Obama Gets More Credit Than Trump for the Improved Economy

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans are split on how much President Donald Trump is responsible for improvements in the U.S. economy over the past year, with 49% crediting him at least a moderate amount, and 50% crediting him not much or not at all. The public is slightly more likely to give Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama, credit -- 56% say he deserves a great deal or a moderate amount versus 41% not much or none at all.

	Trump	Obama
	%	%
A great deal	22	24
Moderate amount	27	32
Not much	26	22
None at all	24	19
GALLUP U.S. POLL, JAN. 8-14, 2018

Trump has boasted in tweets over the past several months about record growth in the stock market, declining unemployment and robust gross domestic product growth. Critics of the president have countered that positive economic developments were already occurring during Obama's presidency and are the result of Obama's economic policies. Given these countervailing narratives, the current question asks Americans how much credit for economic improvements they give to Trump and how much they give to Obama.

Few Americans Give Credit to Both Presidents; Few Give Credit to Neither

Most Americans tend to favor either Obama or Trump when giving credit for economic improvement. Only 17% say both men deserve at least a moderate amount of credit, while another 10% say neither does. The vast majority either give Obama credit but not Trump (39%) or give Trump credit but not Obama (31%).

As would be expected, the differences in views of how much credit Americans give Obama and Trump are closely tied to politics. Republicans are far more likely to give Trump a great deal or moderate amount of credit (83%) than to give it to Obama (18%). Democrats are far more likely to credit Obama (90%) than Trump (21%).

	Trump	Obama
	%	%
National adults	49	56
Party ID
Democrat	21	90
Independent	46	56
Republican	83	18
Age
18 to 34	38	68
35 to 54	51	54
55 and older	54	48
Gender
Men	55	50
Women	41	62
Annual household income
Less than $36,000	43	67
$36,000-$89,999	51	52
$90,000 and above	52	53
GALLUP U.S. POLL, JAN. 8-14, 2018

Those most likely to give credit to Obama include young adults, women and those with annual household incomes under $36,000. Those groups are also among the least likely to credit Trump.

Bottom Line

Less than two years ago, when Gallup's Economic Confidence Index was at -16 -- reflecting the public's negative perceptions of economic conditions -- Gallup asked Americans how much they blamed Obama and his predecessor George W. Bush for the economy. Americans at that time were more likely to blame Bush than Obama.

A steady diet of positive economic news since then has changed Americans' perspectives, moving the Economic Confidence Index into positive territory with a reading of +6 for 2017. The question now has become how much credit to give the current president, many of whose economic policies have not gone into effect or have not been in effect very long, and how much to give to the man he succeeded.

For now, Americans are less likely to give Trump credit (though almost half do) than to give it to Obama. In these times of expanding partisanship, it is unclear whether Democrats will be more willing to credit Trump if the good economic news continues; it is just as unclear whether Republicans will be less likely to consider him responsible if the good news turns bad.