Public: Giuliani Has Best Chance of Defeating Clinton

PRINCETON, NJ -- The vast majority of Americans say former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has an excellent or good chance both of being elected president and of defeating Hillary Clinton in the November 2008 general election if Clinton is the Democratic presidential candidate. None of the other leading Republican candidates comes close to Giuliani on either measure. Americans give Giuliani, Arizona Sen. John McCain, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney slightly better chances of “being elected president” than of “defeating Hillary Clinton.”

Giuliani also has an advantage in perceived electability over the rest of the Republican field in a series of head-to-head electability comparisons against McCain, Romney, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. Giuliani has at least a 40-point electability advantage in each of these comparisons.

Democrats, independents, and Republicans all rate Giuliani as the GOP’s best bet in 2008.

Electability of Republican Candidates

The Oct. 25-28, 2007, Gallup Panel survey asked Americans two questions about the chances of six Republican candidates winning the presidency in November 2008. Half of the respondents were asked about the candidates' chances "of being elected president in November 2008." The other half were asked about the candidates' chances of "defeating Hillary Clinton for president in November 2008 if she is the Democratic candidate."

Giuliani is the only candidate that a majority of Americans say has an excellent or good chance of “being elected president” in 2008. McCain (47%) and Romney (45%) fall just below the majority level on this measure. Only 31% of Americans view Thompson, who has consistently placed second in national Republican nomination preference polls, as having an excellent or good chance of being elected. The public does not give dark-horse candidates Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul good odds.

Please say whether you think each of the following Republican presidential candidates would have an excellent chance, a good chance, only a slim chance, or no chance at all of being elected president in November 2008. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

Americans give the leading Republicans -- Giuliani, McCain, and Romney -- slightly worse chances of “defeating Hillary Clinton for president” than of being elected president. Giuliani continues to be perceived as strongest, with 71% saying he has an excellent or good chance of beating Clinton. No other Republican exceeds 40%, with McCain (40%), Romney (37%), and Thompson (34%) closely matched for second. Just 16% of Americans think Huckabee stands a good chance of defeating Clinton, and only 12% think the same of Paul.

Please say whether you think each of the following Republican presidential candidates would have an excellent chance, a good chance, only a slim chance, or no chance at all of defeating Hillary Clinton for president in November 2008 if she is the Democratic candidate. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

The vast majority of Republicans -- 86% -- say Giuliani has an excellent or good chance of defeating Clinton in next year's general election. More than half of Republicans also say Romney (55%) and Thompson (52%) stand a good chance of defeating Clinton, and 48% say the same about McCain. Giuliani is the only candidate that a majority of independents and Democrats say has a good chance of defeating Clinton in November 2008.

In general, Republicans give the GOP presidential candidates essentially the same odds of being elected president as they do of defeating Clinton. Independents and Democrats typically give the four leading Republicans better odds of being elected president than of defeating Clinton.

Change Over Time

Americans' views that Romney has an excellent or good chance of winning the presidency have increased substantially since February, from 27% to 45%, while views that McCain can win the election have decreased by an even larger margin, from 70% to 47%. In both polls, more than 7 in 10 Americans have said Giuliani has a good chance of winning the election.

The results show a similar pattern among Republicans.

Independents and Democrats also have downgraded McCain’s chances compared with the February results, and have upgraded Romney’s chances.

The slide in Republican support for McCain to win the party’s nomination over the course of the year may explain why fewer Americans say he is electable. And while Romney's support in these trial-heat polls has not risen dramatically, more Americans may say he is electable because of his successful fund raising efforts this year.

The poll included a series of questions that paired each of the four leading Republican candidates against one another and asked respondents to choose which of the two would have the best chance of being elected president in November 2008.

Giuliani maintains at least a 40-point lead over the three other leading Republican candidates in these head-to-head comparisons -- 77% to 20% against Thompson, 75% to 21% against Romney, and 69% to 29% against McCain. McCain fares the next best on this series of measures, outpolling both Thompson (61% to 36%) and Romney (57% to 39%). Romney edges out Thompson in their one-on-one matchup, 50% to 43%.

In February, Gallup asked the paired Giuliani versus McCain and Giuliani versus Romney electability comparison questions, with Giuliani winning both matchups. Now, however, fewer Americans say McCain has a better chance than Giuliani of being elected president than did so in February, and slightly more Americans say Romney has a better chance than Giuliani of being elected president.

Among Republicans, Giuliani easily wins the comparison matchups over Romney (75% to 22%), Thompson (74% to 25%), and McCain (70% to 28%). But in the matchups of the other candidates, Republicans are essentially divided as to which candidate has the better chance of winning the presidency next November.

There have been some slight variations in the Republican matchups between Giuliani and McCain, and Giuliani and Romney since February, but most of those differences fall within the polls' margins of error.

Survey Methods

Results for this panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 25-28, 2007. Respondents were drawn from Gallup's household panel, which was originally recruited through random selection methods. The final sample is weighted so it is representative of U.S. adults nationwide. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the 468 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 532 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 310 Republicans, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±7 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 348 independents, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 342 Democrats, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

9. (Asked of a half sample) Please say whether you think each of the following Republican presidential candidates would have an excellent chance, a good chance, only a slim chance, or no chance at all of being elected president in November 2008. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

BASED ON 468 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

10. (Asked of a half sample) Please say whether you think each of the following Republican presidential candidates would have an excellent chance, a good chance, only a slim chance, or no chance at all of defeating Hillary Clinton for president in November 2008 if she is the Democratic candidate. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

9A. Rudy Giuliani (chances of being elected president)

10A. Rudy Giuliani (chances of defeating Hillary Clinton for president)

9B. Mike Huckabee (chances of being elected president)

10B. Mike Huckabee (chances of defeating Hillary Clinton for president)

9C. John McCain (chances of being elected president)

10C. John McCain (chances of defeating Hillary Clinton for president)

9D. Mitt Romney (chances of being elected president)            

10D. Mitt Romney (chances of defeating Hillary Clinton for president)            

9E. Fred Thompson (chances of being elected president)

10E. Fred Thompson (chances of defeating Hillary Clinton for president)

9F. Ron Paul (chances of being elected president)

10F. Ron Paul (chances of defeating Hillary Clinton for president)

12. Who do you think would have the better chance of being elected president in November 2008 -- [ROTATED: Rudy Giuliani, (or) Mitt Romney]?

13. Who do you think would have the better chance of being elected president in November 2008 -- [ROTATED: Rudy Giuliani, (or) Fred Thompson]?

14. Who do you think would have the better chance of being elected president in November 2008 -- [ROTATED: Mitt Romney, (or) Fred Thompson]?

15. Who do you think would have the better chance of being elected president in November 2008 -- [ROTATED: John McCain, (or) Fred Thompson]?

16. Who do you think would have the better chance of being elected president in November 2008 -- [ROTATED: John McCain, (or) Mitt Romney]?