GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Former Vice President Al Gore's decision to take himself out of contention for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination leaves a handful of Congressmen and governors to vie for the trophy, none of whom currently have widespread national appeal. The scene being set is now a familiar one for the Democratic Party, which, much more than the Republican Party, has a history of running highly competitive races for presidential nominations, and whose eventual nominee often does not emerge from the pack until well into the campaign.
Gallup's last measure of voter preferences for the Democratic nomination before Gore's departure, conducted Nov. 8-10, showed Gore leading the field of presumed candidates with the support of 38% of Democrats nationwide. With 13% of the vote, Gore's 2000 running-mate, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, eked out a 1 point lead over the other second-tier candidates, including the Senate Democratic leader from South Dakota, Tom Daschle, and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt trailed this group, with 8%. Two other possible contenders, North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Vermont Governor Howard Dean, scored only 3%.
More recent data from the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll provides some indication of where Gore's supporters will go now that the former vice president has made up his mind not to run. The result is a rank order of candidates very similar to that with Gore in the race. The Dec. 7-9 poll, asking Democratic voters to state their choice for the Democratic nomination assuming Gore decided not to run, finds Lieberman on top, but only marginally ahead of Congressman Gephardt and Senators Kerry and Daschle. Other political figures with known presidential aspirations (such as Edwards, Dean, and political activist Al Sharpton) each garner less than 5% of the vote.
| Democratic Support for Presidential Nominee in 2004 |
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| NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Dec. 7-9, 2002 |
While supporters of Lieberman (who most observers assume will announce his own presidential bid within the coming weeks) no doubt welcome his apparent post-Gore frontrunner status, history offers him no guarantee of success. As the table below shows, there have been 10 competitive contests for the Democratic presidential nomination since 1952, and in seven of these, the early frontrunner failed to win the nomination. In the most recent cases, two of the winners (Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992) only emerged as formidable candidates during the primary season in the final months before the convention. Only Al Gore and Walter Mondale succeeded in winning the Democratic nomination, in 2000 and 1984 respectively, after emerging as the early leader in the race. But both did so with the credential of being the most recent Democratic vice president.
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Democratic Nomination Contests
|
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|
Election |
Frontrunner approx. 18 months before nomination |
Eventual nominee |
|
2000 |
Al Gore |
Al Gore |
|
1996 (Clinton renominated) |
-- |
-- |
|
1992 |
Mario Cuomo/Jesse Jackson |
Bill Clinton |
|
1988 |
Gary Hart |
Michael Dukakis |
|
1984 |
Walter Mondale |
Walter Mondale |
|
1980 (Carter renominated) |
-- |
-- |
|
1976 |
Edward Kennedy |
Jimmy Carter |
|
1972 |
Edmund Muskie |
George McGovern |
|
1968 |
Lyndon Johnson |
Hubert Humphrey |
|
1964 (Johnson renominated) |
-- |
-- |
|
1960 |
Adlai Stevenson |
John F. Kennedy |
|
1956 |
Adlai Stevenson |
Adlai Stevenson |
|
1952 |
Dwight Eisenhower |
Adlai Stevenson |
At this point, given Lieberman's fairly slim advantage over his leading contenders, the race appears to be wide open. (By contrast with the historic volatility in the Democratic Party, the Republican Party has been highly predictable in its choices. In seven out of eight competitive Republican races since 1952, the early frontrunner went on to win the nomination -- Nelson Rockefeller in 1964 is the exception.)
Gore's Anemic Vital Signs
Gore's decision not to run for president in 2004 probably comes as little surprise to those watching his political vital signs in the polls.
One troubling signal for Gore -- he has been a far less dominant figure in the Democratic field than he was at an equivalent stage in the 2000 campaign. Recent Gallup Polls have shown Gore leading his next closest contender by no more than 25 points (38% for Gore versus 13% for Joe Lieberman). When Hillary Clinton is included in the field of Democratic candidates, Gore's lead shrinks to only 8-10 points. By contrast, in May 1998, Gore's lead over second place rival Jesse Jackson was closer to 40 points (51% vs. 12%). And he maintained a sizeable lead over the Democratic field through most of that campaign.
Adding to Gore's problems is the fact that only a bare majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, when asked about it directly, favored his bid for the nomination in 2004. A Gallup measure in July found that only a bare majority (53%) of Democrats wanted Gore to run, while 43% did not. The recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll also confirms this finding, showing just 48% of Democrats and prospective Democratic voters saying they would prefer to see Gore run; 42% thought he should step aside.
| What did Democrats Want Gore to Do in 2004? |
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| NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Dec. 7-9, 2002 |
More generally, the American public's impression of Gore as a person has become less than enthusiastic. A September Gallup Poll found Americans evenly divided between those viewing Gore favorably (46%) versus unfavorably (47%). And while Gore's image within the Democratic Party was mostly positive, his ratings among political independents, a key political group, were not. Gore's current image is significantly less favorable than it was during his tenure as vice president from 1993 on, and even during the 2000 election campaign.
