GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The national front-runners for the 2008 presidential nominations continue to be former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the Republican Party and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Party. Giuliani's pro-choice views were openly vetted during the Republican debate held earlier this month at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California, and he has since tried to clarify them. It is not yet clear whether the resulting controversy has significantly harmed him among Republican voters.
According to a May 10-13, 2007, Gallup Poll, 29% of Republicans favor Giuliani for his party's nomination, giving him a six-point lead over John McCain, with 23%. Clinton holds a nine-point lead in the Democratic race over second-place contender Barack Obama, 35% vs. 26%.
In early March, and again in early April, Giuliani led McCain by more than 20 points, making him a more formidable front-runner than he appears to be in the current poll. More recently, Giuliani held a 14-point lead over McCain, 34% to 20%, in early May. But neither his five-point decline to 29% in the latest poll, nor McCain's three-point increase, are statistically significant changes. Thus, it is important to wait until the next poll to see whether the race has truly tightened, or whether the apparently closer race merely reflects random variation because of normal sampling error.
Some of the changes in Giuliani's and McCain's support levels can be attributed to support for actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, since Gallup added him to the list of potential candidates in late March. However, Gallup's follow-up question, which asks Republican voters whom they would support if the race narrows down to Giuliani and McCain, does not have this complication.
The 2007 "narrow-down" trend shows Giuliani consistently well ahead of McCain, including in the latest poll, in which he leads by 10 points, 52% to 42%. This is Giuliani's slimmest lead on Gallup's head-to-head measure since January, when he led by only 8 points, but the changes in support for Giuliani and McCain that produced this gap are not statistically significant. Thus, it would be premature to say that the race has, indeed, tightened.
Turning back to the Democratic field, Clinton's strongest leads in the race for her party's nomination were 19-point advantages over Obama in mid-February and again in early April. While slimmer than that, Clinton's nine-point advantage over Obama today is not significantly different from her 15-point lead earlier this month.
Gallup's Democratic head-to-head question, asking Democrats to choose between Clinton and Obama, finds no significant change from earlier this month. Clinton currently leads Obama on this measure by 14 points, 54% to 40%.
The Remaining Democratic Hopefuls
A number of Democratic candidates besides Clinton and Obama have announced their presidential campaigns or intentions to run, but of these, only John Edwards has a meaningful level of support, currently 12%. Al Gore, who has not made any formal announcement about seeking the 2008 nomination, is in a close race with Edwards for third place, with 16%. The remaining candidates all garner no more than 2% support.
None of these lower-ranked candidates' positions in the race have changed substantially over the past several months.
|
First Choice for 2008 Democratic Nomination
|
|
|
% |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
35 |
|
Barack Obama |
26 |
|
Al Gore |
16 |
|
John Edwards |
12 |
|
Bill Richardson |
2 |
|
Joe Biden |
2 |
|
Al Sharpton |
1 |
|
Christopher Dodd |
1 |
|
Wesley Clark |
1 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
* |
|
Mike Gravel |
0 |
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
|
None |
* |
|
All/any |
0 |
|
No opinion |
4 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|
Other Republican Contenders
At this point, three Republican candidates are clustered within reach of third place, though Thompson seems to hold the clearest title for the position. Although his leads over Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are not great, he has generally maintained a slight edge over both of them across five consecutive Gallup Poll trial heats conducted since March, when Gallup first included him in the mix of Republican names. Romney and Gingrich are closely matched behind him, appearing to vie for fourth place. No other candidate registers more than 2% support from Republicans.
|
First Choice for 2008 Republican Nomination
|
|
|
% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
29 |
|
John McCain |
23 |
|
Fred Thompson |
12 |
|
Mitt Romney |
8 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
6 |
|
Sam Brownback |
2 |
|
Tommy Thompson |
1 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
1 |
|
Tom Tancredo |
1 |
|
George Pataki |
1 |
|
Duncan Hunter |
* |
|
Jim Gilmore |
* |
|
Chuck Hagel |
* |
|
Ron Paul |
0 |
|
|
|
|
Other |
2 |
|
None |
5 |
|
All/any |
0 |
|
No opinion |
8 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|
Giuliani's Image in the Spotlight
Giuliani stepped into a political briar patch over his abortion views in recent weeks after answering questions about his views at the May 3 Republican debate, and then reformulating those answers in post-debate interviews. Giuliani appears to be trying to stake out a nuanced pro-choice position that may not satisfy either side of the debate, but won't completely disqualify him among the conservative right, either.
