Satisfaction With the Way Things Are Going
The latest Gallup Poll, conducted Feb. 3-6, shows that 40% of Americans say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. This measure was at 43% in early September 2001, just before the terrorist attacks, but zoomed in the months after the attacks as part of the general rally effect that increased Americans' optimism. Satisfaction fell steadily last year, however, and the current reading is the lowest measured since October 1996.
Most Important Problem
Almost half of Americans mention some aspect of the economy as the most important problem facing the country today, marking a steady increase in the salience of economic concerns over the last several months.
The impact of the pending war with Iraq is reflected in the fact that 35% of Americans name war or the fear of war as the nation's top problem. Only 10% mention terrorism specifically. (The poll was completed on Feb. 6, shortly before the new terrorist warning alert was issued by the federal government.)
War With Iraq
Each day's news brings word of new developments regarding the situation in Iraq. NATO held an emergency meeting yesterday to discuss the efforts of France, Germany, and Belgium to block NATO's assistance to Turkey in the event of war. Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to France and Germany for meetings on Iraq, and all eyes are focused on Friday's report to the United Nations by inspectors Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei.
Throughout it all, two things have become clear as far as American public opinion is concerned: Americans are becoming more supportive of war with Iraq, and are becoming more and more convinced that such a war is inevitable.
Support for war with Iraq, based on responses to our basic tracking measure that asks about "invading Iraq with U.S. ground troops to remove Saddam Hussein from power," has jumped to 63% (up from 58% the weekend of Jan. 31-Feb. 2). That's the highest level of support on this measure we have registered since November 2001.
Several other results from our weekend poll underscore the conclusion that the American public has become more accepting of the idea of unilateral U.S. military action in Iraq.
A plurality of Americans say that the United States should go ahead and invade Iraq, even without a new vote from the United Nations. In our Jan. 31-Feb. 2 poll, 40% of Americans said that the United States should invade only if the United Nations holds a second vote, while 33% supported an invasion regardless of what the United Nations does. (Twenty-two percent were against invading regardless.) Now, in our weekend (Feb. 7-9) poll, the "only if the U.N. authorizes" number has dropped to 34%, while the "go it alone" number is up to 39%. (The "never invade" number stayed essentially the same.)
Given a choice between: 1) supporting the United Nations in sending in more inspectors and allowing them all the time they need; and 2) invading within the next few weeks unless Iraq shows it is disarming, the public favors the latter by a 52% to 45% margin.
We also see increases in public perception that the Bush administration has a clear and well-thought-out policy on Iraq, and that the administration has made a convincing case about the need for U.S. military action against Iraq.
Seventy-eight percent of Americans indicated in the late January/early February poll that war with Iraq was likely within one month. A CNN-TIME poll conducted late last week showed that 75% of Americans say that war with Iraq is inevitable, up from 63% in January.
American Views of France, Germany, and Great Britain
There's also evidence of a significant American backlash against France and Germany as a result of these countries' positions in opposition to U.S. policy on Iraq. Americans now have a sharply more unfavorable image of France than they have had at any point over the past decade. Favorable opinions of the country have dropped 20 points in the last year, while unfavorable opinions have risen by 17 points. Americans' attitudes toward Germany, which like France has balked at supporting the U.S. position on the necessity of military action against Iraq, have also dropped since last year, although not as significantly. Opinions of Great Britain, on the other hand, have stayed extremely positive and stable.
Colin Powell
Could some of the increased support for the Bush administration's position on Iraq be a result of Secretary of State Colin Powell's highly publicized presentation before the U.N. Security Council last week?
Powell's speech has almost certainly been a factor. Two-thirds of Americans paid either a great deal or a moderate amount of attention to the speech. Powell's favorable rating remains very high, essentially unchanged from where it was prior to the speech.
Powell remains an extremely well-liked and well-trusted individual. He is the most highly regarded political figure of either party at this point in American history. Powell's favorable rating is about 20 points higher than President Bush's, and he is trusted more than Bush to make the correct decisions regarding Iraq. Powell would start out as the prohibitive favorite if he ever decided to run for president.
The Economy
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan starts two days of testimony before the Senate and House Banking Committees on monetary policy today, reminding us that despite the intense focus on Iraq, economic concerns are still regarded by Americans as the country's top problem.
New Gallup polling shows that only 22% of Americans rate the economy as either excellent or good. This percentage is little changed over the last month or two, but still among the lowest ratings we have measured since 1994.
Six in 10 Americans say the economy is getting worse, not better, indicating no sign that the general public anticipates a quick recovery from the nation's economic doldrums. Nearly 8 in 10 say that now is not a good time to find a quality job.
North Korea
Wednesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency board meets in Vienna to discuss the North Korean nuclear standoff. According to our February poll, the public's unfavorable image of North Korea has plunged by 15 points over the past year, no doubt reflecting concern over the heightened tension on the Korean peninsula. North Korea, along with Iraq and Iran, are the three lowest-rated countries out of 26 tested in our poll.
Terror Alert
CIA Director George J. Tenet testifies this week before the Senate Armed Services Committee on threats to national security, at a time when the country goes about its business under an orange security alert -- the second highest in the new color-coded alert system. On Feb. 9, Homeland Security Department Secretary Tom Ridge said that the threat to the country is the most severe since the Sept. 11 attacks.
How much impact is the increased alert status having on the average American? Not a great deal, according to our weekend polling. Worry about terrorism is up some, but not substantially. Forty-seven percent of Americans say they are somewhat or very worried about becoming the victim of terrorism, up from 39% last month. Sixty-six percent say it is at least somewhat likely there will be further acts of terrorism within the next several weeks, up from 56% last September.
There has been little change in the public's confidence in the U.S. government to protect it from terrorism. Twenty-nine percent say they have a great deal of confidence, 53% have a fair amount, and only 18% have not much or none at all.
Bush Approval
President Bush is having a busy week. He is meeting with the president of Ecuador today, taking part in an economic roundtable in Washington on Wednesday, and traveling to the Mayport Naval Air Station in Florida on Thursday.
The president's job approval rating has been holding steady. It is currently at 61%, according to our latest poll, and has been between 58% and 61% in seven Gallup Polls conducted since Jan. 10.
The public clearly recognizes that Bush's image has suffered overseas as a result of his concerted effort to mobilize international support for his views on Iraq. Last year at this time, 75% of Americans said that the leaders of other countries around the world respect George W. Bush. Now, that number has dropped to only 46%. Forty-eight percent of Americans say that world leaders don't respect Bush.
Defense Budget
Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Richard Myers testify before the Senate Armed Services Committee later this week on the defense budget. Despite the huge build-up in military forces in preparation for a possible war against Iraq, there is no strong inclination on the part of the public to increase the military budget. Only a quarter of Americans say there is too little being spent on defense -- the lowest such number since 1993.
Entertainment News
Academy Award nominees were announced this morning, an event most likely to be of interest to younger Americans. The average American attends six movies a year, and only 28% of adults say they haven't attended a movie at all over the past year. Age is the biggest predictor of movie attendance. The average 18- to 29-year-old attended more than 12 movies last year, compared to the average of 2.6 movies attended by those aged 65 and older.
Pop singer Michael Jackson has rapidly become one of the most disliked public figures we have tested in Gallup Poll history. Our weekend poll shows that 70% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Jackson, compared to 17% who have a favorable opinion. Only 10% of Americans don't know enough about Jackson to rate him.