Bush's Favorable Rating Running Higher Than Job Approval

There are a number of ways in which the public can be asked to rate a president. Two measures that The Gallup Poll uses most frequently ask Americans: 1) to rate the job being done by the president ("Do you approve or disapprove of the way [current president] is handling his job as president?"), and 2) to indicate their personal opinion of the president ("Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [current president]). The distinction between these two measures is often blurred, but they are designed to assess two distinct dimensions of a presidency.

The job approval rating is intended to be just what the name suggests, an up or down evaluation of how the president is performing his duties. The favorability rating is designed to pick up a more personal dimension that, in principle, is distinct from the job assessment. It's clearly possible to feel a personal sense of warmth or empathy for a president while simultaneously perceiving that he is inept in his job. And, conversely, one can appreciate the skill with which a president performs his duties, and at the same time feel little personal affection for him. Despite these theoretical differences, the two measures tend to track one another. Americans are more likely to have a favorable opinion of a president when they give him a high job evaluation, and vice versa.

As explained in a previous Tuesday Briefing analysis (see "Historical Favorability Ratings of Presidents" in Related Items), Gallup has used the current wording of the favorability measure since 1992. Prior to that year, Gallup used a complex "scalometer" measure that asked the respondent to rate the president on a 10-point scale ranging from +5 on the positive end to -5 on the negative end. (Gallup from time to time has updated a scalometer rating on each president since 1992 in order to make historical comparisons.)

President Bush

Some observers hypothesize that President George W. Bush is perceived more positively on a personal level than he is in terms of his job competency. Gallup now has almost three years' worth of data on Bush, including 15 surveys in which both the job approval and favorability rating have been included. The data show that Bush indeed has received slightly higher favorability ratings than job approval ratings over his presidency so far.

President George W. Bush Job Approval and Favorable Ratings
		Job Performance: Approve	Job Performance: Disapprove	Personal Rating: Favorable	Personal Rating: Unfav.	Net Diff: % Fav. Opinion minus % Approve Job
Bush	01 Feb 1-4	57	25	64	33	7
Bush	01 Feb 19-21	62	21	67	27	5
Bush	01 Mar 5-7	63	22	69	28	6
Bush	01 Mar 9-11	58	29	63	32	5
Bush	01 Apr 20-22	62	29	65	32	3
Bush	01 Jun 8-10	55	35	62	36	7
Bush	01 Aug 3-5	55	35	60	35	5
Bush	01 Nov 26-27	87	8	87	11	0
Bush	02 Jan 11-14	83	13	83	15	0
Bush	02 Apr 29-May 1	77	20	79	19	2
Bush	02 May 20-22	76	17	80	18	4
Bush	02 Jul 26-28	69	26	71	26	2
Bush	02 Dec 16-17	63	33	68	30	5
Bush	03 Jun 9-10	62	34	66	33	4
Bush	03 Oct 6-8	55	42	60	39	5
	AVERAGE	65.6	25.9	69.6	27.6	4

Across these 15 surveys, Bush has received -- on average -- favorable ratings that are four percentage points higher than his average job approval rating (69.6% favorability rating minus 65.6% job approval). Bush's job approval ratings rose sharply after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, as did his favorability ratings. At two points in November 2001 and January 2002, the two ratings were identical.

Bush's job approval rating in a recent, early October Gallup Poll was 55%, while the percentage of Americans with favorable opinions of the president was 60%, a difference roughly at his term average of four percentage points.

Comparison to Bill Clinton

The overall pattern of the difference between the two ratings for George W. Bush is similar to the pattern in the first term of Bush's immediate predecessor, Bill Clinton. However, both Clinton's average job approval and his average favorability rating were considerably lower than was the case during Bush's first term.

