GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, N.J. -- Well over half of Democrats indicate that they are not paying close attention to news accounts about the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, and a number of the candidates are well-known to less than half of Democrats at this point.
While Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman -- who is the best-known of the candidates -- continues to lead the national trial heat ballot among Democrats, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean does better among just those Democrats who are paying attention and/or those who are knowledgeable about the major candidates in the race.
Few Americans -- and Democrats -- Paying Attention to the Democratic Nomination
A good deal of the attention in the race has been focused on the key early primary and caucus states -- particularly New Hampshire and Iowa. Candidates are spending a great deal of time in those states, and experience in past election years shows that doing well there helps a candidate gather momentum and do well in the key primaries that follow in February and March and that eventually determine the winner.
Voters in New Hampshire and Iowa may have become well acquainted with the Democratic candidates by this point, but elsewhere across the country, the majority of Democrats are not monitoring the battle for the Democratic nomination with a great deal of attention.
The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Aug. 25-26, asked Americans how closely they have been following the news about the candidates vying for the Democratic nomination for president. Only 10% of Democrats say they are following the news about the candidates very closely, with an additional 25% saying they are following somewhat closely. The percentage of Democrats following the race closely is roughly the same as the percentage of Republicans who are paying close attention.
The focus from Democrats on their party's race has increased only slightly from April, when 31% said they were following it closely. Obviously, despite the active campaigning that has taken place all summer, the average rank-and-file Democrat across the country has yet to tune into the race in any meaningful way.
| How Closely Have You Been Following the News
About the Candidates Running for the Democratic Nomination for
President? Based on 443 Democrats and Democratic Leaners |
 |
Lieberman Viewed Most Favorably of Democratic Candidates, Many Candidates Unknown to Democrats
The low level of attention to the campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination is reflected in the relatively low levels of name identification for a number of the Democratic candidates.
A question in the August survey asked Democrats whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates running for the Democratic nomination in 2004 -- or if they had never heard of them.
One indication of a candidate's name identification can be calculated by looking at the percentage of Democrats nationwide who know enough about each candidate in order to be able to give an opinion. The results range from 73% of Democrats who have an opinion of Lieberman to just 22% who have an opinion of Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.
|
Name Identification of Democratic Candidates |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
Name ID (% Who Know Enough about Candidate to Have an Opinion of Him or Her) |
|
% |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
73 |
|
Al Sharpton |
65 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
64 |
|
John Kerry |
56 |
|
Bob Graham |
50 |
|
Howard Dean |
43 |
|
Wesley Clark |
42 |
|
John Edwards |
38 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
35 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
22 |
It's clear that Lieberman benefits from the widespread visibility he acquired as the Democratic Party's vice-presidential nominee in 2000. Just three other candidates have more than 50% name identification -- the Rev. Al Sharpton, Missouri Congressman (and former House minority leader) Dick Gephardt, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.
At least half of the Democrats surveyed have never heard about or do not have an opinion about the following candidates or potential candidates: Kucinich (78% never heard of him or do not have an opinion); Carol Moseley Braun (65%); John Edwards (62%); Wesley Clark (58%); Dean (57%); and Bob Graham (50%).
The graph below displays the favorable and unfavorable ratings for each of these 10 current or potential candidates.
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
53 |
20 |
17 |
10 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
49 |
15 |
23 |
13 |
|
John Kerry |
43 |
13 |
32 |
12 |
|
Wesley Clark |
33 |
9 |
42 |
16 |
|
Howard Dean |
32 |
11 |
42 |
15 |
|
Bob Graham |
27 |
23 |
30 |
20 |
|
John Edwards |
26 |
12 |
42 |
20 |
|
Al Sharpton |
20 |
45 |
23 |
12 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
20 |
15 |
52 |
13 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
13 |
9 |
65 |
13 |
Other findings:
- All Democratic candidates have a net favorable rating (more people have a favorable rather than unfavorable opinion), with the exception of Sharpton. Forty-five percent of Democrats have a negative opinion of Sharpton, while only 20% have a favorable opinion.
