Anti-Incumbent Mood Against Congress Persists in 2011

PRINCETON, NJ -- Twenty-eight percent of U.S. registered voters say most members of Congress deserve re-election, tying the low point in the trend set last year, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll.

In early May, Gallup found 24% of Americans approving of the job Congress is doing overall, which reflected a rally in support after the death of Osama bin Laden. Congress' approval rating had been below 20% in March and April. Nevertheless, voters' views of Congress in 2011 -- in terms of both approval and support for most members' re-election -- are no better than they were last year, despite the great turnover in the 2010 elections that led to Republicans' taking control of the House of Representatives.

Since 1992, Gallup has typically found more voters saying most members of Congress do not deserve re-election than saying they do. Generally, when higher percentages of voters express these anti-incumbent sentiments, as in 1992, 1994, 2006, and 2010, there is much change in Congress' membership at the next election.

Gallup usually asks the re-election question in election years, rather than in off-years, as is the case in the current poll. However, when Gallup has evaluated voters' willingness to support incumbents in the year before an election -- 2001, 2003, and 2005 -- the data have generally reflected what Gallup found in the succeeding election year.

Democratic voters are more likely than independent or Republican voters to say most members of Congress deserve re-election, even though Republicans now control the House of Representatives. Still, a majority of all three party groups believe most members should not be elected to another term.

The shift in party control has had an effect, however, as Republicans are more likely, and Democrats less likely, to say most members of Congress deserve re-election than either group was last year.

Most Voters Endorse Their Own Member's Re-Election

Voters are generally more inclined to say their own member deserves re-election than they are to say this about most members. The historical averages are 41% for most members of Congress and 59% for one's own member.

In the current poll, voters remain more charitable toward their own member of Congress, with 57% saying he or she deserves re-election. That is below the historical norm, but a significant improvement over what Gallup measured last year, when an average of 50% said their member deserved re-election. The all-time-low measurement was 48% in 1992.

Republican voters are more likely than Democrats to say their own representative should get another term, with independents much less likely to say this than either major party. In fact, independents are about evenly divided in their views, while Democrats and Republicans show better than 2-to-1 margins in favor of re-electing their local representative.

Implications

The anti-incumbent mood that led to sweeping changes in Congress after the 2010 elections persists, and the accompanying change in House leadership has not fundamentally altered the way Americans view Congress. Thus, incumbents remain vulnerable heading into the 2012 election cycle, though perhaps not quite as vulnerable as in 2010, given that voters are now more inclined to say their own member deserves re-election.

All incumbent members of the House will be running in newly drawn districts in 2012, further adding to the uncertainty about their future. But significant turnover in Congress may be the "new normal" pattern, given that it has occurred in each of the last three congressional elections.