GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's job approval rating is now at 69%. This does not represent a dramatic change. Bush was within one point of this reading in early June, and was at a statistically close 73% in the last Gallup poll, conducted July 9-11. But the current 69% reading has a certain symbolic importance since it's the first time the president's job approval rating has fallen below 70% in the 10-plus months since Sept. 11. We have to go back to 1963-1964 to find the last time that a president maintained a 70% or higher rating for 10 or more months (Lyndon B. Johnson).
| George W. Bush's Job Approval Rating |
 |
The graph above outlines the pattern in Bush's job approval ratings quite clearly. His average rating was in the 50% range through early September of last year when the events of Sept. 11 vaulted his ratings up by 30 points and more, culminating in the 90% rating of Sept. 21-22 (the highest job approval rating recorded in Gallup Poll history). Since that time, Bush's ratings have taken a gradual slide to the current 69%. Disapproval of the job Bush is doing is now at 24%.
It is interesting to compare Bush the son's ratings with those of his father. President George H.W. Bush reached what was at that point the highest rating in Gallup Poll history (89%) in late February/early March 1991, at the climax of the Persian Gulf War. The elder Bush's ratings began to drop at a more accelerated pace than has been the case with his son. Ten months after his high point, the senior Bush's ratings had fallen below 50%. George W. Bush's ratings 10 months after Sept. 11 are thus more than 20 points higher than were his father's at the comparable point in time some 11 years ago.
| Comparison of First 10 Months After George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush Job Approval High Points |
 |
Bush's average job approval rating for 2002 so far, 77%, is extraordinarily high, exceeded only by the 85% averaged by President Harry S. Truman in 1945 (Truman took over for Franklin D. Roosevelt in April of that year and was thus in office as Americans rejoiced over the end of World War II in Europe in May and in the Pacific in September).
| Presidential Job Approval, 1945 to 2002 |
 |
| 2002 Results based on Jan-June 2002 polling |
Regression to the Mean?
There is a general pattern in statistics (and in life) by which any extreme value on continuous measures will tend to "regress" back to the mean or average for that distribution over time. The average job approval rating for all presidents since Truman has been about 56%, which underscores how unusual it is to have job approval ratings in the 70s, 80s and 90s. When any president in the short term has extremely high or low scores on the job approval distribution, it is to be expected that the basic forces at play within the American attitudinal landscape will tend to pull that score back toward the middle as the months go by.
One of the specific factors that results in job approval scores in the middle of the 0 to 100 scale is the natural tendency for a president to be favored by those in his own party, and disfavored by those in the opposing party. Everything else being equal, Democratic presidents will get very high approval ratings from Democrats across the country, more mid-range approval ratings from independents, and lower ratings from Republicans. The opposite pattern occurs when a Republican is in the White House. Unusually low and unusually high job approval ratings occur when either the members of a president's own party begin to sour on him or, conversely, when members of the opposite party overcome their natural antipathy and approve of the job he is doing.
Bush's very high ratings after Sept. 11 occurred because -- coupled with almost unanimous job approval from Republicans -- Bush received very high approval numbers from independents and Democrats.
Now, we are seeing the more natural pattern setting in again, as the approval ratings Bush is receiving from independents and, more specifically, Democrats begin to settle back down to their more "natural" levels. At the same time, as can be seen in the chart below, Republicans remain nearly unanimous in their approval of the job he is doing.
| George W. Bush's Job Approval Rating: By Party |
 |
Differences in Bush Job Approval Within Other Subgroups
There are other interesting variations in the most recent approval rating within other sub-segments of the U.S. population, as shown in the following chart:
|
President George W. Bush Job Approval |
|
|
% Approve |
|
|
Total Sample |
69% |
|
Men |
70% |
|
Women |
67 |
|
Republicans |
96 |
|
Independents |
66 |
|
Democrats |
49 |
|
White |
72 |
|
Nonwhite |
54 |
|
Residents living in the |
|
|
East |
61 |
|
Midwest |
72 |
|
South |
71 |
|
West |
69 |
|
Stock owners |
74 |
|
Non-stock owners |
61 |
|
HH Income $75k+ |
72 |
|
$50k – $74,999 |
73 |
|
$30k – $49,999 |
70 |
|
$20k – $29,999 |
65 |
|
Under $20k |
60 |
Several points are worth noting.
- The gender gap, for the moment, is virtually non-existent. Women, who in the past have been considerably less likely to approve of Republican presidents than men have been, are now very similar to men in their approval of Bush.
- Whites are much more likely to approve of the job Bush is doing than are nonwhites, which is a typical pattern (nonwhites are strongly more Democratic in orientation than are whites).
- The president gets his lowest approval numbers in the Eastern portion of the country.
- Americans with $30,000 or more in household income, and those who own stock, are more likely to approve of the job Bush is doing than are those with lower incomes and those who do not own stock.