- Lieberman is most liked by Democrats, with a 53% favorable rating. Following Lieberman is Gephardt, with a favorable rating of 49%, and John Kerry, with a rating of 43%.
- Roughly one-third of Democrats in the poll have a favorable opinion of Clark and Dean. Slightly over a quarter have a positive opinion about Graham and Edwards. At the bottom of the list are Sharpton and Braun, each with a favorable rating of 20%, and Kucinich, with a 13% favorable rating.
- The size of these favorable ratings is based in part on a candidate's name recognition. Several candidates with low overall name identification -- including Clark and Dean -- have a quite positive favorable-to-unfavorable opinion ratio among those who know enough about them to express an opinion.
Lieberman Tops List of Candidates Democrats Would Support for 2004 Nomination
The differing levels of name identification correlate with each candidate's overall level of support. When Democrats are asked which candidate they will most likely support for the Democratic nomination in 2004, Lieberman wins easily. Twenty-three percent of Democrats who are registered to vote say they would choose Lieberman as their candidate, followed by 13% who are for Gephardt, 12% for Dean, and 10% for Kerry.
Lieberman has remained at the top of this list since Gallup first asked the question in April. Since that time, Gephardt's support has remained steady, while Kerry's has declined slightly and Dean's has increased. Since July, however, Dean's and Kerry's support has shown little change, while Lieberman's support has increased by about five percentage points (from 18% to 23%).
| Democratic Presidential Trial Heat Based on 397 Democrats and Democratic Leaners Who Are Registered to Vote |
 |
| August 25-26, 2003 |
Lieberman, Dean Top List Among Democrats Paying Close Attention to the Race
As noted, there is little question that Lieberman does well in the national trial heat balloting by virtue of his high level of name identification, while Dean, Edwards, and others are handicapped by the fact that many potential Democratic voters still do not know who they are.
One way to attempt to correct for this is to look at the candidate preferences only among those Democrats who indicate that they are paying close attention to news about the race.
| Democratic Presidential Trial Heat Based on 152 Democrats and Democratic Leaners Who Are Paying Very/Somewhat Close Attention to the Nomination |
 |
| August 25-26, 2003 |
The major difference we find among this relatively small group of Democrats is the stronger positioning of Dean, who jumps from essentially being tied for second place among all Democrats surveyed to a more clear second place position (behind Lieberman).
Among Democrats Who "Know" the Top Candidates, Dean's Support Exceeds 20%
A second way to analyze candidates' support levels is to isolate only those Democrats who say that they have heard of four of the leading candidates for the party's nomination: Lieberman, Gephardt, Kerry, and Dean. This produces a relatively small sample of 206 Democrats, but gives us at least a suggestion of what would happen if and when each of the candidates is equally well-known.
| Democratic Presidential Trial Heat Based on 206 Democrats and Democratic Leaners Who Have Heard of Lieberman, Gephardt, Kerry, and Dean |
 |
| August 25-26, 2003 |
The key here is the jump in support for Dean. Even though this group of Democrats claim to know Dean, Lieberman, Gephardt, and Kerry, Dean ties with Lieberman for the lead among this subset of Democrats.
