GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll in California shows that the majority of California voters favor the recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis. The poll also shows that Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger is ahead of all other candidates when voters are asked who should replace Davis if he is recalled.
The poll, conducted Sept. 25-27, after last Wednesday night's televised candidate debate, indicates that the voters most likely to turn out to vote in this election are those holding the most anti-Davis sentiments, suggesting that the governor's troubles are compounded by a lack of enthusiasm among those who are his natural supporters. The recall is favored by 55% of all registered voters in California, but by 63% of those deemed by Gallup to be most likely to vote.
| As I mentioned earlier, there will be two questions on the ballot on October 7th. First, voters will be asked whether Governor Gray Davis should be removed from office or not. If the recall election were being held today, would you vote to -- remove Davis from office, or would you vote to keep Davis in office? |
 |
| Sep 25-27, 2003 |
Voters who watched last Wednesday night's televised debate involving five of the candidates -- the only debate in which Schwarzenegger is expected to appear -- believe that Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock did the best job. Despite this strong showing, however, the plurality of Republicans believe that McClintock should step aside in favor of Schwarzenegger.
Interest in Oct. 7 Election and Projected Turnout Fueled by Anti-Davis Sentiment
One of the major uncertainties surrounding this recall measure involves voter turnout.
The California recall election is to a significant degree sailing in uncharted waters. Special elections usually generate lower turnout than regular presidential or congressional elections. But this election has received unprecedented media attention across California (and for that matter, across the United States), and exactly how many voters will turn out and who they are is one of the significant questions to be answered in the analysis of how the election is proceeding.
The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that 76% of California's registered voter population claims to be either extremely or very interested in the election, and only 8% say they are only a little interested or not interested at all. Additionally, 60% of registered voters say they are absolutely certain to vote, while most of the rest say they are either extremely or very likely to vote in the election.
It is immediately apparent in analyzing the data that both interest in the election and self-reported likelihood to vote are significantly correlated with disapproval of the job being done by Gov. Davis. Thus, it appears that turnout will be driven to a significant degree by anti-Davis feelings, suggesting deeper problems for the governor than might be expected based on an analysis of the sentiments of the total voter base in the state.
The table below presents the comparative level of interest in the election and self-reported likelihood of voting among those who approve of Davis' performance as governor, and among those who disapprove:
|
Interest in Election and Self-Reported Likelihood of Voting, by Approval of Gray Davis Job Performance |
||
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
|
|
Extremely interested in recall election |
34% |
45% |
|
Extremely and very interested in recall election |
71% |
80% |
|
Absolutely likely to vote |
51% |
64% |
|
Extremely likely to vote |
65% |
79% |
As can be seen, those who disapprove of Davis' performance as governor are both more likely to say they are extremely interested in following the news about the recall, and also significantly more likely to say they are absolutely likely to vote.
Davis has characterized the recall effort as purely partisan, in which Republicans are attempting to use the recall mechanism to overturn the results of last fall's regular election in which a Democrat (Davis) was elected to office.
But the data from the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll show that this is not playing out with the public as a totally partisan issue.
Davis has failed to maintain the allegiance of his own party. A full 44% of Democrats in California say they disapprove of Davis' performance as governor. While this is much lower than the 77% of independents and 92% of Republicans who disapprove, it is far from the more typical picture in which the sentiment about an elected official between members of the two parties forms a mirror image -- i.e., that as many members of the politician's own party approve as members of the opposite party disapprove. Additionally, as will be seen below, about 3 out of 10 Democrats say they will vote to recall the governor.
Probable Voters
Gallup used the responses to the questions about interest in the election and self-reported turnout intentions to narrow the overall sample of the California adult population down to the 51% who can be considered most likely to vote. That figure is based on estimates of likely turnout, based on recent California elections.
The data reviewed above documents the degree to which both interest and turnout intention is correlated with anti-Davis sentiment. Thus, it is not surprising to find that voters deemed by Gallup most likely to vote:
- Have a more unfavorable opinion of Davis than does the less probable group
- Are significantly more likely to disapprove of the performance of Gray Davis in office than is the less probable group
As will be seen in the sections below, this means that probable voters, at least at this point, are significantly more likely than all registered voters to say they will vote "yes" on the basic recall measure (and also more likely to support Republican Schwarzenegger than Democrat Cruz Bustamante).
