Americans Support Bush Tax Cut, But See Little Personal Benefit

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A majority of Americans -- 56% -- favor the cuts in federal income taxes proposed by President Bush, up very slightly -- four points -- from one month ago. But there are signs in a new poll that the public is not overwhelmed by the thought of the money such tax cuts might save them. Additionally, a majority of the public says it is at least somewhat likely that tax cuts could result in an increased deficit or hurt Social Security, and three-quarters say that the tax cuts would mostly benefit the rich. There is no consensus about the impact of a tax cut plan on the nation's economy. The public is split on whether it will make a recession less likely, more likely or not have much of an effect on the probability of a recession either way.

A Majority of Americans Favor Bush Tax Plan
In the abstract,Americans usually favor tax cuts (for more than 25 years, 70% or more of respondents have told Gallup they favor a cut in federal income taxes), and Bush's current plan is no exception. In the most recent February 9-11 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, 56% of Americans favor the "federal income tax cuts President Bush has proposed," while 34% are opposed. However, Gallup has consistently found that when people are forced to choose between tax cuts and spending on popular government programs -- such as Social Security and Medicare -- they are more apt to favor spending over tax cuts. The same pattern appears in the most recent poll -- only 28% of Americans believe the government ought to cut taxes "if it means putting off some important things that need to be done." Thirty-three percent disagree, saying the government ought to cut taxes anyway, and 39% have no opinion.

Although over half of Americans favor Bush's tax proposal, majorities also agree with some of its critics' claims. Fifty-three percent think it is likely the plan will cause a budget deficit, 57% think it is likely to take money away from Social Security and 75% think it will mostly benefit the rich. These perceptions are clearly partisan, as would be expected; Democrats are more likely than Republicans to think Bush's plan will have dismal results.

The Democratic leaders in Congress have been trying to persuade the public that a tax plan that disproportionately benefits the rich is unacceptable. This may not be the most effective strategy, according to Gallup's data. Those who think the plan will increase the deficit or diminish the Social Security fund are more likely to oppose Bush's plan than favor it. However, those who think the plan will mostly benefit the rich are as likely to support Bush's plan as oppose it.

President Bush has argued that a tax cut plan is necessary to help prevent an economic recession. Thirty-five percent of Americans agree, but another 22% say tax cuts will actually make a recession more likely, while another 36% say that tax cuts won't have much of an effect on the probability of a recession either way. These perceptions mark a slight change from January, when 34% said that tax cuts would make a recession more likely and 29% said they would make a recession less likely.

Support for Bush Plan Depends on Personal Benefit
In the recent poll, Gallup asked respondents to estimate how much money they would save under the Bush tax plan, and the median response was around $400.00. Asked to characterize the impact of the tax savings on their lives, most Americans think the amount they would save would not make much of a difference to them and their families. Fifty-three percent of the public think the savings would amount to only a little bit of a difference or no difference at all, 26% say the savings would make some difference and just 18% think the savings would make a big difference in their lives.

The survey finds that perceived monetary savings is related to whether or not people support the tax cuts -- the more people think they will save, they more likely they are to support Bush's plan. This is true for both Republicans and Democrats, although most Democrats oppose the plan, regardless of the amount they think they will save.

Favor Bush plan?

Perceived Level of Savings

	None	Less than $100.00	$100.00-$499.00	$500.00-$999.00	$1000.00-$1499.00	$1500.00 +
2001 Feb 9-11	%	%	%	%	%	%
Favor	37	33	51	63	71	74
Oppose	51	61	41	26	28	20
DK/Refused	12	06	08	11	01	06
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Along the same lines, people with higher incomes are more likely to support the plan than are those with lower incomes. Support for Bush's tax plan among respondents of various household income levels is as follows:

• 66% among those who make more than $75,000 per year
• 64% among those making $50,000-74,999 per year
• 61% among those in the $ 30,000-50,0000 per year bracket
• 46% of those earning between $20,000-$30,000
• 43% of those making less than $20,000
  

It is important to note that the average income for Republicans in the United States is higher than it is for Democrats, perhaps accounting for some of this relationship between income and support for the Bush plan.

