January's Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index survey has me more frightened than ever about America's future.
I already knew that our GDP was stalling, if not falling. The Department of Commerce reported recently that GDP declined in the fourth quarter of last year, at an annualized rate of 0.1%. Meanwhile a minimum GDP of 2.5% is required just to tread water economically, in my view, though I think we really need GDP growth of about 4.5% to get the economy humming again.
And I already knew that unemployment was stuck at right around 8%; when you add in those who are "underemployed," according to Gallup data, it jumps to 17%. These figures tell the story of what was a prosperous and stable democracy that's now going nowhere.
But the Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index survey reveals the biggest nightmare metric of all: 30% of small-business owners are worried they may not be in business in 12 months. I am also worried because new business startups have fallen below 400,000 per year, and the country needs a bare minimum of 1 million new startups annually, in my estimate, to keep the economy running. We cannot, on top of this, have existing companies going out of business.
These findings are so alarming because the total number of U.S. employees within small businesses is significantly larger than in big business. The fact is, new business startups mean everything to America, because without them, our GDP cannot grow and unemployment will continue to rise. The miracle of economic life in the United States begins with one business starting up -- that moment of conception, if you will.
Now, the most important question America must ask is: Does that miracle happen as the result of government policies and regulations, or does it grow out of a spirit of entrepreneurship and free enterprise? The answer is crucial. Get it wrong and the country's GDP shrinks -- and we lose jobs and global standing. Get it right, and America roars back and becomes a powerhouse again.
The right answer is that the miracle springs from a spirit of free enterprise, a will. It springs from risk takers' insatiable demand for independence and success. America must understand, encourage, and renew this spirit, or it's game over for the country.
I wish I could be more optimistic right now, but this story explains why I'm not: A group of college seniors stopped by my office recently in Washington, D.C., and I asked them how many want to start their own business. Just two seniors raised their hands. I asked how many want to work for the government; nine raised their hands. When I asked why the government, every single person said "security." This is a perfect example of the absence of free-enterprise spirit. When the desire in young people for the security of a government job overwhelms the demand to take an entrepreneurial risk, America sinks.
Sorry about the depressing observations. But there's a fix that's simple and doable -- and it doesn't cost much.
We should give every American kid in grades K-12 an opportunity to experience the miracle of free enterprise. Great nonprofits are doing this already. Lemonade Day is teaching kids how to start businesses, and Operation HOPE's Business in a Box program mentors kids in business and finance. These organizations are inspiring future miracles, because they're creating moments in which young people feel the thrill of enterprise. Other nonprofits, schools, and public-private partnerships could do the same.
If and when we overwhelm the more than 50 million kids in grades K-12 with the magical experience of entrepreneurship, we'll create a bright economic future for America and leave behind our current debilitating problems. These young risk-takers will grow up to start small businesses, many of which will shoot up and boom, and the economy will thrive again. America will rebound because our young people will bring the spirit back.
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