The Commerce Department reports retail sales on Wednesday and expectations are that they will be flat on an ex-autos basis -- down when autos are included. Gallup's self-reported spending dataexcludes many items included in the government's retail sales measure, but June's spending was down supporting the idea that retail sales were flat or declined. Early July spending was up for the week of the 4th, but fell again last week.
Initial jobless claims will be reported as usual on Thursday and the numbers to be reported are anybody's guess given the holiday week distortions. Gallup's Job Creation Index improved slightly last week while Gallup's underemployment measure is at 18.2% -- essentially where it was in June (18.3%)-- and suggests that the job market continues to stabilize.
The week winds up with the Reuter's/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment preliminary report. Given that the Index reportedly increased last month -- when Gallup and the Conference Board showed a decline -- Friday's consumer sentiment report should show the Index plunging. Particularly given the continued decline in Gallup's measurement of Economic Confidence.
While this week's economic data isn't likely to be very upbeat -- even after last week's surge in the equity markets -- Gallup's standard of living measure for June provides a basis for some much needed optimism. More upper-income Americans are optimistic about their standard of living now than at any time since March 2008. And, other middle- and lower-income Americans are similarly optimistic, although they have been so for the past couple of months. This means Americans' personal balance sheets are healing, and as time passes, households are building the firm financial foundation we need for future economic expansion.