Americans Indicate in Their Own Words Why They Approve or Disapprove
We asked respondents in our latest poll, conducted July 22-24, to indicate in their own words why they approved or disapproved of the job George W. Bush is doing as president, as we have done three other times since Bush took office in early 2001.
The categorized responses to this question for the 693 poll respondents who approve of the job Bush is doing are presented below, with a comparison to previous trends.
|
Why do you approve of the way Bush is handling
his job as president? [Open-ended]
|
|||||
|
Jul |
May |
Jun 28- |
Mar |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
|
1 |
Satisfied/Agree with what he's doing/doing a good job |
26 |
40 |
30 |
22 |
|
2 |
Approve handling of 9/11 and war on terrorism |
13 |
16 |
-- |
-- |
|
3 |
Good values/moral/honest/good character |
13 |
9 |
9 |
-- |
|
4 |
Like his approach/how he deals with things/straightforward |
9 |
6 |
9 |
-- |
|
5 |
Strong leader |
7 |
6 |
-- |
-- |
|
6 |
Approve of his foreign policy |
4 |
2 |
3 |
-- |
|
7 |
Concern for people/cares about people/does what is best for U.S. |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
8 |
Better than Bill Clinton |
2 |
1 |
6 |
4 |
|
9 |
Hasn't made any mistakes |
1 |
2 |
7 |
-- |
|
10 |
Agrees with economic policies/approve of handling economy |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
11 |
Chose good advisors/Cabinet |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
12 |
Conservative |
1 |
1 |
2 |
-- |
|
13 |
Knowledgeable |
* |
2 |
2 |
-- |
|
14 |
Fulfilling his promises/campaign promises |
* |
* |
3 |
7 |
|
15 |
Agree with his tax plan |
* |
* |
4 |
8 |
|
Returning dignity to the White House |
-- |
1 |
1 |
-- |
|
|
Willing to give him a chance |
-- |
-- |
1 |
-- |
|
|
Honest/trustworthy/Man of integrity |
-- |
-- |
-- |
10 |
|
|
Approve of his style/Balance/Moderate approach |
-- |
-- |
-- |
8 |
|
|
Voted for him/Republican |
-- |
-- |
-- |
6 |
|
|
Accomplishing things/getting things done |
-- |
-- |
-- |
5 |
|
|
Appears confident/in control |
-- |
-- |
-- |
4 |
|
|
Agrees with his policies in general |
-- |
-- |
-- |
4 |
|
|
No scandals |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
|
|
Everything |
2 |
1 |
1 |
-- |
|
|
None |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
Other |
10 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
|
|
No opinion |
5 |
4 |
10 |
7 |
|
The biggest change in these patterns came after Sept. 11, as we would expect. Prior to that date, Americans who approved of Bush made more references to specific personal qualities and leadership. By last May, some eight months after Sept. 11, 16% of responses mentioned 9/11 specifically.
Now, in the July 22-24 poll, about 13% of respondents who approve of Bush's job performance continue to mention 9/11 as their reason. Otherwise, approval is based on a general agreement with his performance, appreciation for his values and moral character, his approach to his job, his leadership, and his foreign policy, among others.
Here are the responses from those who disapprove:
|
Why do you disapprove of the way Bush is
handling his job as president? [Open-ended]
|
|||||
|
Jul |
May |
Jun 28- |
Mar |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
|
1 |
Dissatisfied/Disagree with what he is doing/Doing a poor job |
18 |
24 |
34 |
10 |
|
2 |
Disapprove of his economic policies/handling the economy |
14 |
5 |
3 |
9 |
|
3 |
Disapprove of handling of 9/11 and war on terrorism |
7 |
15 |
-- |
-- |
|
4 |
Feel he knew about 9/11 before it happened |
7 |
13 |
-- |
-- |
|
5 |
Disapprove of his foreign policy/handling foreign affairs |
6 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
|
6 |
Not knowledgeable |
5 |
4 |
13 |
5 |
|
7 |
Caters to the rich/big business |
4 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
|
8 |
Favors the rich/not for average or poor people |
4 |
1 |
4 |
-- |
|
9 |
Wishy-washy/Doesn't hold firm |
3 |
* |
1 |
-- |
|
10 |
Disapprove of his environmental policies |
2 |
1 |
8 |
