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Five Democratic Candidates Share Support

Five Democratic Candidates Share Support

by David W. Moore

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With retired General Wesley Clark poised to announce whether he will compete to be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee in 2004, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows the general would likely be a competitive candidate. Five candidates including Clark bunch together with low double-digit support, led by Congressman Dick Gephardt. If Clark does not run, support among the top four candidates is evenly distributed, as Senator Joe Lieberman has lost his front-runner position -- dropping 10 percentage points support in the past two weeks.

The poll, conducted Sept. 8-10, finds Gephardt in the lead with 16% support among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, followed by former Vermont Governor Howard Dean (14%), Lieberman (13%), Senator John Kerry (12%), and Clark (10%). In a poll two weeks ago, Lieberman received support from 23% of Democratic voters and led by 10 percentage points over his next closest rival. Clark received just 2% of the vote, suggesting that recent publicity about his pending announcement has boosted his name recognition and support.

 

Support for Democratic Candidates for President
Among Registered Democrats and Independents Who Lean to Democratic Party

Congressman Dick Gephardt

Former Vt. Gov. Howard Dean

U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman

U.S. Senator John Kerry

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark

%

%

%

%

%

Sept. 8-10

16

14

13

12

10

Sept. 8-10

17

16

14

15

ra

Aug. 25-26

13

12

23

10

2

Aug. 4-6

15

15

18

12

na

July 25-27

16

11

21

15

na

June 12-18

17

7

21

13

na

May-June

14

5

20

17

na

April 22-23

16

6

22

18

na

ra = Clark's vote was reallocated based on who respondents said would be their second choice after Clark.

na = not asked



The poll shows that Clark's candidacy would draw support from all of the four other major candidates, but that Kerry would probably be most affected. The Massachusetts Senator receives 12% of the vote with Clark in the running, but 15% with Clark not a candidate. Dean loses two percentage points to Clark, while Lieberman and Gephardt each lose one point. (The rest of Clark's support comes from the other candidates and otherwise unsure voters.)

Other findings from the poll:

  • The support of two candidates reflects a major gender gap.
  • Clark is in first place among men, receiving 16% support, but ties for sixth place among women with just 5% of their vote.
  • Gephardt receives much greater support from women (21%) than from men (12%).
  • The support of most candidates is not related to voters' political philosophy, but Dean is a major exception.
  • Among liberals, Dean receives 29% support, compared with 11% among moderates and 6% among conservatives.
  • Kerry also receives little support among conservative Democrats (7%), but does about equally well among moderates (15%) and liberals (13%).
  • The other three top candidates receive about the same percentage of the vote from each group.
  • Gephardt is the first choice among conservatives and moderates, and the second choice (behind Dean) among liberals.
  • Support for some of the candidates is highly related to how closely people follow politics.
  • Kerry and Clark fare especially well among people who follow national politics very closely, with both candidates' support falling dramatically among people who are not paying attention.

 

Candidate Support Compared By
How Closely Voters Are Following National Politics

Gephardt

Dean

Lieberman

Kerry

Clark

Follow politics:

%

%

%

%

%

Very closely

15

17

7

21

18

Somewhat closely

18

15

13

13

7

Not closely

16

10

18

3

6



  • Lieberman, by contrast, receives much more support from the inattentive voters than among the more attentive ones -- suggesting that it is Lieberman's name recognition from being the vice presidential candidate in 2000, not his current campaigning, that accounts for his standing.
  • Support for several of the candidates is also somewhat related to how frequently people vote.
  • Dean comes in first among Democrats who say they "always" vote, receiving 20% of these voters' support -- compared with just 11% among less frequent voters.
  • Gephardt, Kerry, and Clark all receive just one to two percentage points more support among the more frequent voters than among the less frequent voters.

 

Candidate Support Compared By
How Frequently People Vote

Gephardt

Dean

Lieberman

Kerry

Clark

How Often Vote:

%

%

%

%

%

Always

17

20

11

14

11

Almost always

16

11

15

12

9

Part of time/ seldom/ never^

-

-

-

-

-

^Too few cases to report



  • Lieberman is the only one of the five candidates to receive less support among the more frequent voters, again reflecting Lieberman's general name recognition from being the vice presidential candidate in 2000.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18+, conducted Sept. 8-10, 2003. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 407 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

48. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED: Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Florida Senator, Bob Graham, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun, Retired General, Wesley Clark]

 

49. If Wesley Clark DOES NOT run for the Democratic nomination for president in 2004, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the nomination. [ROTATED: Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, Connecticut Senator, Joe Lieberman, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Missouri Congressman, Dick Gephardt, Florida Senator, Bob Graham, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Former Illinois Senator, Carol Moseley Braun]

 

BASED ON -- 480 -- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

 

BASED ON -- 407 -- DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE

2003 Sep 8-10

2003 Sep 8-10

Q.48

Q.48-49 (Combined Responses)

NA

RV

NA

RV

%

%

%

%

Dick Gephardt

15

16

17

17

Howard Dean

13

14

15

16

Joe Lieberman

12

13

13

14

John Kerry

11

12

13

15

Wesley Clark

9

10

--

--

Carol Moseley Braun

5

4

5

4

Bob Graham

5

5

6

6

John Edwards

5

5

5

6

Al Sharpton

3

2

3

2

Dennis Kucinich

2

2

2

2

Other

1

1

1

1

No One

5

4

5

4

No Opinion

14

12

15

13

RV = Registered Voters

NA = National Adults

 

Trends for Comparison:

2003
Aug 25-26

2003
Aug 4-6

2003
Jul 25-27

2003
Jun 12-18

2003
May-Jun

2003
Apr 22-23

NA

RV

NA

RV

NA

RV

NA

RV

NA

RV

NA

RV

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Joe Lieberman

23

23

17

18

20

21

20

21

21

20

23

22

Dick Gephardt

13

13

14

15

14

16

15

17

14

14

15

16

Howard Dean

11

12

14

15

10

11

6

7

5

5

6

6

John Kerry

9

10

12

12

16

15

13

13

16

17

17

18

John Edwards

5

5

6

5

6

6

7

6

7

6

9

8

Carol Moseley Braun

4

5

5

5

6

6

6

5

3

4

4

4

Bob Graham

6

4

5

5

5

4

6

7

4

4

5

5

Al Sharpton

4

4

4

4

5

5

7

6

7

7

3

3

Dennis Kucinich

1

1

2

2

2

2

1

1

3

2

3

3

Wesley Clark

2

2

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Other

2

2

3

4

*

*

1

1

1

1

1

1

No One

8

7

6

5

3

2

5

5

4

5

5

5

No Opinion

12

12

12

10

13

12

13

11

15

15

9

9

RV = Registered Voters

NA = National Adults

* Less than 0.5%

 


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/9247/five-democratic-candidates-share-support.aspx
Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A
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