GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- In line with news about the actual decrease in crime rates in the United States over the past several years, a new Gallup poll shows that Americans continue to be more likely than in the past to perceive that there is less crime in the United States as a wholeandin their own neighborhoods. Still, Americans have not moved to the point where a majority agrees that the crime rate is declining in this country, underscoring the tenacious hold that the idea of a crime problem across the country has on the public, no matter what official statistics may show.
Increased Optimism About Crime Began in 1996
When asked if there is more or less crime in the U.S. than there
was a year ago, 41% of Americans answered "less" in the new poll.
This is the highest percentage of people perceiving less crime in
the country since Gallup started asking this question in 1989.
Forty seven percent of Americans feel that there is now more crime
in the country than a year ago. This number is the lowest Gallup
has measured over the past 11 years. The changes over this time
period, in fact, have been dramatic, going from a 84% more crime
and 5% less crime response in 1989 – essentially a universal
perception that crime was on the upswing – to the current 47%
more to 41% less response pattern. Still, although this pattern of
change has been highly significant, the "more" and "less" lines
have still not crossed. Even in a time when each FBI report
emphasizes the decrease in major crimes, often to much fanfare, a
significant number of Americans hold to their belief that crime is
still going up, not down.
Almost half of Americans also perceive that there is less crime intheir own areathan there was one year ago –(46%) while only about a third perceive that there is more crime in their neighborhood (34%). Fifteen percent of respondents do not see a change from one year ago. These perceptions have not changed as much as the perceptions of overall crime in the U.S., for the most part because the starting point was already lower. In 1989, for example, just 53% of Americans said that there was more crime in their local area than a year ago, while 18% said there was less.
The new poll underscores the strong differences in Americans' perceptions of the crime problem across the country as opposed to their perceptions of crime in their own local area. Sixty percent of Americans perceive crime to be an "extremely serious" or "very serious" problem in the United States, while only 12% think that it is an "extremely serious" or "very serious" problem in their own neighborhood. From a different perspective, only 4% of Americans say that crime is not a serious problem in the U.S., compared to 53% who say it is not a serious problem in the area where they live.
These highly significant differences are reflective of the same type of national versus local distinction that pollsters have found for years relating to such topics as health care, education and Congress. Americans in general tend to see problems as more severe on the national level than at their own local level, and perceptions of crime appear to be no different.
Unsafe to Walk in Your Neighborhood?
About a third of Americans express concern about a dangerous area
near where they live in response to a question that asks: "Is there
any area near where you live – that is, within a mile –
where you would be afraid to walk alone at night?." There has been
relatively little change on this measure over the past 35 years.
Thirty four percent say there is such an unsafe area in their
neighborhood this year, exactly the same number as responded in the
affirmative in 1965, when the question was first asked. The high
point on the measure was 43% in 1989 and 1993. Not surprisingly,
residents of urban areas are more likely to perceive dangerous
areas nearby (48%) than are those who live in suburban (32%) and
rural (21%) areas. Women are also more likely to feel that there is
an area in their neighborhood in which they would be afraid to walk
alone at night – 43% of women feel this way compared to 25%
of men.
Who is most afraid to walk in their neighborhoods at night – young Americans or old Americans? Perhaps surprisingly, it is those who are younger. Forty one percent of those between the ages of 18 and 29 say there is an area close to them that they would be scared to walk in at night, compared to 33% of those over the age of 50.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1012 adults, 18 years and older, conducted between August 29 and September 5,2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Is there any area near where you live - that is, within a mile - where you would be afraid to walk alone at night?
|
Yes |
No |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2000 Aug 29-Sep 5 |
34 |
66 |
* |
|
1997 Aug 22-25 |
38 |
61 |
1 |
|
1996 Jul 25-28 |
39 |
60 |
1 |
|
1993 Oct 13-18 |
43 |
56 |
1 |
|
1989 |
43 |
57 |
-- |
|
1968 |
31 |
69 |
-- |
|
1965 |
34 |
66 |
-- |
Overall, how would you describe the problem of crime [ROTATED: in the United States/in the area where you live] -- is it extremely serious, very serious, moderately serious, not too serious, or not serious at all? How would you describe the problem of crime … extremely serious, very serious, moderately serious, not too serious, or not serious at all?
A. In the United States
|
Extremely serious |
Very serious |
Moderately serious |
Not too serious |
Not serious at all |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2000 Aug 29-Sep 5 |
22 |
38 |
35 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
B. In the area where you live
|
Extremely serious |
Very serious |
Moderately serious |
Not too serious |
Not serious at all |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2000 Aug 29-Sep 5 |
3 |
9 |
35 |
35 |
18 |
* |
Is there more crime in your area than there was a year ago, or less?
|
More |
Less |
Same (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2000 Aug 29-Sep 5 |
34 |
46 |
15 |
5 |
|
1998 Oct 23-25 |
31 |
48 |
16 |
5 |
|
1997 Aug 22-25 |
46 |
32 |
20 |
2 |
|
1996 Jul 25-28 |
46 |
24 |
25 |
5 |
|
1992 Feb 28-Mar 1 |
54 |
19 |
23 |
4 |
|
1990 Sep |
51 |
18 |
24 |
8 |
|
1989 Jun |
53 |
18 |
22 |
7 |
|
1989 Jan |
47 |
21 |
27 |
5 |
|
1983 |
37 |
17 |
36 |
10 |
|
1981 |
54 |
8 |
29 |
9 |
|
1977 |
43 |
17 |
32 |
8 |
|
1975 |
50 |
12 |
29 |
9 |
|
1972 |
51 |
10 |
27 |
12 |
Is there more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago, or less?
|
More |
Less |
Same (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2000 Aug 29-Sep 5 |
47 |
41 |
7 |
5 |
|
1998 Oct 23-25 |
52 |
35 |
8 |
5 |
|
1997 Aug 22-25 |
64 |
25 |
6 |
5 |
|
1996 Jul 25-28 |
71 |
15 |
8 |
6 |
|
1993 Oct 13-18 |
87 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
|
1992 Feb 28-Mar 1 |
89 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
|
1990 Sep 10 |
84 |
3 |
7 |
6 |
|
1989 Jun |
84 |
5 |
5 |
6 |