PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results show Hillary Clinton with a diminished margin over John McCain for the November presidential election, leading him by only two percentage points (47% to 45%). This is on par with Barack Obama's one percentage point margin over McCain (46% to 45%).
Gallup tracking reports from May 23 through May 28 showed Clinton consistently running three to five percentage points stronger than McCain in trial heats for the fall election. Over the same period, Obama fared no better than a tie with McCain, and at one point trailed the presumptive Republican nominee by three points. This difference between the two Democrats' performances may have bolstered the Clinton campaign's argument that she is the more electable of the two Democrats this fall; however that advantage appears to have dissipated.
As a result, Clinton and Obama are now both statistically tied with McCain in the preferences of registered voters for this fall's general election. This is typical of Obama's standing in May, but worse for Clinton who has generally led McCain by at least three points for most of May.
Meanwhile, the Democratic nomination fight between Clinton and Obama goes on. In Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 27-29, Obama has a 10-point advantage over Clinton in national Democratic preferences, 52% vs. 42%. This is identical to Thursday's tracking report, and represents the continuation of a two and a half week stretch during which Obama has nearly continuously held a significant lead. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from May 27-29, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,240 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
The general election results are based on combined data from May 24-25 and 27-29, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,368 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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