New Gallup Poll economic data collected May 6-9, 2002* show that the public's sentiment toward current economic conditions is down from last month. Overall, 35% of Americans rate the current economy as excellent or good, and 14% rate it poor. This is down from April, when 38% rated the economy excellent or good, and about the same as the rating for March (34%). It is also below the relatively weak level of a year ago (May 10-14, 2001), when 40% of Americans rated economic conditions excellent or good, and even farther below its May 2000 level of 66%.
The new poll also shows that for the third month in a row, more Americans say that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better (52%) as opposed to getting worse (39%). This is about the same percentage of Americans who said economic conditions were getting better in April (53%) and in March (54%). Of course, these levels of optimism are dramatically different from last year, when the numbers were essentially reversed. For example, in Gallup's May 10-14, 2001 poll, 63% of Americans said economic conditions were getting worse and only one in four Americans (25%) said things were getting better.
Consumer Expectations Remain About the Same
Americans' future expectations about the economy continue to be quite positive. More Americans currently believe that economic growth will increase (54%) rather than decrease (14%) over the next six months. This ratio is down somewhat from last month's ratio of 57% who said economic growth would increase, compared to 18% saying it would decrease. Still, it is about the same as the ratio for January 2002, when 53% said growth would increase and 15% said it would decrease. This trend indicates that while consumer expectations for future economic growth remain positive, they are stabilizing but not increasing.
Stronger economic growth has the potential to increase both inflation and interest rates from their current low levels. Therefore, it is not surprising that more than half of all American consumers believe that inflation (54%) and interest rates (53%) will go up over the next six months, while only 11% expect either of them to decline.
Still, even as they expect the economy to improve during the coming months, more consumers expect the unemployment rate to go up (46%), rather than down (31%). Finally, although fewer than half of Americans (46%) believe the stock market will go up over the next six months, just 20% expect it to decline.
In sum, consumer expectations for the economy are pretty much the same as they were last month. They are not improving, but leveling off.
SUMMARY TABLE: FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
|
2002 May6-9 |
Total |
Remain |
Total |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Stock Market |
46 |
25 |
20 |
|
Economic Growth |
54 |
27 |
16 |
|
Unemployment |
46 |
22 |
31 |
|
Inflation |
54 |
33 |
11 |
|
Interest Rates |
53 |
34 |
11 |
*These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 6-9, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3%. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
