Bush Tax Cut
Tax cuts remain the big economic news of the week. A $550 billion tax-cut plan was approved by the House last week, and the Senate will vote on its version this week. After that, the bill will go to conference committee. Some observers expect that it might become law by Memorial Day or shortly thereafter. The administration is clearly staking a good deal of its psychological capital on tax cuts. Treasury Secretary John Snow is the latest of a bevy of U.S. officials claiming that tax cuts are necessary to produce economic growth. President Bush toured two different states on Monday and one today proclaiming the virtues of tax cuts, usually backdropped by the words "jobs" and "growth," in an attempt to make it clear to everyone that tax cuts equal these two desirable goals.
Americans have historically been reluctant to endorse tax cuts as the solution to economic problems, but Gallup polling last week suggested that Americans may be warming to the idea. Two different measures of public support for tax cuts moved upward in our May 5-7 poll. Most significantly, whereas a plurality of those interviewed in mid-April said that tax cuts were a bad idea (as opposed to a good idea), 52% in last week's poll said that such cuts were a good idea, with only 41% saying that they are a bad idea.
It's also abundantly clear that an emphasis on the economy is exactly what the people of America want at this point in time. Economic concerns now dominate responses to our classic "most important problem" question. Mentions of the war or terrorism as the country's top problem have dwindled to a new low.
Despite all of this, there are some less-than-positive signs for the president. When Americans are asked who can best handle the economy, Bush or the Democrats, Bush's margin over the Democrats has become smaller. Bush "wins" on this measure, by a 51% to 39% margin, but he was ahead by 55% to 36% earlier this year.
Also, despite rising support for tax cuts, Americans, when given a choice, continue to say that reducing the federal budget deficit should have a higher priority than cutting federal income taxes. Most polling has shown that Americans believe that tax cuts benefit the rich more than the middle or lower classes.
The Economy
Last week marked the fourth week in a row in which the major stock indexes were up, and the Dow was up again on Monday of this week. These bull market indicators may be one reason why we find that Americans' views on the direction of the economy have become more positive.
Forty-two percent of Americans now say that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better. While that leaves 51% who say economic conditions are getting worse, the numbers are still more optimistic than we have found in any of our monthly measures since last July. The recent low point came in early March of this year, when only 23% said that the economy was getting better.
What's curious in our data is the very interesting distinction Americans are making between the future of the economy and its current condition. There has been no substantial improvement in how Americans rate the current economic conditions in this country today -- only 22% rate them as excellent or good, while 28% rate them as poor. That's actually a slightly more negative reading that we found in April and March.
Americans are apparently hoping that things are picking up, but they don't see the results yet. Indeed, 7% of those employed or looking for work say that now is a bad time to find a quality job, and that negative view has been echoed in polling that stretches back to the fall of 2001.
Iraq
Last week, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld declared that it may be a long while before U.S. troops can leave Iraq, even as the administration made some quick changes in the personnel involved in helping reconstruct Iraq. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Jay Garner is apparently out, less than two months after he started, while diplomat L. Paul Bremer is in as the U.S.-designated administrator of the country.
Although the administration may not be pleased with the progress of reconstruction in Iraq, the American public appears to disagree. Eighty-six percent of Americans say things are going well in Iraq now that the major fighting has ended, including 30% who say that things are going very well. That's a more positive reading than we received two weeks ago.
Still, despite the assignment of a civilian (Bremer) as the civil administrator in Iraq, the American public isn't convinced that the war is over. Forty-one percent say the war is over for all intents and purposes, but 58% say that it is not.
Bill Bennett and Gambling
One week after Newsweek and other publications made a stir with their revelations about conservative activist and writer Bill Bennett's predilections for high-stakes gambling, Bennett attempted to forestall the criticism by announcing: "I have done too much gambling, and this is not an example I wish to set. Therefore, my gambling days are over."
New Gallup data suggest Bennett may not be in as much hot water as he thinks he is, at least as far as the public's opinion is concerned.
In our annual Values and Beliefs poll, we included gambling in a list of 16 issues and asked if each was morally acceptable or unacceptable.
Sixty-three percent of Americans said that gambling is morally acceptable, while 34% said that it is not. That puts gambling right at the top of the "acceptable" list, essentially tied with five activities whose moral acceptability ranges from 60% to 66% (including divorce, medical testing of animals, and buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur).