Tax Cuts Remain Low Priority for Americans

As has been the case in polling conducted throughout the past year, tax cuts remain a relatively low priority for Americans. Asked in the most recent Gallup poll to rate the importance of six different goals, cutting federal income taxes came in last -- behind education, keeping the country prosperous, the energy problem, balancing the budget, and providing military security:

 

	Top priority	High priority	Top/High priority
	%	%	%
Improving education	49	44	93
Keeping America prosperous	43	50	93
Dealing with the energy problems facing the nation	38	48	86
Keeping the federal budget balanced	36	50	86
Providing military security for the country	36	46	82
Cutting federal income taxes	28	39	67

Bare Majority Think Bush's Tax Plan Will Pass

According to a poll conducted shortly before Bush assumed office, most Americans did not think that he would be able to successfully pass the tax cuts he championed during the campaign. Bush's loss of the popular vote, coupled with the extended post-election controversy in Florida and the narrowly divided Congress, created a less than perfect atmosphere for the new president to execute his agenda. According to a Gallup poll conducted January 5-7, only 38% of Americans thought that Bush would be able to pass his tax package. Now that Bush is getting settled into the Oval Office and Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has supported the idea of large tax cuts, more of the public has been persuaded that Bush will have some legislative success in the tax arena -- 51% now think the president will be able to pass his tax legislation, 41% do not think he will be able to and 8% have no opinion.

Survey Methods

The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,016 adults, 18 years and older, conducted February 9-11, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

How important is it that the Bush administration does each of the following? Is it a top priority, high priority, low priority, or not a priority at all? [RANDOM ORDER]

TOP/HIGH PRIORITY SUMMARY TABLE

 

	Top priority	High priority	Top/High priority
	%	%	%
Improving education	49	44	93
Keeping America prosperous	43	50	93
Dealing with the energy problems facing the nation	38	48	86
Keeping the federal budget balanced	36	50	86
Providing military security for the country	36	46	82
Cutting federal income taxes	28	39	67

Next I have a few questions on taxes,

Based on what you have read or heard, do you favor or oppose the federal income tax cuts President Bush has proposed?

 

		Favor	Oppose	No opinion
2001 Feb 9-11		56%	34	10
2001 Jan 5-7 ^		52%	33	15
^	WORDING: Based on what you have read or heard, do you favor or oppose the federal income tax cuts George W. Bush has proposed?

Do you think Bush will or will not be able to pass the federal income tax cuts that he has proposed?

 

	Will	Will not	No opinion
2001 Feb 9-11	51%	41	8
2001 Jan 5-7	38%	50	12

Just your best guess, if there is a cut in federal income taxes, how much, in dollars, would you expect your own taxes to be cut per year?

 

	2001 Feb 9-11
$1,500 or more	13%
$1,000 - $1,499	10
$500 - $999	9
$100 - $499	18
Less than $100	6
None/Zero	11
No opinion	32
Mean	$790.61
Median	$400

Looking ahead, how much of a difference would this tax cut make for you and your family -- [ROTATED: a big difference, some difference, only a little difference, (or) no difference at all]?

 

	A big difference	Some difference	Only a little difference	No difference at all	No opinion
2001 Feb 9-11	18%	26	33	20	3

Consider the following statement. The government ought to cut taxes even if it means putting off some important things that need to be done. Now, would you say you have an opinion on this or not?

(If have opinion)Do you agree that the government should do this, or do you think the government should not do this?

Q.13/Q.14 COMBINED RESPONSES

 

	Agree		Do not agree		Depends (vol.)		No opinion
2001 Feb 9-11	28%		33		--		39
1999 Aug 16-18 ^	21%		59		5		15
1979 Jan 9-22	62%		12		9		17
1999 WORDING: Next we'd like to know whether you agree or disagree with a statement about taxes. If you do not have an opinion about the statement, feel free to say so. "The government ought to cut taxes even if it means putting off some important things that need to be done."

If President Bush is able to enact his tax cut plan, do you think that Bush's tax cut would make a recession [ROTATED: more likely (or) less likely], or would it have no effect?

 

		More likely	Less likely	No effect	No opinion
2001 Feb 9-11		22%	35	36	7
2001 Jan 5-7 ^		34%	29	30	7
^	WORDING: If George W. Bush is able to enact his tax cut plan, do you think that Bush's tax cut would make a recession [ROTATED: more likely (or) less likely], or would it have no effect?

If President Bush is able to enact his tax cut plan, how likely is it that each of the following would happen – very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely? How about – [RANDOM ORDER]?

1. It would cause a federal budget deficit

2.  

   	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
   2001 Feb 9-11	20%	33	29	13	5

   
   
   
3. It would take money away that is needed to protect Social Security

4.  

   	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
   2001 Feb 9-11	30%	27	22	17	4

   
   
   
5. It would mostly benefit the rich

 

	Very likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
2001 Feb 9-11	46%	29	14	8	3