GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey finds a hypothetical presidential contest between President George W. Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry a dead heat. Bush receives 49% support among likely voters and Kerry 48%. Last week, Kerry led Bush by 7 points, 53% to 46%, but a month ago -- before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary -- Bush led Kerry by 12 points, 55% to 43%.
| Bush vs. Kerry Among Likely Voters |
 |
Bush also does slightly better this week than last against the other three major Democratic candidates.
- While Bush trailed North Carolina Sen. John Edwards by one point last week, the president leads by four points now.
- Bush leads retired Gen. Wesley Clark by five points now, compared with three points last week.
- Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean trails Bush by 10 points in the current poll, compared with 7 points last week.
Changes since last week in the relative electoral strength of Bush vs. each of the candidates, Edwards, Clark, and Dean, are all within the poll's margin of error. Still, Bush's improvement against each of the candidates is consistent with the significant improvement in Bush's standing against Kerry.
The poll results show that the political landscape has changed dramatically since the beginning of January, when Bush enjoyed double-digit leads over the Democratic candidates. Still, it is not as positive for Democrats as it was last week, when Kerry led Bush by seven points. The change from last week could be related to a decline in the positive publicity Kerry received in the wake of his dramatic victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Whether the political landscape continues to move back in Bush's favor or stabilizes at a more competitive level remains to be seen.
Bush Approval Up to 52%
Bush's job approval is now at 52%, compared with 49% a week ago, and 59% a month ago.
| George W. Bush's Job Approval Rating |
 |
The changes in Bush's approval since mid-January -- from 53% in a Jan. 12-15 poll to 49% in a Jan. 29-Feb. 1 poll, and now 52% -- are all within each poll's margin of error. Thus, it is unclear whether Bush's approval has undergone some slight fluctuation over the past three weeks, or has actually remained stable. What is clear, however, is that Bush's approval is down from the early January polls, when about 6 in 10 Americans gave the president a positive rating.
President Bush made a highly publicized appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday, but the majority of interviews in this poll were conducted on Friday and Saturday nights, so it is unlikely that the president's interview itself had a major impact on these poll results.
Kerry Remains the Dominant Democratic Front-Runner
With a string of primary and caucus victories to his credit, Kerry remains the dominant front-runner of registered Democrats for the nomination. Kerry receives 52% support, compared with 14% for Dean, 13% for Edwards, and 10% for Clark. These numbers have changed little from last week, despite Edwards' victory in South Carolina and a Clark victory in Oklahoma.
| Democratic Challenger Trial
Heat Among Registered Democrats |
 |
While most political analysts have written off Dean's candidacy, since he has not thus far won any contest, he still receives as much or more support among the party faithful as do Edwards and Clark.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,008 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 6-8, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 765 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption.
For results based on the sample of 410 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
2. If retired General Wesley Clark were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Wesley Clark, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Clark, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?
|
|
|
NEITHER |
OTHER |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
|||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
46 |
51 |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
47 |
50 |
2 |
-- |
1 |
|
2004 Jan 9-11 |
42 |
56 |
1 |
* |
1 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
44 |
52 |
1 |
* |
3 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
46 |
49 |
2 |
-- |
3 |
|
2004 Jan 9-11 |
41 |
55 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
|
2003 Dec 15-16 |
40 |
56 |
2 |
* |
2 |
|
2003 Nov 10-12 |
47 |
50 |
1 |
-- |
2 |
|
2003 Sep 19-21 |
49 |
46 |
2 |
* |
3 |
|
National Adults |
|||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
44 |
51 |
2 |
* |
3 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
47 |
48 |
2 |
-- |
3 |
|
2004 Jan 9-11 |
41 |
55 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
|
2003 Dec 15-16 |
40 |
55 |
3 |
* |
2 |
|
2003 Nov 10-12 |
45 |
52 |
1 |
-- |
2 |
|
2003 Sep 19-21 |
48 |
46 |
3 |
* |
3 |
| (vol.) Volunteered response | |||||
| * Less than 0.5% | |||||
3. If former Vermont Governor Howard Dean were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: Howard Dean, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
3A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Dean, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?
|
|
|
NEITHER |
OTHER |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Likely Voters |
|||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
43 |
53 |
2 |
* |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
45 |
52 |
3 |
-- |
* |
|
2004 Jan 9-11 |
41 |
56 |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 2-5 |
37 |
59 |
2 |
* |
2 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
41 |
54 |
2 |
-- |
3 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
46 |
49 |
3 |
* |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 9-11 |
39 |
57 |
2 |
* |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 2-5 |
37 |
57 |
3 |
* |
3 |
|
2003 Dec 15-16 |
37 |
60 |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
2003 Dec 11-14 |
44 |
52 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
|
2003 Nov 10-12 |
44 |
53 |
1 |
-- |
2 |
|
2003 Sep 19-21 |
46 |
49 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
National Adults |
|||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
42 |
53 |
2 |
-- |
3 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
46 |
49 |
3 |
* |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 9-11 |
40 |
56 |
2 |
* |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 2-5 |
37 |
57 |
3 |
* |
3 |
|
2003 Dec 15-16 |
37 |
59 |
2 |
* |
2 |
|
2003 Dec 11-14 |
44 |
52 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
|
2003 Nov 10-12 |
43 |
53 |
1 |
-- |
3 |
|
2003 Sep 19-21 |
45 |
49 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
(vol). Volunteered response |
|||||
| * Less than 0.5% | |||||
4. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
4A.As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?
