Democratic States Exceed Republican States by Four in 2018

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In 2018, 22 U.S. states were Democratic in party orientation, based on the party preferences or leanings of their residents. Another 18 were Republican and 10 were competitive. That four-state Democratic advantage is typical of what Gallup has found in recent years, though Democrats enjoyed much larger leads in 2008 and 2009, and Republican states outnumbered Democratic ones in 2015 and 2016.

	Solid Democratic	Lean Democratic	Competitive	Lean Republican	Solid Republican	Net Democratic
2018	14	8	10	5	13	+4
2017	15	4	15	3	13	+3
2016	13	1	15	7	14	-7
2015	11	3	16	8	12	-6
2014	11	6	18	5	10	+2
2013	12	5	19	2	12	+3
2012	13	6	19	3	9	+7
2011	11	7	15	7	10	+1
2010	13	9	18	5	5	+12
2009	23	10	12	1	4	+28
2008	29	6	10	1	4	+30
Solid states are those in which a party has a 10-point or greater advantage; leaning states are those in which a party has an advantage of more than five points but fewer than 10 points. Competitive states are those in which the party advantage is five points or less.
Gallup

These figures reflect a net increase since 2017 in the number of Democratic (three) and Republican (two) states, with a corresponding decline in the number of competitive states. New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania moved from competitive to Democratic. West Virginia, Louisiana and Indiana shifted from competitive to Republican, while Nebraska went from Republican to competitive.

The results are based on the average party affiliation of each state's residents throughout 2018, using aggregated data from Gallup's U.S. tracking poll. Gallup asked all poll respondents to indicate whether they identify as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Independents were then probed as to whether they lean toward the Republican or the Democratic Party. The figures that form the basis of the state's party classification -- shown for each state at the end of the article -- are the percentage of state residents who identify as Democrats or lean Democratic minus the percentage who identify as Republicans or lean Republican.

States in which there is a 10-percentage-point or greater advantage for one party are considered "solid" for that party. States in which there is an advantage for a party of more than five points but fewer than 10 points are considered "leaning" toward the party, while those in which the parties are within five points of each other are considered competitive.

The most Republican states are found largely in the South and Mountain West, while the most Democratic states are in the Northeast and on the West Coast.

Massachusetts was the single most Democratic state in 2018, with a Democratic advantage of 29 points -- 56% of residents identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, while 27% identified as Republican or leaned Republican.

Massachusetts also ranked as the most Democratic state in 2017 and 2014 and has been second on four other occasions since 2008. Vermont (2015 and 2016), New York (2013), Hawaii (2011-2012), Maryland (2010) and Rhode Island (2008-2009) have ranked as the most Democratic in other years.

Wyoming was the most Republican state in 2018, with 59% of its residents identifying as Republican or leaning Republican and 25% identifying as Democratic or leaning Democratic.

Wyoming has been the most Republican state eight times since 2008, including the past six years as well as in 2009 and 2010. Utah was the most Republican state in 2008, 2011 and 2012.

	Democrat/Lean Democratic	Republican/Lean Republican	Democratic advantage	N	Classification
	%	%	pct. pts.
Massachusetts	56	27	29	1,623	Strong Democratic
Vermont	55	30	25	249	Strong Democratic
Hawaii	54	29	25	301	Strong Democratic
New York	53	30	23	4,591	Strong Democratic
Maryland	54	31	23	1,337	Strong Democratic
California	51	31	20	8,116	Strong Democratic
Connecticut	52	33	19	927	Strong Democratic
Illinois	50	34	16	2,374	Strong Democratic
New Jersey	50	35	15	1,860	Strong Democratic
Washington	50	35	15	1,980	Strong Democratic
Maine	50	37	13	412	Strong Democratic
Delaware	48	35	13	250	Strong Democratic
New Hampshire	48	36	12	350	Strong Democratic
New Mexico	48	38	10	653	Strong Democratic
Oregon	47	38	9	1,316	Lean Democratic
Minnesota	46	38	8	1,507	Lean Democratic
Rhode Island	43	36	7	298	Lean Democratic
Virginia	46	39	7	2,022	Lean Democratic
Colorado	47	40	7	1,549	Lean Democratic
Nevada	45	38	7	647	Lean Democratic
Pennsylvania	46	40	6	3,272	Lean Democratic
Michigan	45	39	6	2,319	Lean Democratic
Georgia	43	42	1	2,214	Competitive
Florida	42	41	1	4,709	Competitive
Wisconsin	43	43	0	1,447	Competitive
Iowa	42	42	0	825	Competitive
Arizona	41	41	0	948	Competitive
Nebraska	42	43	-1	507	Competitive
North Carolina	41	42	-1	2,433	Competitive
Kentucky	42	45	-3	1,124	Competitive
Texas	39	42	-3	5,898	Competitive
Ohio	41	45	-4	2,629	Competitive
Montana	39	46	-7	427	Lean Republican
Indiana	38	46	-8	1,575	Lean Republican
Louisiana	37	45	-8	1,117	Lean Republican
Oklahoma	38	46	-8	1,073	Lean Republican
Missouri	38	47	-9	1,532	Lean Republican
South Carolina	37	47	-10	1,262	Strong Republican
South Dakota	40	51	-11	303	Strong Republican
Kansas	36	47	-11	746	Strong Republican
West Virginia	37	49	-12	445	Strong Republican
Mississippi	36	48	-12	666	Strong Republican
Tennessee	35	48	-13	1,692	Strong Republican
Arkansas	35	48	-13	758	Strong Republican
Idaho	34	50	-16	591	Strong Republican
Alabama	35	52	-17	1,275	Strong Republican
Alaska	33	51	-18	232	Strong Republican
North Dakota	30	55	-25	241	Strong Republican
Utah	28	56	-28	952	Strong Republican
Wyoming	25	59	-34	286	Strong Republican
Based on 2018 Gallup tracking. Data for AK, DE, HI, ND, RI, SD, VT and WY based on combined data from 2018 Gallup tracking and 2018 Gallup Poll Social Series surveys.
Gallup

Editor's Note: The story has been updated to correct the sample size of national adults.