Clinton averaged a 49.8% job approval in his first term (compared to Bush's 65.6%, to date) and a 56.5% favorable rating (compared to Bush's 69.6% to date). The difference between these two ratings for Clinton is 6.7 -- slightly, but not much, higher than the four-point difference between the same two statistics calculated for Bush's first term to date:

President Bill Clinton First Term Job Approval and Favorable Ratings
		Job Performance: Approve	Job Performance: Disapprove	Personal Rating: Favorable	Personal Rating: Unfavorable	Net Difference: Favorable Opinion minus Job Approval
Clinton	93 Jan 29-31	54	30	65	27	11
Clinton	93 Apr 22-24	55	37	63	32	8
Clinton	93 Jun 5-6	37	49	48	44	11
Clinton	93 Jul 19-21	41	49	51	45	10
Clinton	93 Aug 8-10	44	48	53	42	9
Clinton	93 Sep 24-26	56	36	63	32	7
Clinton	93 Nov 2-4	48	45	54	42	6
Clinton	93 Nov 15-16	50	43	56	38	6
Clinton	93 Nov 19-21	48	43	55	41	7
Clinton	94 Jan 6-8	54	38	62	35	8
Clinton	94 Jan 15-17	54	38	60	37	6
Clinton	94 Mar 7-8	50	42	59	38	9
Clinton	94 Mar 25-27	52	41	56	40	4
Clinton	94 Apr 22-24	48	44	56	41	8
Clinton	94 Jul 15-17	42	49	49	48	7
Clinton	94 Sep 6-7	39	54	47	50	8
Clinton	94 Nov 28-29	43	49	50	47	7
Clinton	94 Dec 28-30	40	52	48	49	8
Clinton	95 Jan 16-18	47	45	56	42	9
Clinton	95 Mar 17-19	46	45	51	45	5
Clinton	95 Apr 17-19	46	45	56	42	10
Clinton	95 Jul 7-9	48	42	57	40	9
Clinton	95 Aug 4-7	46	42	51	44	5
Clinton	95 Sep 22-24	48	44	55	41	7
Clinton	95 Nov 6-8	52	41	59	38	7
Clinton	96 Jan 12-15	46	47	54	44	8
Clinton	96 Feb 23-25	53	40	60	37	7
Clinton	96 Mar 15-17	52	39	58	38	6
Clinton	96 May 9-12	55	39	60	39	5
Clinton	96 May 28-29	53	38	59	38	6
Clinton	96 Jun 18-19	58	37	60	36	2
Clinton	96 Jul 18-21	57	35	62	35	5
Clinton	96 Aug 5-7	57	36	60*	37	3
Clinton	96 Aug 16-18	52	39	57*	41	5
Clinton	96 Aug 30-Sep 1	60	33	61*	35	1
Clinton	96 Oct 2-3	57	36	60	37	3
Clinton	96 Oct 26-29	54	36	58	38	4
	AVERAGE	49.8	41.8	56.5	39.9	6.7
*Registered voters

Indeed, the finding that a president's favorability rating is higher his job approval rating appears to be a common one. The Tuesday Briefing analysis of the differences between average favorable rating using the scalometer and average job approval rating for the eight presidents between Dwight Eisenhower and George H.W. Bush shows that the favorability rating was higher than the job approval rating for each of these presidents (Gallup, however, did not rate Richard Nixon using the favorability scalometer during the Watergate-focused years near the end of the Nixon presidency.)

But there are exceptions. The final years of the second Clinton term present us with a fascinating deviation from this pattern. In the first year of the second Clinton term -- from January until December 1997, Clinton's favorability rating was higher than his job approval rating by an average of 3.2 points.

But then, beginning in January 1998, things changed. Clinton's job approval rating suddenly jumped above his favorability rating and remained that way (with one exception) until the end of his administration. The pattern was dramatic, and in many surveys in 1998, early 1999, and in 2000, the differences were into the double digits.

