GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ --Most voters say that the revelation last Thursday of George W. Bush's having been arrested on DUI charges in Maine in 1976 will make no difference in their vote for president this coming Tuesday. Nine percent say the incident will make them less likely to vote for Bush, and 16% say that it is an important indicator of Bush's ability to serve as president. The combined sample of interviews with likely voters conducted Thursday through Saturday, meanwhile, shows Bush maintaining a slight edge, as he has all week, by a 48% to 43% margin over Gore. Ralph Nader is now getting 4% of the vote.
The CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll surveys conducted Friday and Saturday included four questions that asked likely voters about the DUI incident. The most basic asked voters if the fact that Bush acknowledged that he was arrested "on a misdemeanor charge of driving under the influence of alcohol in 1976" made them less likely to vote for him, or it would have no effect on their vote. The results: 87% said that it would have no effect, while 9% said that it would make them less likely to vote for Bush. (The rest either said that it would make them more likely to vote for Bush -- 2% -- or that they didn't know). Here are the results broken out by vote choice:
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"As you may know, George W. Bush acknowledged that he was arrested on a misdemeanor charge of driving under the influence of alcohol in 1976. Does this fact make you less likely to vote for George W. Bush or will it not affect your vote?" N = 1987 Likely Voters November 3-4, 2000 |
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|
ALL LIKELY VOTERS |
Republicans |
Independents |
Democrats |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Less likely to vote for Bush as a result of DUI incident |
9 |
3 |
10 |
14 |
|
Will have no effect on vote |
87 |
92 |
86 |
82 |
|
More likely to vote as result of DUI incident |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
Don't know |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
About 85% of Democrats are already voting for Gore, so in many ways it is logical for them to say that the incident will have "no effect", although it would be possible for Democrats to have respondent "less likely" -- in essence, acknowledging that it reinforced their vote tendencies.
The key group here may by independents, which has generally been fairly well split in terms of their intentions to vote for Bush over Gore. For example, in the latest three-day sample of likely voters surveyed November 2-4, independents break for Bush by just one point, 40% to 39%. Ten percent of this group says that the incident makes them less likely to vote for Bush, which -- in a very tight race -- presumably could make some difference.
A slightly higher percentage of likely voters -- 16% -- say that the incident is an important indicator of Bush's ability to serve as president. More than three-quarters say that it is not. Again, those who say that it is an important indicator skew towards the Democrats, although 64% of this partisan group -- generally voting for Gore and not Bush -- still say that it is not relevant.
|
"Still thinking about this matter, which comes closer to your view: (1) It is an important indicator of Bush's ability to serve as president, or (2) It is not relevant to Bush's ability to serve as president?" N = 1987 Likely Voters November 3-4, 2000 |
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|
ALL LIKELY VOTERS |
Republicans |
Independents |
Democrats |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Important indicator |
16 |
7 |
13 |
28 |
|
Not relevant |
77 |
89 |
80 |
64 |
|
Both, neither |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
Don't know |
5 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
The interpretation of these results is in some ways difficult. It is clear that the first reaction of the significant majority of voters -- be they Republican, independent, or Democrat -- is to say that the DUI incident is not relevant and will not affect their vote.
But there are two cautions. First, even a very small number of voters -- for example, the 10-13% of independents who say that the incident affected them negatively -- could make a difference in a very tight race. Second, the ultimate effect of the incident on Election Day does not necessarily have to manifest itself in these direct responses to questions. It is possible that even voters whose first reaction is to say that the incident will not affect them could ultimately be tilted away from a Bush vote by Election Day.
The Friday and Saturday interviewing also contained two other questions dealing with the DUI incident.
The first asked voters about the timing of the incident. The responses showed that, despite protestations from the Gore campaign that there was no organized Democratic involvement or planning in the release of the story five days before the election, about four out of 10 likely voters agree with the premise that the release of the story was a "dirty trick" that "the Democrats had been planning for some time". Exactly the same number of voters, however, says that the release occurred at this time because it just happened to be uncovered now. Naturally, it is Republicans -- some 68% of them -- who most adhere to the "dirty trick" hypothesis. Independents are split on this issue, while only 15% of Democrats agree.
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"Which comes closer to your view: (1) The release of the story occurred at this time because it was a "dirty trick" the Democrats had been planning for some time", or (2) the release of the story occurred at this time because the facts of the matter just happened to be uncovered now. N = 1987 Likely Voters November 3-4, 2000 |
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|
ALL LIKELY VOTERS |
Republicans |
Independents |
Democrats |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
"Dirty trick" planned for some time |
41 |
68 |
40 |
15 |
|
Facts just uncovered now |
41 |
18 |
40 |
66 |
|
Both, neither |
8 |
6 |
10 |
7 |
|
Don't know |
10 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
The final question dealt with the question of whether or not Bush had an obligation to report the incident earlier because of his high-visibility role as a presidential candidate:
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"Which comes closer to your view: (1) Bush did not have a responsibility to make this known because it was a personal matter, or (2) Bush had a responsibility to make this known before now because he is a candidate for president." November 3-4, 2000 N = 1987 Likely Voters |
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|
ALL LIKELY VOTERS |
Republicans |
Independents |
Democrats |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Did not have responsibility to make it public |
54 |
74 |
53 |
35 |
|
Had responsibility to make it public because he is a candidate for president |
36 |
18 |
35 |
56 |
|
Both, neither |
4 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
|
Don't know |
6 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
The slim majority of likely voters say that it was OK for Bush not to have revealed the incident because it was a personal matter. About a third, much more likely to be Democrats and independents, say that Bush should have revealed it before this time.
The latest three-day sample of likely voters, based on 2,733 interviews conducted Thursday, Friday and Saturday, shows little change from the vote situation as measured all week. Bush now gets 48% of the vote, while Gore gets 43%. Ralph Nader gets 4%. Voters interviewed on Thursday night most probably had not been exposed in any meaningful way to the news discussions of the DUI incident. Over the last six days, using a combined sample of 4856 voters, the totals are Bush 47%, Gore 43% and Nader 4%.
Gallup will release the two-day combined average of interviews conducted with likely voters on Saturday and Sunday later on Sunday evening on www.gallup.com. Gallup's final estimate of the national popular vote will be based on interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday, and will be posted here after midnight on Monday night when final interviewing has been completed across all time zones.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with -- 4,186 -- National Adults, aged 18+, conducted November 2-4, 2000. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points.
Results based on the subsample of -- 3,608 -- people who indicate they are registered to vote have a margin of sampling error of +/- 2 percentage points.
Results based on likely voters are based on the three-day subsample of -- 2,733 -- survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2000 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of Likely Voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points.
Results based on likely voters are based on the six-day subsample of -- 4,856 -- survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2000 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of Likely Voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points.
Gallup's current likely voter estimation for 2000 assumes that 50% of the voting age population (VAP) will turn out to vote. In 1996, turnout among the VAP was 49%. The average turnout rate in all presidential elections since 1980 is approximately 52%.
