As almost everyone has heard by now, the California recall ballot has two parts: the vote on recalling Gov. Gray Davis, and the vote among a long list of candidates for Davis' successor if the recall gets majority support.
Gallup's weekend CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll in California suggests that the recall measure has a good chance of succeeding (i.e., that Davis will be kicked out of office). The results also suggest that movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger is the clear front-runner to succeed Davis as governor, at least at this point.
It's always good to raise caution about preliminary polling results. The election is almost two months away, campaigning has barely gotten underway, and the dynamics of this type of recall election are totally new to voters and analysts who are trying to figure out what is happening. There's little question that Davis will be using every asset at his command to derail the recall train moving down the track. Many observers also argue that Schwarzenegger's candidacy will begin to suffer as voters go beyond his celebrity and begin to look carefully at his qualifications and positions on the issues.
With that said, however, weekend polling suggests that voters in California are taking Schwarzenegger seriously at this point. Majorities of California voters agree that Schwarzenegger is better qualified to run the state than a career politician and that he has the personal qualities needed for a governor. He has a significantly higher percent of California voters saying they will consider voting for him than is the case with any other candidate we tested in the poll.
The poll results also suggest that voter acceptance of the candidates is not based on name recognition alone. A number of candidates included in the poll who are well-known to Californians -- such as former baseball commissioner (and star organizer of the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics) Peter Ueberroth, last year's Republican nominee Bill Simon, and Arianna Huffington (columnist and ex-wife of former California Congressman Michael Huffington) -- all have much lower standings in the poll than Schwarzenegger.
Impact of the Recall on 2004 Presidential Race
Is all of the media focus on California's recall election and Schwarzenegger good news or bad news for George W. Bush and the 2004 Democratic presidential candidates?
The shift in focus from the 2004 presidential race to the California recall election has been amazingly fast. Last week, Democratic candidate Howard Dean's picture graced the cover of both TIME and Newsweek. This week, it's Schwarzenegger on both covers.
On Monday, the New York Times carried a front-page article titled "Bush's Task in California: Avoid Recall Fray." The story argued that Bush is treading very carefully in terms of his involvement in the recall situation. California is generally a Democratic state. Despite repeated Bush campaign trips there in the 2000 campaign, it went for Gore. Bush's strategy team probably does not consider California to be a likely victory for the Republican ticket in 2004. Still, California's 55 electoral votes are an almost irresistible lure for presidential candidates.
Bush could anger Democrats, even more than he has already, if he appears to interfere in California state politics by coming out strongly in favor of the recall of Democratic Davis. (Not surprisingly, Gallup's weekend data show Republicans in California are more likely to support the recall idea than are Democrats.)
Bush could conceivably also anger conservative Republicans if he strongly endorses Schwarzenegger, who is considered to be too moderate by some Republicans. So as the Times headline suggests, Bush is apparently sitting on the sidelines in California, at least for the short term.
All in all, the media's heavy focus on California may not be so bad for the president. The Bush re-election campaign might welcome a vacation from the relentless media headlines focusing on the infamous 16 words in Bush's State of the Union address, or other negative takes on the Iraqi situation or on the economy.
Some Democratic presidential candidates are probably worried about the fact that the California race is stealing valuable media time that they could be using to raise their national profile and standing among Democrats.
Lesser-known Democratic candidates are affected the most. Despite the recent surge in media coverage of Dean and his movement up to second-place status among registered Democrats in a recent national Gallup Poll, a Pew Research Center survey finds that 54% of registered voters nationwide say they have never heard of Dean. Similarly, 77% have never heard of Dennis Kucinich, 59% have never heard of former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, and 54% have not heard of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
All of these candidates will have less media exposure over the next two months than would otherwise be the case if the California recall were not happening, and thus they will lose chances to increase their name awareness.
By the same token, the California situation may actually benefit Joe Lieberman, Dick Gephardt, and John Kerry -- the three Democratic candidates who are already fairly well-known nationwide.
