Majority of Americans Continue to Believe Iraq "Worth It"

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A majority of Americans continue to support U.S. military involvement in Iraq, and a slight majority now say they approve of the way President George W. Bush is handling the situation there. Views of the Iraq situation are partisan, with almost 9 in 10 Republicans supporting the war, while two-thirds of Democrats oppose it. Other segments of the American population who give more than average support to the U.S. involvement in Iraq include conservatives, men, and whites. Half of Americans believe that the Iraq situation is an extension of the general war against terrorism, while half do not.

Is U.S. Involvement in Iraq Worth It?

Fifty-six percent of Americans say that the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, little changed from the 55% who felt that way in early March. Both March readings on this key measure of support for the U.S. military presence in Iraq are higher than the 49% recorded in late January/early February. The previous low point of support for the action in Iraq -- 50% -- occurred in September of last year.

Worth Going to War in Iraq?

The trend on the Gallup "was it worth it" measure tells a great deal about the American public's perceptions of the controversial U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Support for the idea of such action was at only 53% in January 2003, but quickly jumped as high as 76% "worth it" in April as the intervention continued and appeared successful.

By early fall 2003, support levels had fallen to the aforementioned 50%, shortly after Bush addressed the nation about difficulties in Iraq and announced he would seek an additional $87 billion from Congress for the effort. Support began to climb slightly in the fall, and jumped to 65% in mid-December, after the widely publicized capture of Saddam Hussein.

Two other recent polls also show 55% of Americans supporting the military action in Iraq:

• A Newsweek poll conducted March 25-26 found that 55% agreed that the "United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq last year."

• A Pew Research Center survey from March 17-21 found 55% saying that the United States had made the right decision in using military force against Iraq.

A Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted March 23-24 gave respondents two explicit reasons for intervention in Iraq, disarmament and the removal of Hussein: "Do you support or oppose the United States having taken military action to disarm Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein?" The results on this question showed 61% support, down slightly from the responses to the same question in January and last fall.

There is little question that the current levels of support for involvement in Iraq are highly political:

Worth Going to War in Iraq Compared by Party Affiliation

Almost 9 in 10 Republicans say the U.S. effort in Iraq was worth it, not a surprising level of support given the high degree of identification of the war with the president and his administration. The consensus among Democrats in their opposition to the war is not as great as the consensus among Republicans in support. Sixty-seven percent of Democrats say the war was not worth it, while 29% say it was worth it. Independents essentially break even in their beliefs about whether the war was worth it (47%) or not (50%).

There are other differences within subgroups of the American population in support for the war in Iraq:

All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?

 

	Worth going to war	Not worth going to war
Conservatives	74%	25%
Men	67	32
Whites	63	35
30-49	61	37
50-64	58	40
SAMPLE AVERAGE	56	41
18-29	55	45
Moderates	53	44
Women	47	50
65+	47	47
Nonwhites	32	65
Liberals	30	68

It is important to note that support for the war in Iraq is actually slightly higher in the so-called battleground states (where the margin of victory for either Bush or Al Gore in 2000 was five percentage points or less) than in the "red states" (which Bush won by more than five percentage points).

Worth Going to War in Iraq Compared by How States Voted in 2000 Election

In the "blue states," where Gore won comfortably in 2000 and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry is expected to win in 2004, 47% say the war was worth it, while 51% disagree. In the "red states," where Bush is expected to win again, people say the war was worth it by 57% to 40%. But in the battleground or competitive states, the comparable figures are 62% who say the war was worth it and 36% who say it was not.

Is Iraq Tied to War on Terrorism?

One of the major efforts of the Bush administration has been to tie the war in Iraq to the war against terrorism, particularly after the failure thus far to find the weapons of mass destruction that were so much a part of the initial rationale for the war.

Today, Americans are about evenly divided in their acceptance of this rationale -- 50% say the war in Iraq is part of the war on terrorism, while 48% say it is not. These figures represent a decline in the number of Americans who link Iraq with the war on terrorism. In an Aug. 25-26 poll last year, 57% said the two were linked, while 41% disagreed.

Is War in Iraq Part of War on Terrorism?

Bush Job Approval on Iraq

Bush's job approval rating for handling the situation in Iraq has crept back up to 51% in the March 26-28 Gallup Poll. That's higher than the 46% he received in a late January/early February poll, although it should be noted that almost all measures of the president's performance in that poll were at quite low points. Still, approval of Iraq policy had been as low as 45% and 47% last fall (before the capture of Hussein), suggesting that there has been a recovery in his standing on the Iraq situation in the eyes of the American public.

Bush Handling of The Situation in Iraq

Bush vs. Kerry on Iraq

Bush now has significant positioning strength against Kerry when the public is asked about their respective abilities to deal with either the situation in Iraq or with the more general responsibility of sending American troops into war. This represents a change from as recently as a few weeks ago.

