GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Aside from the controversy surrounding California Representative Gary Condit, much of the discussion in Washington centers on the shrinking budget surplus. Projected to be $281 billion as recently as April, new budget estimates place the surplus at $153 billion, which diverts $9 billion away from Social Security. A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that 34% of Americans think the decrease in the budget surplus is a very serious problem, and 39% call it somewhat serious. President Bush is viewed as more responsible for the decrease than are Republicans and Democrats in Congress, although none are seen as "very responsible" by more than a third of the public. A majority of Americans believes that next year's federal budget will show a deficit rather than a surplus.
All Politicians Seen as Responsible for Smaller Surplus
According to the poll, conducted August 24-26, a majority of Americans see Bush, the Republicans in Congress, or the Democrats in Congress as being at least somewhat responsible for the reduced surplus. The public assigns the most responsibility to Bush -- 72% think he is at least somewhat responsible, though just 33% think he is "very responsible." Although the 33% figure is not all that high, it is more than double that for the Democrats in Congress (15%) and substantially higher than that for Republicans in Congress (24%).
RESPONSIBILITY SUMMARY TABLE
|
|
|
|
Very/Somewhat responsible |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
President Bush |
33 |
39 |
72 |
|
The Republicans in Congress |
24 |
47 |
71 |
|
The Democrats in Congress |
15 |
46 |
61 |
Roughly one-third of most subgroups see Bush as very responsible. Even 32% of Republicans see Bush as very responsible, along with 31% of independents and 38% of Democrats. The responses are much more partisan in reference to the Democrats and Republicans in Congress. Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to say the Congressional Democrats are very responsible for the smaller surplus, and Democrats (31%) are much more likely than Republicans (19%) to assign that degree of responsibility to the Congressional Republicans.
Americans Predict Return to Budget Deficits
When asked what they think is likely to happen to the budget by next year, 54% expect a deficit, and 40% predict a surplus. Responses on this item are strongly related to party affiliation -- Republicans believe there will be a surplus next year, by a 57% to 37% margin. Democrats see things very differently, as 69% say there will be a deficit next year, while just 25% say there will be a surplus. By a 54% to 39% margin, a majority of independents think there will be a deficit next year.
| What do you think is more likely to happen to the federal budget next year? |
 |
| August 24-26, 2001 |
Bush Job Approval Essentially Unchanged
The controversy over the smaller surplus has had little impact on Bush's job approval rating, even though he is generally thought to be most responsible for it. The latest poll shows 55% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing, while 36% disapprove. Bush's approval ratings have fluctuated in a very small range, 55% to 57%, since mid-July. His prior rating, from August 16-19, was 57% approval and 36% disapproval.
The public is about evenly divided, though, as to whether Bush deserves to be re-elected. Forty-six percent in the latest poll say he deserves re-election, while 44% say he does not. This may not be surprising, though, given the close 2000 presidential election, and the fact that recent Gallup poll readings on the 2004 election also show a tightly contested race between Bush and Al Gore. By comparison, Americans are more likely to say that most members of Congress (51%) and their own representative in Congress (64%) deserve re-election.
Gallup has never asked this question this early in a presidency. This was first asked of Bill Clinton in January of 1994, about a year into his first term. At that point, 41% thought he deserved re-election and 45% did not. Clinton's approval rating in January 1994 was 54%.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 814 adults, 18 years and older, conducted August 24-26, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
As you may know, the federal government currently has a budget surplus, which means the government takes in more money than it spends.
Recent reports indicate that the size of the federal budget surplus has decreased by more than $100 billion since April of this year. Please tell me whether you think each of the following is -- very responsible, somewhat responsible, not very responsible, or not responsible at all -- for the decrease in the budget surplus. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
A. George W. Bush
|
|
|
|
Not responsible at all |
No |
|
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 24-26 |
33% |
39 |
11 |
13 |
4 |
B. The Republicans in Congress
|
|
|
|
Not responsible at all |
No |
|
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 24-26 |
24% |
47 |
12 |
10 |
7 |
C. The Democrats in Congress
|
|
|
|
Not responsible at all |
No |
|
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 24-26 |
15% |
46 |
18 |
13 |
8 |
Do you think the decrease in the budget surplus is a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not a serious problem at all?
|
|
Very |
Somewhat serious |
Not very serious |
Not serious at all |
No |
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 24-26 |
34% |
39 |
15 |
10 |
2 |
What do you think is more likely to happen to the federal budget by next year -- [ROTATED: the government will have a budget surplus, (or) the government will have a budget deficit]?
|
Will have surplus |
Will have deficit |
No opinion |
|
|
(NA) 2001 Aug 24-26 |
40% |
54 |
6 |
(NA) – National Adults
