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Americans Divided Over General Effect of Republican Election Victory

Americans Divided Over General Effect of Republican Election Victory

Mildly optimistic that most issues will be better rather than worse with GOP in control

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are divided over whether the recent congressional elections, which gave Republicans majority control of both houses of Congress, represent a good or bad thing for the country -- with a plurality of the public taking a middle position. Still, for several different issue areas, Americans express mild optimism that things are more likely to be better rather than worse under Republican control. Also, the public's rating of the two major parties shows Americans to be a little more positive about the Republican than the Democratic Party. The long-term trend in party ratings shows much volatility, with both parties usually receiving favorable ratings from at least half the public.

These findings are based on a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Nov. 22-24, which shows that 33% of Americans think the country will be better off because the Republicans now control Congress, while 28% say the country will be worse off. A plurality, 38%, however, says that Republican control will not make any difference.

With Republican Control of Congress,
Country Will Be ... ?

After the midterm elections in 1994, when Republicans won majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in four decades, Americans expressed a more lopsided view. In a December 1994 survey, 41% said the country would be better off with Republicans controlling Congress, and just 16% said worse off. Still, close to a plurality, 40%, said the GOP victory would make no difference. These results were similar to those found in a November 1994 survey.

Not surprisingly, party affiliation greatly affects how people assess the country's well-being under GOP control. Republicans say the United States will be better off rather than worse off by a 74% to 2% margin, while Democrats take the opposite point of view by a 56% to 6% margin. Independents are truly ambivalent, with 20% saying better off, 23% worse off, and a majority -- 54% -- saying the change will make no difference.

With Republican Control of Congress,
Country Will Be ... ?
Compared by Party
2002 Nov 22-24

While the general reaction to the GOP victory is ambivalent, Americans express mostly optimistic views that on a series of issues, Republicans will make things better rather than worse. On only one issue, the war against terrorism, do Americans express rather intense views, while on all others they are more likely to say things will be "a little better" than "a lot better."

Regardless of the effect that Republican control of the White House and both houses of Congress will have on the country as a whole, do you think that in the next two years the Republicans will make things -- [ROTATED: a lot better, a little better, a little worse, (or) a lot worse] -- in each of the following areas? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A lot better

A little better

SAME (vol.)

A little worse

A lot worse

%

%

%

%

%

War on terrorism

33

34

4

13

13

Education

16

46

9

19

8

The economy

14

43

5

24

13

Decisions made by the Supreme Court/other
federal judges

14

39

10

19

13

Healthcare

9

39

8

26

16

The environment

9

32

10

26

21

Medicare and Social
Security

9

31

9

27

21

(vol.) Volunteered response

SUMMARY TABLE: BETTER OR WORSE WITH REPUBLICAN CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT

2002 Nov 22-24
(sorted by "a lot better")

Total
better

Total
worse

%

%

The war against terrorism

67

26

Education

62

27

The economy

57

37

The decisions made by
the Supreme Court
and other federal judges

53

32

Healthcare

48

42

The environment

41

47

Medicare and Social Security

40

48

Americans are least optimistic that Republicans will help the environment or make Medicare and Social Security better, with a plurality on each issue saying the issue will be worse under GOP control.

Party Ratings Show Republicans Enjoy Slight Advantage Over Democrats

The poll also shows that despite the generally positive views that Americans have about the GOP election victory, the Democrats are rated only slightly lower than the Republicans. On a scale from -5 to +5, 23% of Americans give Republicans a score of "4" or "5," compared with 17% who give these scores to Democrats. Four in 10 Americans also give each party a positive score between "1" and "3." That gives the Republicans a total favorable score of 64% to the Democrats' 59%.

Favorable Ratings of Each Party
1956-2002

The last time the party ratings were measured on this type of scale was in January 1999, just after House Republicans had voted to impeach President Bill Clinton. The impeachment itself was widely opposed by the American public. The current ratings show a significant improvement for the GOP since that time, while Democrats are viewed less favorably.

Survey Methods

The latest results are based on telephone interviews with 1,017 national adults, aged 18+, conducted Nov. 22-24, 2002. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now that the Republicans have won control of Congress in this November's elections, do you think the country will be better off, worse off, or will it not make any difference?

Better
off

Worse
off

No differ-
ence

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

2002 Nov 22-24

33

28

38

1

1994 Dec 28-30

41

16

40

3

1994 Nov 28-29

43

18

35

4

1994 Oct 7-9 ^

34

18

45

3

^

WORDING: If the Republicans win control of Congress, do you think the country will be better off, worse off, or will it not make any difference?

Regardless of the effect that Republican control of the White House and both houses of Congress will have on the country as a whole, do you think that in the next two years the Republicans will make things -- [ROTATED: a lot better, a little better, a little worse, (or) a lot worse] -- in each of the following areas? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A lot better

A little
better

SAME (vol.)

