Public Split on Basic Income for Workers Replaced by Robots

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans are split in their support for a hypothetical universal basic income (UBI) program that would guarantee a minimum income for workers who lose their jobs because of advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Forty-eight percent support and 52% oppose a UBI program for workers who are displaced by technology.

	Support	Do not support
	%	%
All Americans	48	52
Gender
Men	43	57
Women	52	48
Age
18 to 35	54	46
36 to 50	50	50
51 to 65	46	54
66+	38	62
Education
Less than a bachelor's degree	51	49
Bachelor's degree or higher	42	58
Political party affiliation
Republican	28	72
Independent	48	52
Democrat	65	35
NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY/GALLUP SURVEY, SEPT. 15-OCT. 10, 2017

These data come from a Northeastern University/Gallup survey of Americans' attitudes toward AI and its effect on their lives and work. The mail survey of 3,297 U.S. adults was conducted Sept. 15-Oct. 10, 2017. The report found 73% of Americans predicting that AI will lead to a loss of more jobs than it creates.

Under a UBI program more generally, the federal government would provide every adult below a certain income threshold with a specific amount of money each year. A UBI program is often talked about as a potential offset to the disruption likely to occur after new technology is adopted. Several high-profile business leaders, including Richard Branson and Mark Zuckerberg, have publicly discussed this idea. Limited test programs of the idea have occurred in Finland and Canada. A trial program is also planned for San Francisco.

Some U.S. demographic groups are more supportive of the concept than others. More than six in 10 self-described Democrats (65%), as one example, say they would support a UBI program, compared with slightly more than one in four (28%) Republicans.

Additionally, roughly half of most U.S. adult age groups express support. However, support is substantially lower -- 38% -- among Americans aged 66 and older.

Americans' Attitudes on Funding a UBI

While the exact cost of a UBI program in the U.S. depends on the specific details, it is estimated the program could run into the trillions of dollars. U.S. adults who favor a UBI program show mixed support for the idea of financing this type of program through taxes: 46% say they would be willing to pay higher personal taxes to fund the program and 54% say they would not be.

	Yes	No
	%	%
Overall	46	54
Gender
Men	49	51
Women	43	57
Age
18 to 35	52	48
36 to 50	42	58
51 to 65	40	60
66+	49	51
Education
Less than a bachelor's degree	38	62
Bachelor's degree or higher	64	36
Political party affiliation
Republican	29	71
Independent	40	60
Democrat	55	45
* Among Americans who support a UBI program
NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY/GALLUP SURVEY, SEPT. 15-OCT. 10, 2017

While support for increased personal taxes to fund a UBI program is mixed, the vast majority of supporters favor taxing the companies that benefit most from AI to fund the program. Eight in 10 supporters of a UBI program (80%) agree that these companies should pay more in taxes in support of such a policy. Support for higher taxes on these companies is at or above 74% among supporters of a UBI program in most demographic groups.

	Agree (5, 4)	Disagree (2, 1)
	%	%
Overall	80	9
Gender
Men	78	13
Women	82	7
Age
18 to 35	83	8
36 to 50	77	9
51 to 65	84	7
66+	77	11
Education
Less than a bachelor's degree	80	9
Bachelor's degree or higher	80	10
Political party affiliation
Republican	74	14
Independent	75	13
Democrat	88	5
* Among Americans who support a UBI program
NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY/GALLUP SURVEY, SEPT. 15-OCT. 10, 2017

Implications

Estimates indicate that as many as 47% of all U.S. jobs are at risk of replacement by AI, and most Americans agree that the adoption of this new technology will create fewer jobs than it makes obsolete. Additionally, half of American workers (51%) say they would need additional education or training to find an equivalent job if they lost their current position to new technology, though fewer -- 43% -- are confident they could secure this education. This potentially sets up a situation in which adopting AI will result in significant unemployment and disruption.

Americans are mixed on their support for the idea of a universal basic income program, which has been advanced by some high-profile proponents, including Elon Musk, to help ease the pain of the AI revolution. Americans' mixed levels of support for a UBI program for those who lose their jobs to AI may be related to the finding that most don't personally fear losing their jobs to the new technology.

Read the full Northeastern University/Gallup report "Optimism and Anxiety: Views on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence and Higher Education's Response."