The slight dip in Giuliani's support in the latest poll (though not statistically significant) raises the question of whether this controversy is hurting him among Republicans. It is interesting to note that while support for Giuliani is lower in Gallup's new poll compared with the previous survey, there has been no decline in Republicans' views of him personally. The percentage of Republicans viewing him favorably stands at 81% today, compared with 79% in early May. At the same time, there has been no significant change in his favorability among independents but a slight improvement among Democrats.
McCain's image has also not changed appreciably over the past month.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 10-13, 2007. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For results based on the sample of 429 Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 489 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
29. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.
[ROTATED: Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback; Former Virginia Governor, Jim Gilmore; Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich; Former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani; Nebraska Senator, Chuck Hagel; Former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee; California Congressman, Duncan Hunter; Arizona Senator, John McCain; Former New York Governor, George Pataki; Former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney; Colorado Congressman, Tom Tancredo; Former Wisconsin Governor, Tommy Thompson; Former Tennessee Senator, Fred Thompson; Texas Congressman, Ron Paul]
BASED ON 429 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
|
|
May
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
Jan
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
29 |
34 |
35 |
38 |
31 |
44 |
40 |
31 |
|
John McCain |
23 |
20 |
22 |
16 |
22 |
20 |
24 |
27 |
|
Fred Thompson |
12 |
13 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Mitt Romney |
8 |
7 |
9 |
6 |
3 |
8 |
5 |
7 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
6 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
10 |
|
Sam Brownback |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
Tommy Thompson |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
* |
2 |
1 |
|
Tom Tancredo |
1 |
1 |
* |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
N/A |
|
George Pataki |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
Duncan Hunter |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
|
Jim Gilmore |
* |
1 |
2 |
* |
* |
* |
2 |
2 |
|
Chuck Hagel |
* |
1 |
-- |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Ron Paul |
-- |
* |
2 |
2 |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
None |
5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
|
All/any |
-- |
-- |
-- |
* |
1 |
* |
-- |
-- |
|
No opinion |
8 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
||||||||
|
Contact Gallup for full trend. |
||||||||
Q.29 CONTINUED
Republican Presidential Nomination Preference (Without Newt Gingrich):
|
|
May
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
32 |
36 |
38 |
42 |
34 |
49 |
42 |
|
John McCain |
24 |
21 |
24 |
18 |
22 |
21 |
25 |
|
Fred Thompson |
12 |
14 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Mitt Romney |
10 |
9 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
10 |
6 |
|
Sam Brownback |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
|
Tommy Thompson |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Tom Tancredo |
1 |
1 |
* |
2 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Jim Gilmore |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
George Pataki |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Duncan Hunter |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Chuck Hagel |
* |
1 |
-- |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
|
Ron Paul |
-- |
* |
2 |
2 |
1 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
None |
5 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
|
All/any |
-- |
-- |
-- |
* |
1 |
* |
-- |
|
No opinion |
8 |
8 |
4 |
5 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
|||||||
|
NOTE: Ballot recalculated by substituting Gingrich supporters' second choice for their Gingrich vote |
|||||||
30. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party who named a candidate they support for the Republican nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?
COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.29-30): FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES
BASED ON 429 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
|
|
May
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Rudy Giuliani |
49 |
55 |
61 |
62 |
57 |
64 |
62 |
|
John McCain |
40 |
37 |
41 |
39 |
38 |
42 |
47 |
|
Fred Thompson |
20 |
21 |
19 |
16 |
16 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Mitt Romney |
19 |
20 |
15 |
12 |
9 |
14 |
11 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
15 |
16 |
16 |
19 |
15 |
21 |
18 |
|
George Pataki |
4 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
|
Sam Brownback |
4 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
|
Tommy Thompson |
3 |
5 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Jim Gilmore |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Chuck Hagel |
1 |
2 |
* |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Tom Tancredo |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
|
Ron Paul |
1 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Duncan Hunter |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
4 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
|
None |
10 |
9 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
|
All/any |
-- |
* |
-- |
* |
1 |
-- |
-- |
|
No opinion |
8 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
|||||||
|
Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses. |
|||||||
31. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) S uppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain . Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Rudy Giuliani (or) John McCain]?