A little
worse

A lot
worse

No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

%

War on terrorism

33

34

4

13

13

3

The economy

14

43

5

24

13

1

Healthcare

9

39

8

26

16

2

Decisions made
by the Supreme
Court and other
federal judges

14

39

10

19

13

5

Education

16

46

9

19

8

2

Medicare and
Social Security

9

31

9

27

21

3

The environment

9

32

10

26

21

2

(vol.) Volunteered response

Q.8 CONTINUED

SUMMARY TABLE: BETTER OR WORSE WITH REPUBLICAN CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT

2002 Nov 22-24
(sorted by "a lot better")

A lot
better

Total
better

Total
worse

%

%

%

The war against terrorism

33

67

26

Education

16

62

27

The economy

14

57

37

The decisions made by the Supreme Court
and other federal judges

14

53

32

Health care

9

48

42

The environment

9

41

47

Medicare and Social Security

9

40

48

Next, I'd like you to rate the political parties on a scale. If you have a favorable opinion of the party, name a number between plus one and plus five -- the higher the number, the more favorable your opinion. If you have an unfavorable opinion of the party, name a number between minus one and minus five -- the higher the number the more unfavorable your opinion. First, how would you rate ... Next, how would you rate ... [ITEMS ROTATED]

A. The Republican Party

Highly favor-
able
(+4,5)

Moder-
ately
favor-
able

(+1,2,3)

Moder-
ately
unfavor-
able
(-1,2,3)

Highly unfavor-
able
(-4,5)


No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

(NA) 2002 Nov 22-24

23

41

19

14

3

(NA) 1999 Jan 15-17

18

38

22

17

5

(NA) 1998 Nov 13-15

9

38

25

15

13

(RV) 1996 Oct 26-29

25

38

20

13

4

(NA) 1996 Mar

17

45

20

11

7

(NA) 1996 Feb

21

41

20

13

5

(NA) 1996 Jan

20

41

20

14

5

(NA) 1994 Nov 28-29

29

41

16

12

2

(NA) 1993 Dec 17-19

22

50

17

7

4

(NA) 1992 Dec 4-6

21

40

21

14

4

(NA) 1991 Oct

18

47

17

11

7

(NA) 1991 Sep

17

52

16

8

7

(NA) 1984 Sep

26

39

15

14

6

(NA) 1981 Mar

30

44

11

8

7

(NA) 1980 Oct

18

47

19

11

5

(NA) 1980 May

17

50

18

10

5

(NA) 1975 Nov

15

47

20

14

4

(NA) 1973 Aug

19

40

20

16

5

(NA) 1972 Oct

29

43

14

9

5

(NA) 1970 Oct

25

47

14

10

4

(NA) 1968 Dec

25

42

17

13

3

(NA) 1968 Sep

30

47

12

7

4

(NA) 1968 Jul

27

43

16

9

5

(NA) 1968 May

27

46

14

9

4

(NA) 1967 Oct

34

39

15

8

4

(NA) 1967 Apr

33

44

12

7

4

(NA) 1966 Dec

28

41

15

7

9

(NA) 1966 Aug

29

44

14

6

7

(NA) 1965 May

26

39

12

7

16

(NA) 1964 Oct

21

33

16

17

13

(NA) 1956 Oct

33

29

13

12

13

(NA) 1956 Feb

27

31

24

6

12

(NA) National Adults

(RV) Registered Voters

Q.6 CONTINUED

B. The Democratic Party

Highly favor-
able
(+4,5)

Moder-
ately
favor-
able

(+1,2,3)

Moder-
ately
unfavor-
able
(-1,2,3)

Highly unfavor-
able
(-4,5)


No
opinion

%

%

%

%

%

(NA) 2002 Nov 22-24

17

42

25

13

3

(NA) 1999 Jan 15-17

31

41

16

9

3

(NA) 1998 Nov 13-15

27

41

17

12

3

(RV) 1996 Oct 26-29

32

38

16

10

4

(NA) 1996 Mar

24

40

18

11

7

(NA) 1996 Feb

20

42

20

13

5

(NA) 1996 Jan

21

41

22

12

4

(NA) 1994 Nov 28-29

18

37

26

18

1

(NA) 1993 Dec 17-19

24

44

20

9

3

(NA) 1992 Dec 4-6

29

43

15

8

5

(NA) 1991 Oct

16

42

22

13

7

(NA) 1991 Sep

16

47

21

8

8

(NA) 1984 Sep

26

39

18

9

8

(NA) 1981 Mar

34

41

12

6

7

(NA) 1980 Oct

27

46

15

7

5

(NA) 1980 May

28

48

14

6

4

(NA) 1975 Nov

30

48

13

5

4

(NA) 1973 Aug

29

43

15

9

4

(NA) 1972 Oct

30

44

14

6

6

(NA) 1970 Oct

35

44

11

6

4

(NA) 1968 Dec

41

33

15

6

5

(NA) 1968 Sep

32

38

17

10

3

(NA) 1968 Jul

36

37

14

8

5

(NA) 1968 May

42

36

12

7

3

(NA) 1967 Oct

31

35

18

14

2

(NA) 1967 Apr

40

37

11

7

5

(NA) 1966 Dec

33

37

13

9

8

(NA) 1966 Aug

36

40

10

7

7

(NA) 1965 May

44

34

7

4

11

(NA) 1964 Oct

45

29

10

5

11

(NA) 1956 Oct

38

25

12

10

15

(NA) 1956 Feb

43

26

22

6

3

(NA) National Adults

(RV) Registered Voters


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/7363/Americans-Divided-Over-General-Effect-Republican-Election-Victory.aspx
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