PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential election trial heat finds Barack Obama maintaining a slight advantage over John McCain, 46% to 44%.
The latest three-day rolling average is for the period of July 14-16, or Monday through Wednesday of this week. From a big picture perspective, this latest report represents little change. McCain is at the top of the range of support levels in which he has been situated for a period of weeks, while Obama is at the bottom of his range, thus resulting in a slightly smaller gap than in recent days. There are no signs in an analysis of night by night results of any abrupt shift in the generally stable pattern which has characterized the race recently.
Both candidates remain active on the campaign trail. Obama will next week begin what is shaping up to be a highly publicized international trip, which could, at least in theory, have the potential to change the structure of the race. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport.
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from July 14-16, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,652 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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