It should be noted that the estimation of the likely voter pool at this point for this very unusual election has a higher than usual degree of uncertainty attached to it, primarily because it is a special election involving an unusual recall provision, and one involving a major media star as a leading candidate. Usual voting patterns may well be disrupted.
Recall Passes at This Point
Support for the recall of Gov. Gray Davis among all registered voters in California is now at 55%. This constitutes a significant drop from the 64% who favored the recall in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in early August, shortly after it became clear that the recall election was likely to occur.
But support has dropped much less among the group of voters in California who can be considered most likely to vote on Election Day. Even as the larger group of Californians have become less likely to say they support the recall, the hard-core group of probable voters have been firmer in holding on to their pro-recall sentiment. In the early August poll, 69% of this group said they would vote for the recall; that figure is now only slightly lower, at 63%.
| Percentage Saying They Would Vote to Remove Davis From Office |
 |
Here's a look at the percentage voting "yes" on the recall measure among various subgroups of the California population:
|
Recall Vote Among Subgroups |
|
|
All data (except "Probable voter group" row) based on registered voters |
|
|
Will Vote "Yes" to Recall Gray Davis |
|
|
% |
|
|
All registered voters |
55 |
|
Probable voter group |
63 |
|
Democrats |
29 |
|
Independents |
56 |
|
Republicans |
85 |
|
Approve of Davis job performance |
2 |
|
Disapprove of Davis job performance |
79 |
|
Southland |
59 |
|
Bay area |
32 |
|
Rest of state |
63 |
Schwarzenegger Ahead in Race to Replace Gov. Davis, Particularly Among Likely Voters
Republican Schwarzenegger and Democratic Lt. Gov. Bustamante come in significantly ahead of Republican McClintock, Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, and Independent Arianna Huffington when California voters are asked to either choose among this group of five candidates, or to name another candidate out of the list of 135 running for governor, as their preference to replace Gov. Davis if the recall question succeeds.
Among registered voters, Schwarzenegger leads Bustamante by only six points, 34% to 28%. Among the probable-voter sample, however, Schwarzenegger's lead over Bustamante expands to 15 points, 40% to 25%.
| Which of These Candidates Would You Be Most Likely to Vote for if the Election Were Held Today? |
 |
| Sep 25-27, 2003 |
In both samples, Republican McClintock comes in third, with 16% and 18% of the vote, respectively.
Although Camejo and Huffington were included in Wednesday night's debate sponsored by the California Broadcasters Association, neither is generating any significant support from California voters. The almost complete absence of support in the poll for Huffington is perhaps most significant, given her dominant presence during the debate, and the publicity that her exchanges with Schwarzenegger received in the news media coverage of the debate the next day.
Only 2% of registered voters volunteer that they would vote for a candidate other than the five listed for them, while 14% of registered voters and 9% of probable voters say they won't vote for anyone, or have no opinion.
Here's the breakout of the projected vote by party identification among registered voters:
|
Vote for Candidate to Replace Gray Davis, by Partisanship |
|||
|
Democrats |
Independents |
Republicans |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican |
16 |
35 |
56 |
|
Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat |
56 |
21 |
3 |
|
Columnist Arianna Huffington, an independent |
2 |
3 |
-- |
|
State Sen. Tom McClintock, a Republican |
2 |
18 |
29 |
|
Financial Advisor, Peter Miguel Camejo of the Green Party |
5 |
7 |
1 |
McClintock Scores Well in Debate, but This Apparently Didn't Help Him Gain Votes
Last Wednesday night's televised debate, the only one in which Schwarzenegger has appeared so far (and apparently the only one in which he will appear between now and the election), was watched by a substantial number of California voters.
How much of Wednesday's gubernatorial debate did you happen to watch -- all or most, about half, only some, hardly any of it, or none?
|
All or most |
About half |
Only some |
Hardly any |
None |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||||
|
36% |
12 |
13 |
12 |
27 |
-- |
|
|
Probable Voters |
||||||
|
43% |
11 |
13 |
9 |
24 |
-- |
As can be seen, probable voters were a little more likely than the total pool of registered voters to say they watched the debate. As noted above, probable voters are more likely than the general pool of registered voters to be anti-Davis, which makes it not surprising to find that 54% of those who say they will vote to recall Davis watched all, most, or half of the debate, compared to just 42% of those who say they will vote to keep Davis in office.