The recent Pew Research Center poll asked the public whether Bush or Kerry would do the best job of making wise decisions about what to do in Iraq, and found 49% saying Bush, compared with just 37% who said Kerry. This represents a widening gap compared with an earlier March study by Pew that found Bush ahead of Kerry on this measure by only two percentage points.

Similarly, the March 26-28 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll asked Americans which of the two major candidates they would trust more to make the decision to send U.S. troops into a war:

Whom Do You Trust More to Send U.S. Troops to War?

There has been a significant turnaround in these perceptions. In late January/early February, Americans chose Kerry over Bush by five points (50% to 45%). Now they choose Bush over Kerry by 11 points (52% to 41%).

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,001 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First,

30. All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?

 

		Worth going to war	Not worth going to war	No opinion
		%	%	%
2004 Mar 26-28		56	41	3
2004 Mar 5-7		55	43	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1		49	49	2
2004 Jan 9-11		59	38	3
2003 Dec 15-16 ^ †		65	33	2
2003 Dec 14 †‡?		62	33	5
2003 Dec 5-7 †		59	39	2
2003 Nov 14-16 †		56	42	2
2003 Nov 3-5 †		54	44	2
2003 Oct 24-26 †		54	44	2
2003 Oct 6-8 †		55	44	1
2003 Sep 19-21 †		50	48	2
2003 Sep 8-10 †		58	40	2
2003 Aug 25-26 †		63	35	2
2003 Jul 25-27 †		63	34	3
2003 Jul 18-20 †		63	35	2
2003 Jun 27-29 †		56	42	2
2003 Apr 14-16 †‡		73	23	4
2003 Apr 9 †‡?		76	19	5
2003 Apr 7-8 †‡		67	30	3
2003 Mar 24-25 †‡		68	29	3
2003 Jan 3-5 †‡		53	42	5
^	Asked of a half sample.
†	WORDING: All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?
‡	WORDING: All in all, do you think the current situation in Iraq is worth going to war over, or not?
?	Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

Trends for Comparison:

 

		Worth going to war	Not worth going to war	No opinion
		%	%	%
1998 Feb 20-22		57	36	7
Persian Gulf War
1991 Jan 30-Feb 2 ^		71	24	5
1991 Jan 11-13 †		46	44	10
1991 Jan 3-6 †		47	44	9
1990 Dec 13-16 †		49	44	7
1990 Dec 6-9 †		47	45	8
1990 Nov 29-Dec 2 †		51	41	8
1990 Nov 15-18 †		46	45	9
1990 Sep 27-30 †		49	41	10
1990 Aug 30-Sep 2 †		45	44	11
1990 Aug 23-26 †		49	41	10
^	All in all, do you think the situation in the Middle East involving Iraq and Kuwait is worth going to war over, or not?
†	All in all, is the current situation in the Mideast is worth going to war over, or not?

31. Do you consider the war in Iraq to be part of the war on terrorism, which began on September 11, 2001, or do you consider it to be an entirely separate military action?

 

	Part of war on terrorism	Separate military action	No opinion
2004 Mar 26-28	50%	48	2
2003 Aug 25-26	57%	41	2

Trends for Comparison:

If the United States goes to war with Iraq, would you consider that to be part of the war on terrorism, which began on September 11^th, or would you consider it to be an entirely separate military action?

 

	Part of war on terrorism	Separate military action	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	50%	48	2
2002 Sep 20-22	55%	42	3

If a situation arose that required the president to make a decision about sending U.S. troops to war, who would you trust more to make that decision – [ROTATED: John Kerry, (or) George W. Bush]?

 

		Kerry	Bush	BOTH (vol.)	NEITHER (vol.)	No opinion
2004 Mar 26-28		41%	52	1	3	3
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1 ^		50%	45	1	1	3
^	Asked of a half sample.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

B. The situation in Iraq

 

	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
	%	%	%
2004 Mar 26-28	51	47	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	46	53	1
2004 Jan 2-5	61	36	3
2003 Dec 5-7	50	47	3
2003 Nov 3-5	45	54	1
2003 Oct 6-8	47	50	3
2003 Sep 8-10	51	47	2
2003 Aug 25-26	57	41	2
2003 Jul 25-27	60	38	2
2003 Jul 18-20	57	39	4
2003 Jul 7-9	58	39	3
2003 Jun 12-15	63	34	3
2003 Apr 14-16	76	21	3
2003 Mar 29-30	71	27	2
2003 Mar 24-25	71	26	3
2003 Mar 14-15	56	41	3
2003 Jan 31-Feb 2	54	42	4
2003 Jan 3-5	55	40	5
2002 Dec 9-10	55	39	6
2002 Oct 21-22	52	40	8