These results are consistent with polls showing Dean doing well among Democratic voters in New Hampshire and Iowa -- voters who presumably have paid more attention to the race than the average Democrat across the country and who presumably have gotten to know the candidates better than the average Democrat has.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 25-26, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. First, ... How about... [RANDOM ORDER]
[BASED ON –443—DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS]
A. Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
43% |
13 |
32 |
12 |
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
38% |
7 |
33 |
22 |
|
1999 Feb 19-21 |
33% |
6 |
41 |
20 |
|
1998 May 8-10 |
28% |
10 |
39 |
23 |
B. Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
53 |
20 |
17 |
10 |
|
|
2003 Mar 29-30 |
51 |
16 |
12 |
21 |
|
|
2002 Dec 16-17 |
54 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
|
|
2001 Mar 9-11 ^ |
62 |
10 |
11 |
17 |
|
|
2000 Dec 2-4 † |
68 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
|
|
2000 Nov 13-15 † |
62 |
10 |
9 |
19 |
|
|
2000 Sep 15-17 †‡ |
65 |
8 |
11 |
16 |
|
|
2000 Aug 18-19 †‡ |
65 |
7 |
11 |
17 |
|
|
^ |
WORDING: Senator Joe Lieberman. |
||||
|
† |
WORDING: Joe Lieberman. |
||||
|
‡ |
Based on registered voters. |
||||
C. North Carolina Senator, John Edwards
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
26% |
12 |
42 |
20 |
D. Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
49 |
15 |
23 |
13 |
|
|
2002 Dec 16-17 ^ |
51 |
13 |
20 |
16 |
|
|
2002 Sep 23-26 ^ |
52 |
14 |
19 |
15 |
|
|
2001 Aug 3-5 ^ |
52 |
11 |
22 |
15 |
|
|
2000 Oct 25-28 ^ |
54 |
10 |
16 |
20 |
|
|
1998 Dec 28-29 ^ |
55 |
12 |
15 |
18 |
|
|
1998 Oct 9-12 ^ † |
54 |
14 |
15 |
17 |
|
|
^ |
WORDING: House Democratic Leader, Dick Gephardt. |
||||
|
† |
Asked of half sample. |
||||
E. Florida Senator, Bob Graham
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
27% |
23 |
30 |
20 |
F. Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
32% |
11 |
42 |
15 |
G. The Reverend Al Sharpton
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
20% |
45 |
23 |
12 |
|
1992 May 7-10 |
10% |
29 |
52 |
9 |
H. Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
13% |
9 |
65 |
13 |
I. Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
20% |
15 |
52 |
13 |
J. Retired General, Wesley Clark
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
33% |
9 |
42 |
16 |
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED:John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, Bob Graham, Howard Dean, Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun, Wesley Clark]
[BASED ON –443—DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS]
[BASED ON –397—DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE]
|
2003Aug 25-26 |
||
|
National Adults |
Registered Voters |
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
23 |
23 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
13 |
13 |
|
Howard Dean |
11 |
12 |
|
John Kerry |
9 |
10 |
|
Bob Graham |
6 |
4 |
|
John Edwards |
5 |
5 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
5 |
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
4 |
|
Wesley Clark |
2 |
2 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
|
Other |
2 |
2 |
|
No One |
8 |
7 |
|
No Opinion |
12 |
12 |
Trends for Comparison:
|
2003 |
2003 |
2003 |
2003 |
2003 |
||||||
|
NA |
RV |
NA |
RV |
NA |
RV |
NA |
RV |
NA |
RV |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
17 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
23 |
22 |
|
Dick Gephardt |
14 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
17 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
|
Howard Dean |
14 |
15 |
10 |
11 |
6 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
|
John Kerry |
12 |
12 |
16 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
16 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
|
John Edwards |
6 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
9 |
8 |
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
|
Bob Graham |
5 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
Wesley Clark |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Other |
3 |
4 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
No One |
6 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
No Opinion |
12 |
10 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
9 |
9 |
How closely have you been following the news about the candidates running for the Democratic nomination for president—very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?
|
Very |
Some- |
Not too closely |
|
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
National Adults |
|||||
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
8 |
26 |
37 |
29 |
* |
|
Democrats/Democratic Leaners |
|||||
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
10 |
25 |
39 |
26 |
* |
|
2003 Apr 22-23 |
4 |
27 |
40 |
29 |
-- |
|
Republicans/Republican Leaners |
|||||
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
6 |
29 |
36 |
29 |
-- |