BASED ON 429 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
|
|
Giuliani |
McCain |
No
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2007 May 10-13 |
52 |
42 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 May 4-6 |
56 |
38 |
6 |
|
2007 Apr 13-15 |
57 |
39 |
4 |
|
2007 Apr 2-5 |
57 |
38 |
6 |
|
2007 Mar 23-25 |
54 |
39 |
7 |
|
2007 Mar 2-4 |
58 |
34 |
8 |
|
2007 Feb 9-11 |
57 |
39 |
4 |
|
2007 Jan 5-7 |
50 |
42 |
8 |
32. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.
[ROTATED: Delaware Senator, Joe Biden; Retired General, Wesley Clark; New York Senator, Hillary Clinton; Connecticut Senator, Christopher Dodd; Former North Carolina Senator, John Edwards; Former Vice President, Al Gore; Former Alaska Senator, Mike Gravel; Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich; Illinois Senator, Barack Obama; New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson; The Reverend, Al Sharpton]
BASED ON 489 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
|
May
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
Jan
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
35 |
38 |
31 |
38 |
35 |
36 |
40 |
29 |
|
Barack Obama |
26 |
23 |
26 |
19 |
22 |
22 |
21 |
18 |
|
Al Gore |
16 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
14 |
11 |
|
John Edwards |
12 |
12 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
9 |
13 |
13 |
|
Bill Richardson |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
|
Joe Biden |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
|
Al Sharpton |
1 |
-- |
2 |
* |
-- |
* |
-- |
1 |
|
Christopher Dodd |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
-- |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Wesley Clark |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
* |
-- |
* |
* |
|
Mike Gravel |
-- |
* |
1 |
1 |
-- |
1 |
* |
N/A |
|
Tom Vilsack |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
* |
* |
|
John Kerry |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
* |
2 |
* |
1 |
* |
2 |
|
None |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
|
All/any |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
* |
-- |
* |
|
No opinion |
4 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
||||||||
|
Contact Gallup for full trend. |
||||||||
Democratic Presidential Nomination Preference (Without Al Gore):
|
|
May
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Hillary Clinton |
42 |
45 |
37 |
43 |
42 |
44 |
48 |
|
Barack Obama |
28 |
27 |
29 |
19 |
24 |
27 |
23 |
|
John Edwards |
14 |
14 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
10 |
14 |
|
Bill Richardson |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
|
Joe Biden |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
|
Al Sharpton |
1 |
* |
2 |
* |
-- |
1 |
-- |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
|
Wesley Clark |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
Christopher Dodd |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
-- |
* |
1 |
|
Mike Gravel |
-- |
* |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
* |
|
Tom Vilsack |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
2 |
1 |
|
None |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
All/any |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
* |
-- |
|
No opinion |
5 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
|||||||
|
NOTE: Ballot recalculated by substituting Gore supporters' second choice for their Gore vote |
|||||||
33. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party who named a candidate they support for the Democratic nomination in 2008) Who would be your second choice?
COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.32-33): FIRST AND SECOND CHOICES
BASED ON 489 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
|
May
|
May
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Feb
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
59 |
60 |
58 |
58 |
57 |
59 |
67 |
|
Barack Obama |
47 |
46 |
46 |
36 |
42 |
43 |
42 |
|
Al Gore |
30 |
31 |
28 |
29 |
32 |
34 |
26 |
|
John Edwards |
24 |
29 |
32 |
32 |
30 |
21 |
26 |
|
Bill Richardson |
8 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
|
Joe Biden |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
Wesley Clark |
3 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Christopher Dodd |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Mike Gravel |
* |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
|
Tom Vilsack |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
4 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
|
None |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
|
All/any |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
-- |
|
No opinion |
4 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
7 |
4 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||||
|
N/A = Not asked |
|||||||
|
Percentages add to more than 100% due to multiple responses. |
|||||||
34. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Suppose the choice for the Democratic presidential nomination narrows down to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Which one would you prefer the Democratic Party nominate for president -- [ROTATED: Hillary Clinton (or) Barack Obama]?
BASED ON 489 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
|
|
Clinton |
Obama |
No opinion |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2007 May 10-13 |
54 |
40 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007 May 4-6 |
56 |
37 |
7 |
|
2007 Apr 13-15 |
53 |
41 |
6 |
|
2007 Apr 2-5 |
61 |
33 |
6 |
|
2007 Mar 23-25 |
56 |
37 |
6 |
|
2007 Mar 2-4 |
56 |
36 |
8 |
|
2007 Feb 9-11 |
62 |
33 |
5 |
|
2007 Jan 12-14 |
53 |
39 |
8 |