President Bill Clinton Second Term Job Approval and Favorable Ratings
		Job Performance: Approve	Job Performance: Disapprove	Personal Rating: Favorable	Personal Rating: Unfavorable	Net Difference: Favorable Opinion minus Job Approval
Clinton	97 Jan 3-5	58	35	60	36	2
Clinton	97 Jan 10-13	62	31	65	31	3
Clinton	97 Jan 30-Feb 2	60	31	64	32	4
Clinton	97 Feb 24-26	57	33	61	34	4
Clinton	97 Mar 24-26	59	35	63	34	4
Clinton	97 Apr 18-20	54	37	60	38	6
Clinton	97 Jun 26-29	55	36	59	37	4
Clinton	97 Jul 25-27	58	34	62	35	4
Clinton	97 Sep 6-7	61	28	63	32	2
Clinton	97 Sep 25-28	58	33	61	35	3
Clinton	97 Oct 3-5	55	36	56	40	1
Clinton	97 Oct 27-29	59	32	62	35	3
Clinton	97 Dec 18-21	56	36	58	37	2
Clinton	98 Jan 23-24	58	36	57	40	-1
Clinton	98 Jan 24-25	60	35	58	39	-2
Clinton	98 Jan 25-26	59	37	53	43	-6
Clinton	98 Jan 28*	67	28	63	32	-4
Clinton	98 Jan 30-Feb 1	69	28	65	34	-4
Clinton	98 Feb 13-15	66	30	58	39	-8
Clinton	98 Feb 20-22	66	29	64	34	-2
Clinton	98 Mar 16	67	29	60	37	-7
Clinton	98 Mar 20-22	66	28	60	35	-6
Clinton	98 Jun 5-7	60	34	61	36	1
Clinton	98 Aug 7-8	64	32	58	40	-6
Clinton	98 Aug 10-12	65	30	60	38	-5
Clinton	98 Aug 18	66	29	55	42	-11
Clinton	98 Aug 20	61	34	53	43	-8
Clinton	98 Aug 21-23	62	35	55	43	-7
Clinton	98 Sep 14-15	63	35	51	47	-12
Clinton	98 Oct 9-12	65	32	54	43	-11
Clinton	98 Nov 20-22	66	30	57	40	-9
Clinton	98 Dec 4-6	66	30	56	40	-10
Clinton	99 Jan 8-10	67	30	58	40	-9
Clinton	99 Feb 4-8	65	33	55	44	-10
Clinton	99 Feb 19-21	66	30	55	44	-11
Clinton	99 Mar 5-7	68	28	54	43	-14
Clinton	99 Apr 13-14	60	36	51	47	-9
Clinton	99 Apr 30-May 2	60	36	53	45	-7
Clinton	99 Jun 25-27	57	41	48	50	-9
Clinton	99 Jul 22-25	64	31	57	41	-7
Clinton	99 Aug 3-4	60	35	52	46	-8
Clinton	99 Sep 23-26	59	38	54	45	-5
Clinton	99 Dec 9-12	56	41	45	53	-11
Clinton	00 Apr 28-30	59	39	47	51	-12
Clinton	00 Aug 4-5	57	40	42	54	-15
Clinton	00 Aug 18-19	62	32	48	48	-14

For the last two years of Clinton's term, the difference between his favorabilty rating and his job approval rating was a -7.8, a clear reversal from both his and Bush's first terms.

The reason behind this shift, of course, was the Monica Lewinsky/impeachment crisis. While Americans' evaluations of the job Clinton was doing as president (at a time when the economy was roaring along at a record pace) remained high and rose even higher as the impeachment situation progressed, their evaluations of Clinton as a person (reflecting the moral implications of the Lewinsky affair and his honesty) dropped lower.

In fact, other measures of public opinion conducted during this time period revealed just how sensitive the public was to Clinton's multifaceted persona. A special Gallup Poll experiment in August 1998 varied the wording of the favorability question only slightly, and found significant differences between a question that asked the public to give a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Clinton "the person," compared to a question which asked for a more general favorable or unfavorable opinion.

Bottom Line

It's clear that Americans appear more willing to give a president positive ratings when asked to evaluate him as a person than when asked to evaluate the job he is doing as president. This pattern, so far, holds true for President Bush. There are exceptions, however, the most prominent being the last years of the Clinton administration, at which point the president's job approval ratings were significantly higher than the ratings he received as a person.