Either McClintock or Schwarzenegger Likely Winner in California if Other Dropped Out

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- With Arnold Schwarzenegger the Republican front-runner in the California gubernatorial contest, many GOP officials have pressured California State Sen. Tom McClintock to drop out of the race, fearing he will divide the Republican vote and allow Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to win. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted over the past weekend, shows that McClintock does indeed draw support away from Schwarzenegger, though not enough to deprive the actor of the lead. But the poll also shows that if Schwarzenegger were not in the race, McClintock would likely be in first place by a substantial margin rather than behind Bustamante.

The poll of California voters, conducted Sept. 25-27, finds McClintock with just 16% of the vote among registered voters, and 18% among probable voters. That puts him in third place behind Bustamante and Schwarzenegger.

Next, I'm going to read a list of some of the 135 candidates running to replace Gray Davis as governor if he is removed from office. After I read these names, please tell me which of these candidates you would be most likely to vote for if the election were held today, if you would vote for someone else, or if you would not vote for anyone for governor. [ROTATED: Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican; Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat; Columnist AriannaHuffington, an independent; State Senator Tom McClintock, a Republican; and Financial Advisor, Peter Miguel Camejo of the Green Party] (If someone else, who do you plan to vote for?)

	Schwarz- enegger	Busta- mante	McClin- tock	Camejo	Huff- ington	OTHER (vol.)	None/ No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	34	28	16	4	2	2	14
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	40	25	18	5	2	1	9

The third-place showing by McClintock underestimates his overall strength. Both Republican candidates enjoy a favorable rating among more than 6 in 10 probable voters, while fewer than 4 in 10 probable voters give Bustamante a favorable rating. Of the three leading contenders, McClintock has the lowest negatives. Only 20% of probable voters have an unfavorable view of McClintock, compared with a 30% unfavorable rating for Schwarzenegger and 54% unfavorable for Bustamante.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [NAME], or have you never heard of this person?

Arnold Schwarzenegger

 

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Never heard of	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	59	31	1	9
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	63	30	*	7
* Less than 0.5%

Tom McClintock

 

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Never heard of	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	58	18	7	17
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	62	20	4	14

Cruz Bustamante

 

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Never heard of	No opinion
	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	44	46	3	7
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	37	54	3	6

Furthermore, when McClintock is pitted against just Bustamante, among probable voters the Republican state senator beats the Democratic candidate handily -- by 19 percentage points.

If the choice were between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat and Tom McClintock, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for [ROTATED -- Cruz Bustamante, (or) Tom McClintock]?

 

	Bustamante	McClintock	NEITHER (vol.)	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	42	49	6	*	3
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	37	56	5	*	2
(vol.) Volunteered response
* Less than 0.5%

On the other hand, the poll shows Schwarzenegger would also beat Bustamante in a two-man race among probable voters -- but by a slightly larger 22-point margin (58% to 36%).

If the choice were between Cruz Bustamante, the Democrat and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for [ROTATED: Cruz Bustamante, (or) Arnold Schwarzenegger]?

 

	Bustamante	Schwarzen- egger	NEITHER (vol.)	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Registered Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	39	52	6	*	3
Probable Voters
2003 Sep 25-27	36	58	4	*	2
(vol.) Volunteered response
* Less than 0.5%

If Schwarzenegger were to drop out of the race (and all other candidates remained), McClintock would pick up 64% of the actor's vote, while Bustamante would get just 6% of that vote. The net result would be a 48% to 31% lead by McClintock over Bustamante.

On the other hand, if McClintock were to drop out of the race, Schwarzenegger would get a majority of the probable vote. Just over 62% of the state senator's support would go to Schwarzenegger, while only 8% would go to Bustamante -- leaving the actor with a 56% to 29% lead over Bustamante.

Thus, while either Republican could probably win if the other dropped out, GOP leaders are pressuring McClintock -- the slightly weaker candidate according to this poll -- to quit the race in order to ensure a Republican victory. The fact that he would be such a strong candidate without Schwarzenegger may help to explain why McClintock has been so reluctant to accede to the GOP leaders' wishes.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected sample of 1,007 Californians, aged 18 years and older, conducted Sept. 25-27, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For results based on the sample of 787 Californians who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Probable voters include a subsample of 581 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the October 7, 2003 California recall election, based on their level of interest and intention to vote. This definition assumes a turnout of 51% in the recall election. For results based on the sample of probable voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

This poll was conducted in both English and Spanish -- 73 out of 1,007 interviews were conducted in Spanish.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.