Sharon Favored by Israeli Voters

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- As Israeli voters go to the polls, the latest Gallup Israel poll indicates incumbent Prime Minister Ehud Barak may well lose his "vote of confidence" from the Israeli people. The poll, conducted Sunday night for the Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv, shows the Likud Party's Ariel Sharon with a 19-point lead over Barak -- 55% to 36% -- among those polled who expect to vote in Tuesday's election. This represents a slight gain for Sharon of 3 percentage points from a week ago.

Over 81% of those polled say there is at least a 50% chance that they will vote in the special election, with nearly seven out of 10 expecting to vote even if the weather is stormy on Election Day.

However, the outcome of today's election may not have a major impact on current conditions in Israel. While 39% say conditions will improve after the election regardless of who wins, 28% expect conditions to remain unchanged and 14% expect them to worsen. A significant 19% expressed no opinion about the effect of the election on conditions in Israel.

Survey Methods

The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,774 Israeli adults, 18 years and older, conducted February 4, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

1. If the elections for Israel's Prime Minister were to be held today, and the candidates were Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon, whom would you have voted for?

1. Ehud Barak – 34%
2. Ariel Sharon – 48.7%
3. Blank note – 1.9%
4. Will not vote – 7.8%
5. Refused – 7.6%

2. How likely are you to vote on elections day – February 6th, assuming that the candidates would be Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon?

1. Very likely – 68.4%
2. Somewhat likely – 16%
3. Somewhat unlikely – 4.4%
4. Not likely – 9.2%
5. DK – 2%

AMONG THOSE WHO ARE SURE (POSITIVELY AND PROBABLY GO TO VOTE)
Ehud Barak – 36%
Ariel Sharon – 55%

3.How likely are you to vote on elections day – February 6th, on a scale of 1-100%?
0% – 8.1%
1%-50% – 8%
51%-80% – 9.4%
81%-99% – 15.1%
100% – 56.6%

4. And if February 6th will be a stormy day, how likely are you to vote?

1. Very likely – 68.4%
2. Somewhat likely – 14.3%
3. Somewhat unlikely – 3.9%
4. Not likely – 11.7%
5. DK – 1.7%

5. And if survey results show that Ariel Sharon has a great advantage over Ehud Barak, how likely are you to vote?

1. Very likely – 69.8%
2. Somewhat likely – 13.4%
3. Somewhat unlikely – 3.5%
4. Not likely – 10.6%
5. DK – 2.7%

6. And if survey results show a considerable reduction of the gap between Ariel Sharon and Ehud Barak, how likely are you to vote?

1. Very likely – 72.5%
2. Somewhat likely – 12.4%
3. Somewhat unlikely – 3%
4. Not likely – 10.1%
5. DK – 2%

7. Regardless of who wins the elections, in your opinion will Israel's condition ameliorate or worsen after the elections?

1. Ameliorate – 39%
2. Worsen – 13.8%
3. Remain unchanged – 28%
4. DK – 19.3%