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Gore Favorable Ratings Sep. 23-26, 2002 |
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|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
No opinion |
|
|
National adults |
46% |
47 |
7 |
|
Democrats |
76% |
17 |
7 |
|
Independents |
47% |
45 |
8 |
|
Republicans |
15% |
79 |
6 |
The Bush Factor
An additional factor in Gore's calculations may have been the political strength of George W. Bush. While one need look no further than Bush's father in 1992 for an example of a president with previously enormous popularity losing his bid for re-election, the current Bush poses a solid challenge for the Democrats.
Only one-third of the American public (32%) currently disapproves of the job Bush is doing as president while -- more than a year after the Sept. 11 attacks that sent his job ratings soaring -- the majority continues to approve.
More to the point, polls asking Americans who they would support for president in 2004 show Bush leading by approximately 15 points, regardless of whether the Democratic candidate is specified as Al Gore, or is left unspecified. A Gallup Poll conducted in November showed Bush getting 55% of the vote, and the Democrats 39%, in a question that asked the public how they would vote in a race between George W. Bush and an unnamed Democratic candidate. At about the same time, a Time/CNN poll found that 57% of Americans said they would vote for Bush and 40% for Gore when the latter's name was specifically mentioned.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,014 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Nov. 8-10, 2002. For results based on the subsample of 416 Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 5 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. [ROTATED:Former Vice President, Al Gore, Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Senate Democratic Leader, Tom Daschle, Vermont Governor, Howard Dean]
BASED ON --416-- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
2002 Nov 8-10 |
||
|
National Democrats |
Registered Democrats |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Al Gore |
38 |
36 |
|
Joe Lieberman |
13 |
12 |
|
Tom Daschle |
12 |
12 |
|
John Kerry |
12 |
12 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
8 |
9 |
|
John Edwards |
3 |
4 |
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
4 |
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
|
No one |
3 |
3 |
|
No opinion |
7 |
7 |
Do you want Al Gore to run for president in 2004, or not?
BASED ON --435-- DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
Yes |
No |
No opinion |
|
|
2002 Jul 5-8 |
53% |
43 |
4 |
|
2002 Apr 29-May 1 |
46% |
49 |
5 |
|
2002 Apr 5-7 |
43% |
48 |
9 |
|
2001 Aug 3-5 |
65% |
31 |
4 |
"Thinking ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic presidential nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for? . . ."
|
With |
Without |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Al Gore |
36 |
53 |
|
Hillary Clinton |
26 |
N/A |
|
Joseph Lieberman |
8 |
10 |
|
Tom Daschle |
7 |
10 |
|
John Kerry |
7 |
8 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
5 |
6 |
|
John Edwards |
2 |
3 |
|
Howard Dean |
- |
1 |
|
Not sure |
9 |
9 |
"Would you prefer to have Al Gore run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, or would you prefer to have Al Gore step aside in 2004?"
|
12/02 |
(RV) |
||||
|
Run in 2004 |
48% |
38 |
|||
|
Step aside in 2004 |
42% |
53 |
|||
|
Not sure |
10% |
9 |
|||
|
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Latest: Dec. 7-9, 2002. N=1,005 adults nationwide. These questions were asked of Democrats, as well as non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary. (RV) – Registered voters |
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"If Al Gore decided not to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, and if the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of these same candidates would you vote for . . . ?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well, which way do you lean?"
|
% |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
20 |
|
John Kerry |
16 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
14 |
|
Tom Daschle |
14 |
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
|
John Edwards |
3 |
|
Howard Dean |
1 |
|
NONE/OTHER (vol.) |
6 |
|
Not sure |
22 |
Suppose the 2004 presidential election were being held today. If George W. Bush runs for re-election, are you more likely to vote for Bush, the Republican, or for the Democratic Party's candidate for president?
As of today, do you lean more to Bush, the Republican, or to a Democratic candidate?
|
|
|
|
NEITHER/ OTHER |
|
||
|
George W. Bush |
||||||
|
(NA) 2002 Nov 8-10 |
55% |
39 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
Bill Clinton |
||||||
|
(NA) 1994 Dec 2-4 ^ |
40% |
54 |
-- |
-- |
7 |
|
|
(NA) 1994 Mar 28-30 ^ |
43% |
50 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
|
^ |
WORDING: Suppose the 1996 presidential election were being held today. If Bill Clinton runs for re-election, are you more likely to vote for Clinton, the Democrat, or for the Republican Party's candidate for president? As of today, do you lean more to Clinton, the Democrat, or to a Republican candidate? (NA) –National Adults |
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Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between Al Gore, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican. For whom would you vote, Gore or Bush? (if not sure, ask:) Even though you haven't made up your mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Gore or Bush?
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Al Gore including leaners George W. Bush including leaners Not sure 40% 57% 3% Time/CNN/Harris Interactive Poll, November 2002. Survey by Time, Cable News Network. Methodology: Conducted by Harris Interactive, Nov. 13-Nov. 14, 2002 and based on telephone interviews with a national adult sample of 1,006. [USHARRIS.Y111502.R13] |
