Americans Have Higher Hopes for Prosperity Than Peace in 2019

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans are generally optimistic about the nation's employment levels and stock market performance in 2019, even as most are pessimistic about the prospects for political cooperation and world peace. The public is also more negative than positive about the direction of the U.S. crime rate but evenly split in its outlook for economic prosperity and the trajectory of U.S. global power.

	Predict positive situation	Predict negative situation
	%	%
Rate of employment	59	39
Stock market	54	43
Economy	49	49
U.S. power in the world	49	49
Crime rate	41	57
World peace	28	70
Political cooperation	11	87
See survey topline for exact question wording
Gallup, Dec. 3-12, 2018

These findings are from a Dec. 3-12 Gallup poll asking Americans to predict the direction that each of seven aspects of the country or world will take in 2019. While the poll was conducted as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was in the process of falling below 25,000 for the third time in 2018, it was prior to the steep decline that occurred in the second half of the month, as well as the record setting post-Christmas rebound and subsequent volatility. It was also before the start of the partial government shutdown in late December.

Americans' answers to the seven different outlook questions are as follows:

• 59% of U.S. adults believe 2019 will be "a year of full or increasing employment" while 39% expect "a year of rising unemployment."
• 54% predict 2019 will be "a year when the stock market rises" while 43% foresee "a year of a falling stock market."
• 49% predict 2019 will be "a year of economic prosperity" whereas 49% expect "a year of economic difficulty."
• 49% think 2019 will be "a year when America will increase its power in the world" whereas 49% say it will be "a year when American power will decline."
• 41% are optimistic 2019 will be "a year of falling crime rates" while 57% expect "a year of rising crime rates."
• 28% predict 2019 will be "a peaceful year, more or less free of international disputes" while 70% expect it to "a troubled year with much international discord."
• 11% predict 2019 will be "a year of political cooperation" while 87% for "a year of political conflict."

The latest poll represents the first time Gallup has asked Americans for their predictions about the stock market's performance and political cooperation in this format. It provides the fourth measure of expectations about crime since 1998, with the current degree of pessimism fairly typical for those results. Only once, in 1999, did more Americans think crime rates would fall than rise.

The other four items in the poll were measured multiple times in the 1960s and 1970s and then occasionally since 1998. Two of these -- the outlook for the economy and employment -- show above-average optimism, historically, while perceptions of world peace are about average and views of Americans' global influence are below the long-term average.

Current Predictions for Employment Approach Record Highs

The 59% of Americans who believe 2019 will be a year of full or rising employment is among the highest readings in Gallup's trend since 1960, nearly matching the 62% in 1998, during the dotcom boom.

Gallup's lowest measurement of this sentiment was 6% during the 1973-1975 recession. The highest was 67%, during a period of record-setting economic expansion and low unemployment in the 1960s.

Americans' Expressing Moderate Economic Optimism for 2019

The 49% of Americans who believe 2019 will be a year of economic prosperity is similar to the 52% feeling this way a year ago about 2018, as well as the 44% heading into 2004. However, it is better than six years ago, as the country was still recovering from the 2007-2009 recession when just 33% thought 2012 would be a good year for the economy.

Today's optimism about the economy is not as strong as when Americans were looking ahead to 1999, when 62% were optimistic.

Longer term, Americans were relatively upbeat about the economy in the late 1960s, while such optimism was scarce at points in the 1970s.

Expectations For 2019 To Be Peaceful on Par With Recent Decades

Optimism about world peace is relatively scarce, as just 28% of Americans think that 2019 will be "a peaceful year, more or less free of international disputes." However, this is improved from last year's 19% and similar to the levels in all four readings since 1999.

The high point on this measure was 54% heading into 1959, while the low of 11% was in reference to 1966, as President Lyndon Johnson was escalating the Vietnam War.

Views of U.S. Global Influence in Lower Half of Long-Term Range

The 49% of Americans who currently believe America's global power will expand in 2019 is about midway between the 37% to 60% range seen over the past two decades, and closely matches the 51% recorded just prior to 2005, during the Iraq War. However, perceptions of U.S. global influence were much stronger in Gallup's earliest trends on this question during the 1960s, when the optimistic reading was as high as 84%

Partisans Disagree Most on Outlook for U.S. Global Power

Most of these predictions reflect, to some degree, on the sitting president's know-how and leadership, meaning it is natural that Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would be far more optimistic in their views about 2019 with President Donald Trump in office, than are Democrats and Democratic leaners.

Still, today's optimism gap between Republicans and Democrats is far wider for the belief that America will increase its power globally -- 57 percentage points -- than it is for any other prediction. Fairly large partisan gaps, of 38 to 46 points, are also seen in people's outlook for the economy, the stock market and employment.

The gaps are smaller with respect to three areas where neither party group is particularly upbeat: international peace, crime and political cooperation.

	Republican/ Lean Republican	Democrat/ Lean Democratic	Difference
	%	%	pct. pts.
America will increase its power	79	22	57
Year of economic prosperity	75	29	46
Year when stock market rises	75	35	40
Year of full or increasing employment	80	42	38
Peaceful year, free of international disputes	41	18	23
Year of falling crime rates	48	36	12
Year of political cooperation	11	10	1
pct. pts. = percentage-point difference between Republican and Democratic responses
Gallup, Dec. 3-12, 2018

Bottom Line

Despite stock market volatility throughout much of 2018 and some concern that rising interest rates will slow the economy, Americans were feeling fairly good in early December about where the stock market and employment trends were headed in 2019. Also, half were upbeat about the economy overall. Granted, that was prior to the latest tumult in the stock market, but with Republican exuberance driving much of these attitudes, any wobble in confidence is likely to rebound as long as the market doesn't continue to fall in January.

Meanwhile, relatively high partisan accord is found for unemployment with four in 10 Democrats agreeing with most Republicans that the outlook for jobs is bright. On a less positive, but not unwarranted note given recent events, both parties are braced for discord internationally and within U.S. politics.

View complete question responses and trends.

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