Despite his third-place showing in the trial heat balloting, Republican Tom McClintock received the greatest public recognition for his debate performance. A plurality of both registered voters and probable voters say he did the best job in the debate, far outdistancing Schwarzenegger and Bustamante in second and third places, respectively.
|
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate -- [ROTATED: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Cruz Bustamante, Arianna Huffington, Tom McClintock, (or) Peter Miguel Camejo]? |
||||||
|
BASED ON -- 482 -- REGISTERED VOTERS WHO WATCHED AT LEAST SOME OF THE DEBATE |
||||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
None/ all equally/ no opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||||
|
23 |
14 |
4 |
38 |
11 |
10 |
|
|
Probable Voters |
||||||
|
23 |
12 |
4 |
43 |
10 |
8 |
|
Huffington, despite her dominant presence both during the debate and in media coverage later, was seen as doing the best job by only 4% of debate watchers.
The interesting point, of course, is that Schwarzenegger continues to win the trial heat despite McClintock's strong showing in the debate. There has been a good deal of discussion in California around the issue of whether or not McClintock should leave the race in order to avoid splitting the Republican vote.
Republicans seem to agree that McClintock should step aside. Fifty-six percent of probable voters who are Republicans say that McClintock should drop out, compared to only 19% who say that Schwarzenegger should drop out.
|
Do you think Tom McClintock should -- or should not -- drop out of the race for governor?
|
|||
|
Yes, should |
No, should not |
No opinion |
|
|
Republicans/Republican Leaners Who are Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
48% |
46 |
6 |
|
Republicans/Republican Leaners Who are Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
56% |
40 |
4 |
|
Do you think Arnold Schwarzenegger should -- or should not -- drop out of the race for governor?
|
|||
|
Yes, should |
No, should not |
No opinion |
|
|
Republicans/Republican Leaners Who are Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
21% |
76 |
3 |
|
Republicans/Republican Leaners Who are Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
19% |
78 |
3 |
Lack of Political Experience Not Hurting Schwarzenegger
The majority of Californians -- 56% of registered voters and 59% of probable voters -- think that Schwarzenegger is capable of running the state if he is elected as governor.
Still, a separate question included in the poll indicates that both registered voters and probable voters tend to think that the fact that Schwarzenegger has not run for office nor held office in the past is a minus rather than a plus -- although this perception doesn't seem to be so significant that it is endangering his front-runner status in the forthcoming election.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected sample of 1,007 Californians, 18 years and older, conducted Sept. 25-27, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For results based on the sample of -- 787 -- Californians who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Probable voters include a subsample of -- 581 -- survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the Oct. 7 California recall election, based on their level of interest and intention to vote. This definition assumes a turnout of 51% in the recall election. For results based on the sample of probable voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of -- 356 -- California Republicans or Republican leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of -- 286 -- California Republicans or Republican leaners who are deemed most probable to vote in the recall election, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of -- 368 -- California Democrats or Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of -- 482 -- California registered voters who watched the gubernatorial debate on Wednesday, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
This poll was conducted in both English and Spanish -- 73 out of 1,007 interviews were conducted in Spanish.
5. If the choice were between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Cruz Bustamante, (or) Arnold Schwarzenegger]?
|
|
|
NEITHER (vol.) |
OTHER |
No |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
39% |
52 |
6 |
* |
3 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
36% |
58 |
4 |
* |
2 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||
6. If the choice were between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat and Tom McClintock, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Cruz Bustamante, (or) Tom McClintock]?
|
|
|
NEITHER (vol.) |
OTHER |
No |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
42% |
49 |
6 |
* |
3 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
37% |
56 |
5 |
* |
2 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||
9. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [ITEM A READ, THEN ITEMS B-C ROTATED, THEN ITEM D READ], or have you never heard of this person?
