GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
In the wake of nuclear tests by India and Pakistan, a new Gallup poll shows little change in the past decade either in the public's evaluation of the atomic bomb or in Americans' feelings about whether the United States might become involved in a nuclear war. Most people today feel the development of the atomic bomb was a bad thing, that the chances of world peace are seriously threatened as a consequence of several countries having a nuclear capability, and that within the next 10 years it is likely that some countries -- not including the United States -- will use nuclear weapons against another. On the other hand, most Americans feel that U.S. security is not threatened and that it is unlikely the U.S. will be involved in a nuclear war within the next decade.
According to the current Gallup poll, 61% of Americans believe the development of the atomic bomb was a bad thing, while just 36% say it was a good thing. In 1990, Americans expressed a similar view, saying the atomic bomb was a bad development by a margin of 58% to 37%.
These views represent a reversal of the positive views held by the public right after Japan's surrender in August, 1945, shortly after atomic bombs had been dropped on the two Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Since the surrender was widely attributed to the bombs, it is not surprising that most Americans at the time thought the development of the atomic bomb was a good thing, by a margin of 69% to 17%. By 1949, after the Soviets had tested their own atomic bomb and the cold war had begun, the margin in favor of the bomb was smaller, at 59% to 29%.
Despite their negative views about the atomic bomb, Americans remain sanguine about the possibility of the United States' becoming involved in a nuclear war: by a margin of 61% to 37%, they think it is unlikely to happen within the next ten years. This marks a slightly less optimistic attitude than in 1991, however, when 69% of Americans thought it unlikely that the U.S. would become involved in a nuclear war within the next decade, and 28% thought it likely. Still, both 1990 polls showed considerably more optimism than those in the early 1980s, when Americans were nearly evenly divided on whether the country would become involved in a nuclear war. In April, 1982, for example, 48% thought it likely to happen within a decade, while 45% thought it unlikely.
Nuclear Threat Jeopardizes World Peace More Than U.S.
Security
Two of three Americans say that the chances for world peace are
seriously threatened by the nuclear capabilities of other
countries. However, Americans are much less worried about U.S.
national security, with a majority saying it is not threatened by
the nuclear capability of other countries.
When asked to evaluate the threat to world peace posed by specific nations that either now have, or could have, nuclear weapons, 66% of Americans say Pakistan would pose a serious threat, compared with 47% who say India would be a threat. Iran and Iraq are seen as the most threatening among the countries mentioned. More than eight in ten Americans feel that those two Middle East countries would pose a serious threat if they had nuclear weapons.
Methodology
The current results are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, conducted June
5-7, 1998. For results based on a sample of this size, one can say
with 95 percent confidence that the error attributable to sampling
and other random effects could be plus or minus 3 percentage
points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or
bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Do you think it was a good thing or a bad thing that the atomic bomb was developed?
| Development of the Atomic Bomb-Trend | |||
| Good | Bad | No Opinion | |
| 1998 Jun 5-7 | 36% | 61 | 3 |
| 1990 | 37% | 56 | 7 |
| 1949 | 59% | 29 | 12 |
| 1947 | 55% | 38 | 7 |
| 1945 | 69% | 17 | 14 |
(Asked of Form A, 494 respondents, ±5%) Thinking about the countries of the world that currently have nuclear capabilities, do you feel the national security of the United States is seriously threatened right now, or not?
| U.S. Security? | |||
| Yes,threatened | 41% | ||
| No, not threatened | 58 | ||
| No Opinion | 1 100% |
||
((Asked of Form B, 509 respondents, ±5%) Thinking about the countries of the world that currently have nuclear capabilities, do you feel the chances for world peace are seriously threatened right now, or not?
| World Peace? | |||
| Yes,threatened | 66% | ||
| No, not threatened | 32 | ||
| No Opinion | 1 100% |
||
(Asked of Form B, 509 respondents, ±5%) Next I'm going to read a list of countries, some of which have and some of which do not have nuclear weapons. As I read each one, please tell me whether you think possession of nuclear weapons by that country would pose a serious threat to world peace, or not. (RANDOM ORDER)
| Yes | No | No Opinion | |
| Iraq | 89% | 9 | 2 |
| Iran | 83% | 12 | 5 |
| Pakistan | 66% | 30 | 4 |
| China | 61% | 34 | 5 |
| Russia | 48% | 48 | 4 |
| India | 47% | 47 | 6 |
| Israel | 43% | 53 | 4 |
| Brazil | 17% | 73 | 10 |
| Great Britain | 13% | 83 | 4 |