|
|
|
NEITHER (vol.) |
OTHER |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Likely Voters | |||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
48 |
49 |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
53 |
46 |
* |
-- |
1 |
|
2004 Jan 9-11 |
43 |
55 |
1 |
* |
1 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
49 |
48 |
1 |
-- |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
51 |
46 |
1 |
-- |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 9-11 |
40 |
57 |
2 |
-- |
1 |
|
2003 Nov 10-12 |
46 |
52 |
1 |
-- |
1 |
|
2003 Sep 19-21 |
48 |
47 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
National Adults |
|||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
48 |
48 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
52 |
44 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 9-11 |
40 |
57 |
2 |
-- |
1 |
|
2003 Nov 10-12 |
44 |
53 |
1 |
-- |
2 |
|
2003 Sep 19-21 |
47 |
48 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
| (vol). Volunteered response | |||||
| * Less than 0.5% | |||||
5. If North Carolina Senator John Edwards were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Edwards, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?
5A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Edwards, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?
|
|
|
NEITHER (vol.) |
OTHER |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Likely Voters | |||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
46 |
50 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
49 |
48 |
2 |
-- |
1 |
|
Registered Voters |
|||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
45 |
51 |
1 |
-- |
3 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
48 |
48 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
|
National Adults |
|||||
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
45 |
50 |
2 |
-- |
3 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
49 |
47 |
2 |
-- |
2 |
| (vol). Volunteered response | |||||
7. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED:Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, Retired General, Wesley Clark]
BASED ON 410 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
None/ other/ no opin. |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2004 Feb 6-8 |
52 |
14 |
13 |
10 |
4 |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
6 |
|
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 |
49 |
14 |
13 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
5 |
|
2004 Jan 9-11 |
9 |
26 |
7 |
20 |
3 |
1 |
9 |
7 |
4 |
-- |
14 |
|
2004 Jan 2-5 |
11 |
24 |
6 |
20 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
9 |
3 |
-- |
15 |
|
2003 Dec 15-16 |
7 |
27 |
6 |
12 |
6 |
2 |
12 |
7 |
3 |
-- |
18 |
|
2003 Dec 11-14 |
10 |
31 |
4 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
13 |
8 |
3 |
-- |
15 |
|
2003 Dec 5-7 |
7 |
25 |
7 |
17 |
3 |
2 |
10 |
14 |
5 |
-- |
10 |
|
2003 Nov 14-16 |
9 |
17 |
6 |
17 |
5 |
3 |
13 |
13 |
4 |
-- |
13 |
|
2003 Nov 10-12 |
10 |
17 |
7 |
14 |
3 |
3 |
15 |
12 |
4 |
-- |
15 |
|
2003 Oct 24-26 |
10 |
16 |
6 |
15 |
6 |
1 |
12 |
12 |
4 |
-- |
18 |
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
11 |
13 |
6 |
18 |
6 |
3 |
13 |
10 |
5 |
-- |
15 |
|
2003 Oct 6-8 ^ |
13 |
16 |
2 |
21 |
6 |
2 |
13 |
8 |
4 |
-- |
15 |
|
2003 Sep 19-21 |
11 |
13 |
4 |
22 |
4 |
2 |
10 |
11 |
3 |
4 |
16 |
|
2003 Sep 8-10 |
12 |
14 |
5 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
13 |
16 |
4 |
5 |
17 |
|
2003 Aug 25-26 |
10 |
12 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
23 |
13 |
5 |
4 |
21 |
|
2003 Aug 4-6 |
12 |
15 |
5 |
-- |
4 |
2 |
18 |
15 |
5 |
5 |
19 |
|
2003 Jul 25-27 |
15 |
11 |
6 |
-- |
5 |
2 |
21 |
16 |
6 |
4 |
14 |
|
2003 Jun 12-18 |
13 |
7 |
6 |
-- |
6 |
1 |
21 |
17 |
5 |
7 |
17 |
|
2003 May 31-Jun 1 |
17 |
5 |
6 |
-- |
7 |
2 |
20 |
14 |
4 |
4 |
21 |
|
2003 Apr 22-23 |
18 |
6 |
8 |
-- |
3 |
3 |
22 |
16 |
4 |
5 |
15 |
|
NOTE: Joe Lieberman dropped out of the race on Feb. 3, Dick Gephardt dropped out of the race on Jan. 20, and Carol Moseley Braun dropped out of the race on Jan. 15. ^ NOTE: Bob Graham dropped out of race on Oct. 6, his name was removed from question for Oct. 7-8 interviewing and in subsequent polls; "Graham" responses from Oct. 6 included in "other" category. |
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