Presidential Approval
President Bush remains at his Crawford, Texas, ranch, playing host to members of his administration and teasing reporters about the intense Central Texas heat. He's flies out periodically for fund-raising trips.
The last Gallup Poll measuring presidential job approval (completed Aug. 6) shows that Bush's rating has stabilized at 60%, providing some comfort to administration officials who were undoubtedly worried that Bush's rating would continue to fall into the mid- and lower 50% range. The job approval ratings trend of Bush's father, however, shows that that elder Bush's ratings also stabilized in the summer of 1991 -- only to begin plummeting in the fall.
Economy
Gallup's economic ratings for August don't look any better than they have been in recent months. Just 25% of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good -- little different from the ratings of the last six months.
At the same time, there are faint stirrings of optimism about the direction of the economy. In March, just 23% of Americans said that the economy was getting better, while 67% said it was getting worse. For the last three months, we've seen an improvement. More than 40% said that the economy was getting better in May, June and July -- 42% in May, 45% in June, and 43% in July.
But now this optimism measure appears to be stuck, just like the ratings of current economic conditions. In August, 44% of Americans say economic conditions are getting better, while 45% say they are getting worse.
Economists are predicting a recovery, the stock market is up, and the hard economic data released by the government look promising. Why haven't Americans bought into the conventional wisdom that things are looking up?
One answer to that question has to do with the jobs situation. The number of Americans mentioning unemployment as the top problem facing the nation jumped to 17% this month, up from 8% in early March. (Thirty-six percent of Americans mention some other aspect of the economy in response to this most important problem question.)
The latest Gallup Poll also shows that only 17% of Americans think that it is a good time to find a quality job, one of the lowest ratings on this question in the two years Gallup has been asking it on a monthly basis. In short, there's absolutely no sign that the public is seeing any light at the end of the unemployment tunnel.
Additionally, in response to a different question, 49% of Americans rate the current employment situation in the U.S. as poor, and 40% rate it "only fair," leaving only 10% who rate it "good."(Almost no one rates the current job situation as excellent.)
Kobe Bryant
Kobe Bryant made a quick -- but extraordinarily well-covered -- appearance in court in Eagle, Colo., last week, responding to charges that he sexually assaulted a 19-year-old woman while visiting there in June.
The trial itself is months away, but it's clear that perceptions of the case are already beginning to divide along racial lines, just as occurred during the O.J. Simpson trial in the mid-1990s.
We asked Americans two of the same questions we asked about O.J. Simpson: how sympathetic are you to Bryant, and do you think the charges against him are true or not true? The responses to both questions show a major racial gap: 63% of blacks are sympathetic to Bryant, compared to 40% of whites. Sixty-eight percent of blacks say that the charges against Bryant are either definitely or probably not true, compared to 41% of whites who feel that way.
Terrorism and the War With Iraq
The tragic bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia, last week underscored the continuing threat of terrorism around the world, despite extensive efforts to combat terrorism since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington, D.C.
Terrorism is still an important concern to Americans. Although the economy is by far the No. 1 response when Americans are asked to name the top problem facing the country today, 16% of Americans say that the top problems are terrorism or national security. Only 5% now mention war or the war with Iraq as the No. 1 problem.
The White House has argued persistently this year that the invasion of Iraq and the toppling of Saddam Hussein's regime were important links in the war against terrorism. That type of argument is well advised. Our data show that when given a choice, Americans say that capturing or killing Osama bin Laden is more important than capturing or killing Saddam Hussein, by a 41% to 29% margin.
Business Sector Ratings
What do the legal field, the healthcare industry, and the oil and gas industry all have in common? They are at the very bottom of Gallup's annual round-up of the images of major industries and business sectors in the country. The ratings are based on the results of a simple question in which respondents are asked to rate each of a long list of industry and business sectors as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative.
The three mentioned above all have net negative images, which means that more Americans view them negatively than view them positively. The poor standing of these three industry sectors can be contrasted with the computer industry, which tops the list with a net positive rating of 64%.