A. Arnold Schwarzenegger
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
59% |
31 |
1 |
9 |
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
79% |
12 |
* |
9 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
63% |
30 |
* |
7 |
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
82% |
10 |
0 |
8 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||
B. Cruz Bustamante
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
44% |
46 |
3 |
7 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
37% |
54 |
3 |
6 |
C. Tom McClintock
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
58% |
18 |
7 |
17 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
62% |
20 |
4 |
14 |
D. Gray Davis
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
35% |
63 |
* |
2 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
29% |
70 |
-- |
1 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Gray Davis is handling his job as governor?
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
|
All Californians |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
32% |
62 |
6 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
29% |
69 |
2 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
24% |
75 |
1 |
Trend for Comparison: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Gray Davis is handling his job as governor? (CNN/Time Poll)
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 8 |
29% |
63 |
8 |
11. Do you [approve/disapprove] strongly or only moderately?
COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.10-11)
|
Strongly approve |
Moderately approve |
Moderately |
Strongly disapprove |
No |
|
|
All Californians |
|||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
14% |
18 |
21 |
41 |
6 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
10% |
19 |
22 |
47 |
2 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
8% |
16 |
18 |
57 |
1 |
13. Do you think the recall election is good for the state of California or bad for the state of California?
|
Good |
Bad |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
45% |
51 |
4 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
50% |
47 |
3 |
Trend for Comparison: Do you think the recall election is good for the state of California or bad for the state of California? (CNN/Time Poll)
|
Good |
Bad |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 8 |
47% |
46 |
7 |
14. Did Bill Clinton's campaigning against the recall of Governor Davis make you -- [ROTATED: more likely to vote to recall Davis, did it not make much difference, or did it make you less likely to vote to recall Davis]?
|
More likely |
No difference |
Less likely |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
18% |
68 |
12 |
2 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
21% |
66 |
11 |
2 |
15. Which of the following do you think will be most important to you when you decide whom to vote for -- [ROTATED: where the candidates stand on issues that matter to you, (or) the leadership skills and vision you think the candidates would have as governor]?
|
Stance on |
Leader- |
BOTH EQUALLY (vol.) |
NEITHER (vol.) |
No |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
43% |
44 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
42% |
44 |
14 |
* |
1 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||
16. Do you think that Arnold Schwarzenegger is -- or is not -- capable of governing the state of California?
|
Yes, is |
No, is not |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
56% |
39 |
5 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
59% |
36 |
5 |
Trend for Comparison: Do you think that Arnold Schwarzenegger is -- or is not -- capable of governing the state of California? (CNN/Time Poll)
|
Yes, is |
No, is not |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 8 |
45% |
39 |
16 |
17. Does the fact that Arnold Schwarzenegger has never run for or held political office make you -- [ROTATED: more likely (or) less likely] -- to vote for him as governor?
|
More |
Less |
NO DIFFERENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
30% |
52 |
17 |
1 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
34% |
47 |
18 |
1 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||
18. Are you a fan of Arnold Schwarzenegger's movies, or not?
|
Yes, |
SOMEWHAT |
No, |
No |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
40% |
15 |
43 |
2 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
39% |
14 |
46 |
1 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||
19. Some Democrats have charged that the recall election in California is part of a nationwide Republican strategy to attempt to overturn the results of elections which don't go their way. Do you believe these charges to be true or not true?
|
True |
Not true |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
32% |
63 |
5 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
31% |
66 |
3 |
22. How much of Wednesday's gubernatorial debate did you happen to watch -- all or most, about half, only some, hardly any of it, or none?
|
All or most |
About half |
Only some |
Hardly any |
None |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
36% |
12 |
13 |
12 |
27 |
-- |
|
Probable Voters |
||||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
43% |
11 |
13 |
9 |
24 |
-- |
23. Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate -- [ROTATED: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Cruz Bustamante, Arianna Huffington, Tom McClintock, (or) Peter Miguel Camejo]?
BASED ON -- 482 -- REGISTERED VOTERS WHO WATCHED AT LEAST SOME OF THE DEBATE
|
|
|
|
|
|
None/ |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
23% |
14 |
4 |
38 |
11 |
10 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
23% |
12 |
4 |
43 |
10 |
8 |