8 |
|
11 |
Elected in flawed election/stole the election/not legally president |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
12 |
Failing to fulfill his campaign promises |
2 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
|
13 |
Disapprove of his health care policies |
* |
-- |
2 |
-- |
|
14 |
Disagree with his tax plan |
* |
-- |
3 |
13 |
|
Too conservative |
-- |
3 |
2 |
-- |
|
|
Untrustworthy |
-- |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
Disapprove of his energy policies |
-- |
-- |
3 |
-- |
|
|
Disapprove of his handling of Social Security |
-- |
-- |
1 |
-- |
|
|
Don't agree with his policies in general |
-- |
-- |
-- |
11 |
|
|
Didn't vote for him/Democrat |
-- |
-- |
-- |
7 |
|
|
Hasn't accomplished much |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
|
|
None |
1 |
1 |
-- |
* |
|
|
Everything |
4 |
2 |
* |
1 |
|
|
Other |
18 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
No opinion |
3 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
|
One of the most noticeable patterns here is the increase in those who disapprove of Bush because of his handling of the economy -- a number that is now at 14%. (Note that this does not mean that only 14% disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy, but that 14% of those who disapprove of Bush's job performance in general mention the economy as their reason.) Another 8% now mention that they disapprove because of Bush's ties to the rich and big business. About 14% still talk about his handling of Sept. 11 as the reason they disapprove.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,005 national adults, 18 and older, conducted July 22-24, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For results based on the sample of -- 693 -- adults who approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of -- 253 -- adults who disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
|
|
|
Disapprove |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2002 |
||||
|
2002 Jul 22-24 |
69 |
24 |
7 |
|
|
2002 Jul 9-11 |
73 |
21 |
6 |
|
|
2002 Jul 5-8 |
76 |
18 |
6 |
|
|
2002 Jun 28-30 |
76 |
19 |
5 |
|
|
2002 Jun 21-23 |
73 |
21 |
6 |
|
|
2002 Jun 17-19 |
74 |
20 |
6 |
|
|
2002 Jun 7-8 |
74 |
18 |
8 |
|
|
2002 Jun 3-6 |
70 |
23 |
7 |
|
|
2002 May 28-29 |
77 |
17 |
6 |
|
|
2002 May 20-22 |
76 |
17 |
7 |
|
|
2002 May 6-9 |
76 |
19 |
5 |
|
|
2002 Apr 29-May 1 |
77 |
20 |
3 |
|
|
2002 Apr 22-24 |
77 |
17 |
6 |
|
|
2002 Apr 8-11 |
75 |
20 |
5 |
|
|
2002 Apr 5-7 |
76 |
19 |
5 |
|
|
2002 Mar 22-24 |
79 |
17 |
4 |
|
|
2002 Mar 18-20 |
79 |
16 |
5 |
|
|
2002 Mar 8-9 |
80 |
14 |
6 |
|
|
2002 Mar 4-7 |
77 |
18 |
5 |
|
|
2002 Mar 1-3 |
81 |
14 |
5 |
|
|
2002 Feb 8-10 |
82 |
14 |
4 |
|
|
2002 Feb 4-6 |
82 |
14 |
4 |
|
|
2002 Jan 25-27 |
84 |
13 |
3 |
|
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
83 |
13 |
4 |
|
|
2002 Jan 7-9 |
84 |
12 |
4 |
|
|
|
Disapprove |
No |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2001 |
||||
|
2001 Dec 14-16 |
86 |
11 |
3 |
|
|
2001 Dec 6-9 |
86 |
10 |
4 |
|
|
2001 Nov 26-27 |
87 |
8 |
5 |
|
|
2001 Nov 8-11 |
87 |
9 |
4 |
|
|
2001 Nov 2-4 |
87 |
9 |
4 |
|
|
2001 Oct 19-21 |
88 |
9 |
3 |
|
|
2001 Oct 11-14 |
89 |
8 |
3 |
|
|
2001 Oct 5-6 |
87 |
10 |
3 |
|
|
2001 Sep 21-22 |
90 |
6 |
4 |
|
|
2001 Sep 14-15 |
86 |
10 |
4 |
|
|
2001 Sep 7-10 |
51 |
39 |
10 |
|
|
2001 Aug 24-26 |
55 |
36 |
9 |
|
|
2001 Aug 16-19 |
57 |
34 |
9 |
|
|
2001 Aug 10-12 |
57 |
35 |
8 |
|
|
2001 Aug 3-5 |
55 |
35 |
10 |
|
|
2001 Jul 19-22 |
56 |
33 |
11 |
|
|
2001 Jul 10-11 |
57 |
35 |
8 |
|
|
2001 Jun 28-Jul 1 |
52 |
34 |
14 |
|
|
2001 Jun 11-17 |
55 |
33 |
12 |
|
|
2001 Jun 8-10 |
55 |
35 |
10 |
|
|
2001 May 18-20 |
56 |
36 |
8 |
|
|
2001 May 10-14 |
56 |
31 |
13 |
|
|
2001 May 7-9 |
53 |
33 |
14 |
|
|
2001 Apr 20-22 |
62 |
29 |
9 |
|
|
2001 Apr 6-8 |
59 |
30 |
11 |
|
|
2001 Mar 26-28 |
53 |
29 |
18 |
|
|
2001 Mar 9-11 |
58 |
29 |
13 |
|
|
2001 Mar 5-7 |
63 |
22 |
15 |
|
|
2001 Feb 19-21 |
62 |
21 |
17 |
|
|
2001 Feb 9-11 |
57 |
25 |
18 |
|
|
2001 Feb 1-4 |
57 |
25 |
18 |
|
