War Support Unchanged

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Poll shows support for the war with Iraq has stabilized at a lower level, little different from that found two weeks ago at the height of publicity surrounding the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal. This is in spite of the fact that Americans' assessment of how the situation in Iraq is going for the United States has become slightly more positive. With the United States set to turn over governing authority in Iraq on June 30, Americans remain skeptical that peace and security will be established there, and that a democratic government will exist there in the near future. Nevertheless, more than 7 in 10 Americans say Iraq is better off now than before the war began.

The poll was conducted May 21-23, prior to President Bush's address on Iraq Monday night. Forty-five percent of Americans say the war with Iraq was worth it, while 52% disagree. This is essentially unchanged from a May 7-9 poll, taken at the height of the Abu Ghraib scandal, which showed 44% of Americans saying the war was worth it. Prior to this month, with just one exception (a 49% reading in a Jan. 29-Feb. 1 poll), war support has been at or above 50% since the war began in March 2003.

Worth Going to War in Iraq?

Views on the war are sharply divided according to one's partisan affiliation -- 82% of Republicans say it was worth it; 78% of Democrats say it was not. Among political independents, 36% say the war was worth it and 61% say it was not.

Even though support for the Iraq war remains steady and is about as low as it has ever been, Americans are becoming less negative in their assessment of how the war is going for the United States. The poll finds 42% of Americans saying things are going "very" or "moderately well" for the United States in Iraq, while 57% say "very" or "moderately badly." In a poll conducted earlier this month, just 37% of Americans said things were going well for the United States, following a 35% reading in April. Not since early March have Americans been as optimistic about U.S. progress in Iraq, although clearly the public is more negative than positive at this time.

How Would You Say Things Are Going for the United States in Iraq?

Again, partisanship strongly colors one's views on how things are going in Iraq -- 74% of Republicans say things are going well, while only 22% of Democrats share that view (77% of Democrats say things are going badly). Both groups now give more positive views than in early May, at which time 64% of Republicans and 16% of Democrats said things were going well.

More than 7 in 10 Americans say Iraq is either "much" better off (27%) or "somewhat" better off (45%) than it was before the U.S. and British invasion of the country. About one in four say Iraq is worse off now.

However, Americans are decidedly pessimistic about Iraq's prospects for security and democracy. Sixty-nine percent say it is unlikely that peace and internal security will be established in Iraq in the next year. Fifty-five percent believe it is unlikely that a democratic form of government will be established in the next year. On Monday, President Bush reaffirmed his intention for the United States to hand over governing authority to an interim Iraqi government on June 30, with plans for national elections there by January.

How Likely to Occur in Iraq in the Next Year?

May 21-23, 2004

Americans are not much more optimistic about conditions in Iraq in five years -- 62% do not believe Iraq will be secure in the next five years, and 52% do not believe that a democratic form of government will be established there within that time frame.

How Likely to Occur in Iraq in the Next Five Years?

May 21-23, 2004

By a 51% to 42% margin, Americans say the war with Iraq has made the world less safe -- rather than safer -- from terrorism. This was one of the Bush administration's main rationales for the Iraq war.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 21-23, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Now, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First,

9. All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?

 

		Worth going to war	Not worth going to war	No opinion
		%	%	%
2004 May 21-23		45	52	3
2004 May 7-9 ^		44	54	2
2004 May 2-4		50	47	3
2004 Apr 16-18 ^		52	46	2
2004 Apr 5-8		50	47	3
2004 Mar 26-28		56	41	3
2004 Mar 5-7		55	43	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1		49	49	2
2004 Jan 9-11		59	38	3
2003 Dec 15-16 ^ †		65	33	2
2003 Dec 14 †‡?		62	33	5
2003 Dec 5-7 †		59	39	2
2003 Nov 14-16 †		56	42	2
2003 Nov 3-5 †		54	44	2
2003 Oct 24-26 †		54	44	2
2003 Oct 6-8 †		55	44	1
2003 Sep 19-21 †		50	48	2
2003 Sep 8-10 †		58	40	2
2003 Aug 25-26 †		63	35	2
2003 Jul 25-27 †		63	34	3
2003 Jul 18-20 †		63	35	2
2003 Jun 27-29 †		56	42	2
2003 Apr 14-16 †‡		73	23	4
2003 Apr 9 †‡?		76	19	5
2003 Apr 7-8 †‡		67	30	3
2003 Mar 24-25 †‡		68	29	3
2003 Jan 3-5 †‡		53	42	5
^	Asked of a half sample.
†	WORDING: All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?
‡	WORDING: All in all, do you think the current situation in Iraq is worth going to war over, or not?
?	Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

10. In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq -- [ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]?

 

		Very well	Moder- ately well	Moder- ately badly	Very badly	No opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
2004 May 21-23		7	35	26	31	1
2004 May 2-4		4	33	32	30	1
2004 Apr 5-8		5	30	31	33	1
2004 Mar 5-7		9	46	28	15	2
2003 Nov 3-5 ^		4	34	34	27	1
2003 Oct 6-8 ^†		6	36	34	24	*
2003 Sep 8-10 ^		6	41	31	21	1
2003 Aug 25-26 ^		6	44	30	19	1
2003 Jul 25-27 ^		10	46	28	15	1
2003 Jul 18-20 ^		6	48	30	15	1
2003 Jun 27-29 ^		5	51	29	13	2
2003 May 30-Jun 1 ^		11	59	22	7	1
2003 May 5-7 ^†		30	56	10	3	1
2003 Apr 22-23 ^†		21	64	12	2	1
^	WORDING: How would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq now that the major fighting has ended -- [ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]?
†	Asked of a half sample.
* Less than 0.5%

Q.11-12 SPLIT SAMPLED

11. Please tell me whether you think each of the following is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely to happen in Iraq in the next YEAR. [ITEMS ROTATED]

BASED ON -- 506 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

A. Peace and internal security will be established

 

	Very likely	Some- what likely	Somewhat unlikely	Very unlikely	No opin- ion
2004 May 21-23	7%	22	25	44	2

B. A democratic form of government will be established

 

	Very likely	Some- what likely	Somewhat unlikely	Very unlikely	No opin- ion
2004 May 21-23	12%	30	23	32	3

12. Please tell me whether you think each of the following is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely to happen in Iraq in the next FIVE YEARS. [ITEMS ROTATED]

BASED ON -- 496 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

A. Peace and internal security will be established

 

	Very likely	Some- what likely	Somewhat unlikely	Very unlikely	No opin- ion
2004 May 21-23	8%	28	25	37	2

B. A democratic form of government will be established

 

	Very likely	Some- what likely	Somewhat unlikely	Very unlikely	No opin- ion
2004 May 21-23	13%	33	22	30	2

14. In your opinion, is Iraq -- [ROTATED: much better off, somewhat better off, somewhat worse off, (or) much worse off] -- than before the U.S. and British invasion?

 

	Much better off	Some- what better off	Some- what worse off	Much worse off	SAME (vol.)	No opinion
2004 May 21-23	27%	45	16	8	1	3
(vol.) Volunteered response

15. Do you think the war with Iraq has made the world safer or less safe from terrorism?

 

	Safer	Less safe	NO CHANGE (vol.)	No opinion
2004 May 21-23	42%	51	5	2
(vol.) Volunteered response