GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ – The House of Representatives votes this week on the important and much-anticipated bill that would approve Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China. Despite claims by some that this may be the most important vote of the year, if not the decade, the issue is just beginning to engage the attention of the average American. Still, among both the general public, and among those who are following the issue most closely, the tide of public opinion is running towards passage – by almost a 20-point margin in a Gallup poll just completed over the weekend.
Attention Paid to China Trade Issue Below Attention Paid
to NAFTA in 1993
Just two weeks ago, in early May, only 29% of Americans said they
had been following the China/World Trade Organization situation
either very or somewhat closely – making it at that point one
of the least-followed news events of the past decade. Now,
according to a Gallup poll just completed Sunday, attention is up:
41% of Americans say they have been following the issue
closely.
The current battle over approving normal trade relations with China is in many ways similar to the debate that accompanied the congressional vote on NAFTA in November 1993. Public attention to NAFTA escalated during the fall of 1993 as the issue came close to a vote, accompanied by such high-profile events as the Larry King Show debate between Ross Perot and Vice President Al Gore. While only about 40% of the public was paying close attention to NAFTA when Gallup first measured it in September 1993, attention zoomed to almost 70% by November of that year. This year, even on the threshold of this week's vote, Americans' attention to the China trade issue is much lower. The 41% level recorded for the China issue this past weekend – by way of further comparison – is only at the level of attention given to the controversial – but hardly consequential "Who Wants to Marry a Multimillionaire" broadcast in February. It is way below the top news story of the year so far – the Elian Gonzalez saga – which was being closely followed by almost eight out of ten Americans in late January.
Public, Including Those Following Issue Most Closely,
Favors Passage
When asked directly about the China trade bill, American public
opinion appears to be coalescing on the side of passage of the
agreement. In the Gallup poll just finished this weekend, the
public approves of the bill by a 56% to 37% margin. This is up from
two previous polls conducted this year. In January, the public
approved of the measure by a 50% to 40% margin, and in an early
April poll, the public was split down the middle.
Public opinion in favor of increased China trade at this point is actually a little stronger than was observed in five different Gallup polls asking about NAFTA in the fall of 1993. All five polls showed that the public was either split evenly or slightly opposed to NAFTA in 1993. (Some polling since that point, however, suggests that the public feels NAFTA has had a more positive than negative impact. This past weekend, for example, when asked about NAFTA's impact on the United States, Americans chose "good impact" over "bad impact" by 47% to 39%.)
What about Americans who are paying the most attention to the China trade issue and who thus are presumably the best informed? There is little difference between their opinions and those of others. Those closely following the issue want congressional passage of a normalized trade relations bill by a 55% to 41% margin.
The Impact of the Bill on U.S. Jobs and Human Rights in
China
Despite overall majority support for the China bill, Americans
agree with the position advocated by labor that increased trade
with China will cost U.S. jobs. Fifty-seven percent of Americans in
an early May Gallup poll – about the same percentage as in a
January poll – said that increased trade between the United
States and China would mostly hurt U.S. workers.
The second issue raised by those opposed to the bill relates to the impact on human rights within China if an annual review of China's trade status by the U.S. government is no longer mandatory.
Most Americans agree that human rights are a significant problem in the world's largest country. In both 1997 and 1999, almost 70% of the American public said that the government in China does a bad job of respecting the human rights of its citizens. Still, there is contradictory evidence about the U.S. public's perceptions of the relationship between increased trade with China and human rights within that country. In this weekend's poll, when given a choice between two alternative positions on China, Americans were more likely to opt for holding back on increased trade with China until the Chinese government promoted more economic, political and religious freedom for its citizens, rather than the alternative, which argued that increased trade would itself promote more freedoms.
But in an early May poll, when Americans were asked about human rights in a different way, 47% said that increased trade would help human rights in China, while only 26% said it would hurt human rights.
These findings suggest that the public's views on the human rights issue are not firmly established, and that the way in which the issue is framed can have a major impact on these attitudes. In turn, this suggests that the human rights argument is one that could potentially hold sway with the public if correctly articulated.
The bottom line, however, is that the human rights linkage argument is at this time apparently not well enough established to affect Americans' overall position in favor of the pending trade legislation.
Finally, another factor in the trade pact's favor is the perception on the part of the American public that the China/WTO pact would help the U.S. economy rather than hurt it, by a 48% to 37% margin in a May 5-7 Gallup poll.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on
telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of
1,031and 1,011 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 5-7, and
May 18-21, 2000, respectively. For results based on these samples,
one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
Overall, do you think increased trade between the United States and China would mostly help or mostly hurt--(Rotated)? How about … ?
|
Mostly help |
Mostly hurt |
NO DIFFERENCE (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
A. U.S. workers
|
2000 May 5-7 |
28 |
57 |
4 |
11 |
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
32 |
56 |
5 |
7 |
B. The U.S. economy
|
2000 May 5-7 |
48 |
37 |
4 |
11 |
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
51 |
38 |
3 |
8 |
C. Human rights in China
|
2000 May 5-7 |
47 |
26 |
9 |
18 |
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
52 |
27 |
8 |
13 |
D. The Chinese economy
|
2000 May 5-7 |
77 |
9 |
2 |
12 |
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
77 |
12 |
1 |
10 |
How closely have you been following the news about China and the World Trade Organization?
|
Very closely |
Somewhat closely |
Not too closely |
Not at all closely |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2000 May 18-21 |
8 |
33 |
34 |
24 |
1 |
|
2000 May 5-7 |
7 |
22 |
31 |
39 |
1 |
Would you favor or oppose Congress passing a law that would normalize trade relations between China and the United States and that would allow China to join the World Trade Organization?
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2000 May 18-21 |
56 |
37 |
7 |
|
2000 Apr 7-9 |
43 |
45 |
12 |
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
50 |
40 |
10 |
|
1999 Nov 18-21** |
54 |
33 |
13 |
** Wording:Do you favor or oppose the recent agreement between China and the United States that would allow China to join the World Trade Organization?
Which of the following statements comes closer to your view -- [ROTATE: The U.S. should increase trade with China NOW, because doing so will promote more economic, political and religious freedoms in that country (or) the U.S. should NOT increase trade with China until the Chinese government gives more economic, political and religious freedom to its citizens]?
|
Increase trade with China now |
Should not increase trade until gives more freedom |
No opinion |
|
|
2000 May 18-21 |
33% |
62 |
5 |
|
1999 Nov 18-21 |
35% |
61 |
4 |
(vol.) Volunteered response
