GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Overwhelmingly, Americans view international terrorism and the possible spread of weapons of mass destruction as the two most critical threats facing this country, according to a recent Gallup survey. Further down the list of threats to the country is the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, followed by Islamic fundamentalism, possibly high levels of immigration, the conflict between North and South Korea, and economic competition from low-wage countries. Conflicts in Asia, as well as the military power of China and Russia, are viewed with less concern.
The poll, conducted Feb. 9-12, asked respondents to evaluate a list of possible threats to the vital interests of the United States over the next 10 years. Two-thirds or more of the respondents identified each threat as either "critical" or "important but not critical." Relatively few respondents said the threats were not important at all.
The results show 82% of Americans citing international terrorism as a critical threat, compared with 75% who make the same judgment about the spread of weapons of mass destruction to unfriendly powers.
I am going to read you a list of possible threats to the vital interest of the United States in the next 10 years. For each one, please tell me if you see this as a critical threat, an important but not critical threat, or not an important threat at all.
2004 Feb 9-12 |
Critical |
Important, |
Total |
% |
% |
% |
|
International terrorism |
82 |
16 |
98 |
The spread of weapons of mass destruction to unfriendly powers |
75 |
20 |
95 |
The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians |
58 |
32 |
90 |
Islamic fundamentalism |
51 |
31 |
82 |
Large numbers of immigrants entering the United States |
50 |
35 |
85 |
The conflict between North Korea and South Korea |
48 |
38 |
86 |
Economic competition from low-wage countries |
46 |
37 |
83 |
The military power of China |
39 |
46 |
85 |
The conflict between India and Pakistan |
32 |
52 |
84 |
The conflict between China and Taiwan |
23 |
51 |
74 |
The military power of Russia |
18 |
50 |
68 |
The conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians comes in third on the list, with 58% citing it as a critical threat, compared with the next four threats, cited by about half of Americans: Islamic fundamentalism, large numbers of immigrants entering the United States, the conflict on the Korean peninsula, and economic competition from low-wage countries.
China's military power appears to be more threatening to Americans than Russia's military power, though neither threat is seen as critical by most Americans. The conflicts in Asia -- between India and Pakistan, and between China and Taiwan -- also appear less than critical to most Americans.
Partisan Rankings
The rankings of the threats tend to be consistent among most major subgroups of Americans, with only a few instances in which there are differences of 10 percentage points or more between groups.
Some of the largest differences in threat assessments are partisan.
Critical Threats Compared by Party Affiliation (differences of 10 points or more between Republicans and Democrats) |
|||
Repub- |
Indepen- |
Demo- |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
International terrorism |
92 |
79 |
77 |
The spread of weapons of mass destruction to unfriendly powers |
83 |
74 |
69 |
Islamic fundamentalism |
61 |
51 |
42 |
The conflict between North Korea and South Korea |
58 |
45 |
42 |
Economic competition from low-wage countries |
40 |
48 |
50 |
Republicans are much more likely to cite international terrorism, the spread of weapons of mass destruction, Islamic fundamentalism, and the conflict on the Korean peninsula as "critical" threats than are Democrats -- with independents falling into the middle. Democrats are more likely to cite economic competition from low-wage countries than are Republicans.
These partisan differences reflect the larger conflict between Republican and Democratic leaders on how best to deal with the problems, all of which are part of the issues that are likely to dominate the presidential election campaign in the coming months.
Differences by Income
Lower and higher income Americans tend to agree on most of the threats, but on four items there are major differences among the income groups.
Lower income Americans give a much higher ranking to the threat of large numbers of immigrants entering the country, and also to economic competition from low-wage countries, than do higher income Americans. Higher income Americans give much higher rankings to Islamic fundamentalism and the Korean conflict than do lower income Americans.
Critical Threats Compared by Household Income
|
|||||
<$20K |
$20K-<$30K |
$30K-<$50K |
$50K-<$75K |
$75K+ |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Islamic fundamentalism |
29 |
49 |
55 |
53 |
60 |
Large numbers of immigrants entering the United States |
54 |
63 |
56 |
45 |
39 |
The conflict between North Korea and South Korea |
38 |
47 |
46 |
51 |
57 |
Economic competition from low-wage countries |
50 |
54 |
49 |
41 |
37 |
A similar pattern is found by education, with less educated Americans less concerned about Islamic fundamentalism and the Korean conflict, but more concerned about large numbers of immigrants entering the country and the economic competition that could affect jobs.
Attentive Americans
The poll shows that "attentive" Americans -- those who pay relatively more attention to foreign affairs -- differ from the less attentive on only a few items.
Assessment of Critical Threats |
|||
How closely follow foreign affairs: |
Very |
Somewhat |
Not closely |
% |
% |
% |
|
Islamic fundamentalism |
62 |
48 |
43 |
The conflict between North Korea and South Korea |
54 |
51 |
33 |
The conflict between India and Pakistan |
40 |
29 |
28 |
In each of the cases shown in the accompanying table, people who say they follow foreign affairs "very" closely are much more likely than the least attentive Americans to rate each threat as "critical."
Overall, the differences between the most and the least attentive Americans can be found on the following threats:
- The least attentive Americans rate the threat of immigration as more critical than Islamic fundamentalism, while the most attentive Americans reverse the order.
- The least attentive Americans also rate economic competition from low-wage countries as more critical than the Korean conflict, while the most attentive Americans are slightly more likely to rate the Korean conflict as more critical than economic competition.
Despite these instances of differences, the major pattern in the survey results is one of consistency among most major subgroups of Americans on most rankings of threats.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,002 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 9-12, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
I am going to read you a list of possible threats to the vital interest of the United States in the next 10 years. For each one, please tell me if you see this as a critical threat, an important but not critical threat, or not an important threat at all. [RANDOM ORDER]
A. The military power of China
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
39% |
46 |
11 |
4 |
B. The military power of Russia
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
18% |
50 |
29 |
3 |
C. International terrorism
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
82% |
16 |
2 |
* |
* Less than 0.5% |
D. The spread of weapons of mass destruction to unfriendly powers
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
75% |
20 |
4 |
1 |
E. Economic competition from low-wage countries
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
46% |
37 |
15 |
2 |
F. The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
58% |
32 |
8 |
2 |
G. The conflict between North Korea and South Korea
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
48% |
38 |
11 |
3 |
H. The conflict between China and Taiwan
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
23% |
51 |
17 |
9 |
I. The conflict between India and Pakistan
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
32% |
52 |
11 |
5 |
J. Islamic fundamentalism
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
51% |
31 |
12 |
6 |
K. Large numbers of immigrants entering the United States
Critical |
Important |
Not important |
No opinion |
|
2004 Feb 9-12 |
50% |
35 |
14 |
1 |