BASED ON -- 411 -- REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS; MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR = ± 5 PCT. PTS.
| 99 Apr 13-14 | 99 Apr 30-May 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Alexander | *% | 3% |
| Gary Bauer | 2 | 3 |
| Patrick Buchanan | 4 | 5 |
| George W. Bush | 53 | 42 |
| Elizabeth Dole | 16 | 24 |
| Steve Forbes | 6 | 6 |
| John Kasich | 2 | 1 |
| John McCain | 5 | 4 |
| Dan Quayle | 7 | 6 |
| Bob Smith | * | * |
| Other (vol.) | * | * |
| None/Wouldn't vote | 2 | 2 |
| No opinion | 3 | 3 |
| 100% | 100% |
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2000? [RANDOM ORDER: Bill Bradley, Al Gore]
DEMOCRATIC LIST: FIRST MENTION
BASED ON -- 492 -- DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRAT LEANERS; MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR = ± 5 PCT. PTS.
| 99 Apr 13-14 | 99 Apr 30-May 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Bill Bradley | 34% | 23% |
| Al Gore | 54 | 66 |
| Other (vol.) | 1 | 1 |
| None/Wouldn't vote | 3 | 4 |
| No opinion | 8 | 6 |
| 100% | 100% |
If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Governor George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATE: Al Gore, the Democrat (or), George W. Bush, the Republican]?
| Al Gore | George W. Bush | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| (NA) 99 Apr 30-May 2 | 40% | 56% | 4% |
| (NA) 99 Apr 13-14 | 38 | 59 | 3 |
| (NA) 99 Mar 12-14 | 41 | 56 | 3 |
| (NA) 99 Mar 5-7 | 41 | 56 | 3 |
| (NA) 99 Feb 19-21 | 43 | 54 | 3 |
| (NA) 99 Jan 8-10 | 47 | 48 | 5 |
| (NA) 98 May 8-10 | 46 | 50 | 4 |
* less than 0.5%
(NA) National Adults
(vol.) volunteered response