At the bottom of the list are such things as married men and women having affairs, polygamy, and cloning humans -- all of which are seen as morally acceptable by less than 10% of the American population.
Of interest is the fact that 55% of conservatives and 59% of Republicans say that gambling is morally acceptable, but only 40% of those who report attending church weekly agree.
Alcohol Abuse
The potentially harmful effects of alcohol were underscored with the recent resignation of Iowa State basketball coach Larry Eustachy, who was forced from his job amid news reports (and pictures) of his drinking, partying, and fraternizing with students and others at late-night parties. Eustachy admitted that he was an alcoholic and that he was seeking treatment.
Most Americans appear to be able to drink alcohol responsibly, at least in their own eyes. Our latest Gallup Poll update shows that only 21% of drinkers say they sometimes drink more than they should. Men, particularly young men, are much more likely than others to report drinking more than they should. But the "drink more that I should" percentage is considerably lower now than it has been in the past.
Twenty-eight percent of Americans say that drinking has been a cause of trouble in their family, and that percentage is also lower than it has been over the last several years.
About two-thirds of Americans drink alcohol at least occasionally. Men are more likely to drink than women are, and drinking is less and less prevalent as one gets older. Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats to drink.
Middle East Peace
Secretary of State Colin Powell met with both Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas over the weekend, in an effort to push forward the proposed "road map" for peace. This week marks the 55th anniversary of the creation of the state of Israel in May 1948.
Although Americans' sympathies lie with Israel in the conflict (based on responses to Gallup polling conducted over the past decade), there is strong interest in the peace process moving forward. Last year, for example, 58% of Americans said that the development of a peaceful solution to the Palestinian/Israeli situation in the Middle East should be a very important policy goal of the United States, and another 32% said it was a somewhat important goal.
Bush Job Approval
Some Democrats -- most notably Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia -- have criticized President Bush's now famous May 1 arrested landing on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln. The widely seen images of the president leaving the cockpit garbed in full jet pilot regalia, helmet under his arm, were considered to represent not only a shrewdly appealing photo opportunity for the president, but also as material that may well appear in campaign commercials in the forthcoming presidential election. Critics point out that the aircraft carrier had to be slowed down in order to allow the president's trip to take place before the ship arrived at San Diego, and that Bush could have made the trip by helicopter.
At any rate, I haven't seen any polling yet that deals specifically with the public's opinion of the event. But Bush job approval doesn't seem to have been affected either way during the time period of the landing. His job approval was at 70% in our April 22-23 poll, and is at 69% in the May 5-7 poll completed last week. In fact, Bush's job approval ratings have been remarkably steady across eight different polls conducted since the war with Iraq got underway on March 19 -- operating within a range of only two points between 69% and 71%.
Billy Graham
Christian evangelist Billy Graham ended an evangelical crusade at San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday, drawing more than a quarter of a million people across the four days of the event. The 84-year old Graham led the crusade despite his generally frail health and Parkinson's Disease.
Graham, who was catapulted to fame in the 1950s after drawing standing-room-only crowds to crusades in Los Angeles, has appeared on Gallup's top-10 list of most admired men more than any other man since 1948. Graham has been on the list 45 times, including this past year, when he was No. 6 on the list.
Graham's image has taken somewhat of a hit in recent years, as transcripts and records showing that he made what appeared to be anti-Semitic remarks in conversations with President Richard Nixon have become available. Graham's overall favorable rating in a September 2002 poll was 60%, with a 22% unfavorable rating. His unfavorable ratings were particularly high among liberals, those living in the East, and Democrats.
Abortion
Abortion was back in the news last week as anti-abortion militant James Kopp was sentenced to 25 years to life for the murder of an abortion doctor in Buffalo, N.Y., in 1998.
New Gallup Poll data show that general attitudes toward abortion have remained remarkably constant over the years. Although the majority of Americans have reservations about abortion, only 19% say that abortion should be outlawed altogether, according to our just-completed Values and Beliefs survey. Twenty-three percent say abortion should be totally legal, while the rest -- 57% -- say it should be legal only under certain circumstances.
Forty-eight percent of Americans are pro-choice and 45% pro-life, based on a question that asks them to choose between these two labels.
There is almost no difference between men and women in their choice of one or the other of these two labels; the biggest differentiators are politics and ideology (Democrats and liberals much more likely than Republicans to be pro-choice) and age (younger Americans are more likely to be pro-choice than those who are older).