PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has a 47% to 42% advantage over John McCain among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking three-day rolling average for Aug. 8-10.
The pattern of Americans' support for the two presumptive presidential nominees has shown little substantive change so far in August. There have been eight Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports based on interviewing conducted entirely in the month of August, and in each of these Obama has received either 46% or 47% of the support of registered voters. McCain has received between 42% and 44% support. These estimates of support for the two candidates show no significant change, a finding that is not surprising given the attention being given to the Olympics by voters, the fact that Obama is on vacation, and the general lack of major news generating events from the presidential campaign front. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
The dramatic news of the sudden war which erupted in the Republic of Georgia has certainly been prominently displayed in newspapers, on television, and on Internet news sites, but the probability that these events will significantly change the U.S. presidential race is most likely low. -- Frank Newport
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from Aug. 8-10, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,648 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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