Does the State of the Union Affect Presidential Popularity?

The U.S. Constitution requires that the president update the Congress periodically on the state of the union. This has evolved into an annual televised address and is one of the most anticipated and widely covered news events each year. Observers have long viewed the State of the Union address as an important opportunity for the president to speak directly to the public, and to help increase popular support for his legislative agenda. At times, the State of the Union has taken on added significance, such as George H. W. Bush's attempts to address Americans' concerns about the economy in 1992, and Bill Clinton's address just days after allegations of an affair with a White House intern became public.

A special Gallup analysis of polling data going back to the Carter administration shows that, amid all the pageantry and fanfare associated with the occasion, State of the Union addresses generally do little to help boost a president's ratings.

The following table shows the pre-State of the Union approval ratings for each president in the Gallup Poll prior to the address, and their approval ratings in the first poll conducted after the address (please note that this does not include addresses given by presidents in their first year in office, though many typically give speeches, it is usually not under the auspices of a State of the Union).

		Pre-speech approval rating	Dates of poll	Date of address	Post-speech approval rating	Dates of poll	Change
2003	Bush	60%	Jan 23-25	Jan. 28	61%	Jan 31-Feb 2	1
2002	Bush	84	Jan 25-27	Jan. 29	82	Feb 4-6	-2
2000	Clinton	64	Jan 25-26	Jan. 27	63	Feb 4-6	-1
1999	Clinton	69	Jan 15-17	Jan. 19	69	Jan 22-24	0
1998	Clinton	59	Jan 25-26	Jan. 27	69	Jan 30-Feb 1	10
1997	Clinton	60	Jan 30-Feb 2	Feb. 4	57	Feb 24-26	-3
1996	Clinton	46	Jan 12-15	Jan. 25	52	Jan 26-29	6
1995	Clinton	47	Jan 16-18	Jan. 24	49	Feb 3-5	2
1994	Clinton	54	Jan 15-17	Jan. 25	58	Jan 28-30	4
1992	Bush	46	Jan 16-19	Jan. 28	47	Feb 6-9	+1
1991	Bush	83	Jan 23-26	Jan. 29	82	Jan 30-Feb 2	-1
1990	Bush	80	Jan 4-7	Jan. 31	73	Feb 8-11	-7
1988	Reagan	49	Jan 22-25	Jan. 25	50	Mar 4-6	1
1987	Reagan	48	Jan 16-19	Jan. 27	43	Mar 6-9	-5
1986	Reagan	64	Jan 10-13	Feb. 4	63	Mar 4-10	-1
1985	Reagan	64	Jan 25-28	Feb. 6	60	Feb 15-18	-4
1984	Reagan	52	Jan 13-16	Jan. 25	55	Jan 27-30	3
1983	Reagan	37	Jan 21-24	Jan. 25	35	Jan 28-31	-2
1982	Reagan	47	Jan 22-25	Jan. 26	47	Feb 5-8	0
1980	Carter	56	Jan 5-8	Jan. 21	58	Jan 25-28	2
1979	Carter	43	Jan 19-22	Jan. 25	42	Feb 2-5	-1
1978	Carter	55	Jan 6-9	Jan. 19	52	Jan 20-23	-3

In the 22 cases analyzed here, there are 11 instances in which a president's post-State of the Union approval rating was lower than what he had before the speech, nine when it was higher, and two in which there was no change. However, roughly a quarter of these cases (6 out of 22) show differences large enough to suggest real changes in a president's job approval rating.

Of the most recent presidents, Clinton seemed most adept at using a State of the Union to help boost his public standing. He showed significant improvement in his approval rating in three of his seven speeches, including a dramatic increase of 10 percentage points in 1998. That speech was delivered just days after allegations about an affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky became publicized. Clinton made no mention of that controversy in the 1998 speech, but rather touted the first balanced federal budget in nearly three decades and proposed a variety of new and popular programs in the areas of education, welfare, and Social Security. The 69% approval rating Clinton received following that speech was the second highest of his term, only bettered by a 73% rating immediately after the House of Representatives voted to impeach him (as a result of the Lewinsky scandal) in December 1998.

Clinton also used his 1996 speech, in which he announced an end to the "era of big government," as a springboard to a successful re-election bid. Following that speech, his job approval rating edged past the 50% mark, where it stayed for the remainder of his presidency. Clinton also showed a slight positive improvement in his approval ratings following his 1994 State of the Union.

The elder Bush was far less successful than Clinton in getting a boost from his State of the Union speeches. However, that probably resulted from the fact that Bush's pre-State of the Union approval ratings in 1990 (80%) and 1991 (83%) were already very high to begin with, both being among the highest Gallup has ever recorded for a president. The 1990 address was given shortly after the United States invaded Panama and successfully captured Manuel Noriega and in the midst of several Eastern European countries defecting from the Soviet bloc. The 1991 address was given during early stages of the Persian Gulf War with Iraq.

Bush's 1992 address, though, was seen as an important opportunity for him to address Americans' concerns about a poor economy, and thus to improve his sagging popularity as he began his re-election bid. Prior to the speech, Bush's job approval rating was 46%, and presidents typically need an approval rating above 50% to ensure re-election. However, his State of the Union did not do much to change the public's view of Bush, as his post-State of the Union approval rating was 47%. Bush's approval rating subsequently continued the downward trend that had begun after the Persian Gulf War -- falling below 40% by June 1992 -- and staying in the 30s until after Clinton defeated him.

Like the elder Bush, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan also saw little improvement in their approval ratings following their re-election year speeches. Carter's 1980 rating of 56% was already somewhat high following recent rallies in support because of the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Reagan's 52% approval rating showed a slight increase to 55% following his 1984 State of the Union address. Surprisingly, his approval ratings in 1984 only reached into the high 50s despite his winning 98% of the electoral votes in the election, the most since the awarding of electoral votes was tied to the popular vote in 1828.

Reagan's five-point drop in 1987 probably does not reflect much upon his State of the Union that year, as the first poll following his address came more than a month after his speech. However, a four-point drop in 1985 may suggest a slight loss of public support following that State of the Union.

George W. Bush's approval ratings have barely budged following his two prior State of the Union addresses. In both instances, his approval ratings were rather high to begin with, but even some dramatic announcements such as terming Iraq, Iran, and North Korea as an "axis of evil" have not caused much change in Bush's job ratings.

Bottom Line

If George W. Bush's approval rating -- currently at 59% -- increases following next week's State of the Union address, it will be a rare accomplishment. Typically, presidents' approval ratings are little changed following a State of the Union address, and in only one instance (1998) did a president's approval rating show a dramatic increase.