Americans Think Increased Trade With China Will Help U.S. Economy but Hurt Workers

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Congress will vote this month on whether or not to permanently normalize trade relations with China, which would allow China to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Many members of Congress have still not decided whether to vote for or against the legislation. This is perhaps understandable given the complexity of the issue. The American public apparently recognizes this complexity as well, seeing many benefits to increased trade with China but also some more negative consequences.

The latest Gallup poll, conducted May 5-7, shows that Americans are slightly more likely to believe increased trade with China will benefit the U.S. economy than believe that it would hurt it, by a 48% to 37% margin, with 11% undecided. However, illustrating the complicated nature of the proposed increase in trade between the two nations, Americans are much more likely to believe that increased trade with China will "mostly hurt" U.S. workers (57%), as opposed to helping them (28%).

On this issue, there is not a great deal of difference between Republicans and Democrats nationwide. As far as economic growth is concerned, 47% of Republicans think increased trade will help the U.S. economy, while 39% think it will hurt it. Among Democrats, 49% think the U.S. economy will be helped and 32% think it will be hurt. From of the standpoint of American workforce, 28% percent of Republicans think increased U.S.-China trade will help U.S. workers, while 60% think U.S. workers will be hurt. Thirty percent of Democrats expect U.S. workers will be helped, while 54% think they will be hurt.

Younger Americans seem to be most optimistic about the possibilities of increased trade with China. Fifty-nine percent of Americans aged 18 to 29 believe that the U.S. economy will benefit, which is at least ten percentage points higher than any other age group. Younger Americans are also slightly more likely to think that increased trade will help U.S. workers -- 34% believe this, a greater percentage than any other age group.

Americans See Only Benefits for China
While Americans think increased trade with China will have both positive and negative effects for the United States, they generally believe that China will only benefit from a new trade partnership. For example, more than three-quarters of Americans (77%) believe that increasing trade between the U.S. and China will "mostly help" the Chinese economy, while only 9% believe it will hurt. Americans at higher income and education levels are especially likely to believe this: fully 85% of those with household incomes over $50,000, and 87% of those with college degrees, think increased trade will benefit the Chinese economy.

Americans also believe that the positive effects of increased trade are not confined to economic concerns. Despite the opinions of those who oppose the treaty, the poll shows that 47% of Americans think that increased trade will help human rights in China, while only 26% think it will hurt them (18% have no opinion). Liberals are much more inclined to think human rights in China would improve as a result of increased trade relations (56%) than are conservatives (41%). Similar -- though not as strong -- patterns emerge for Democrats (52%) and Republicans (44%).

Consistent with the above findings, the youngest segment of the American public is more optimistic on both counts, with 83% of those aged 18-29 believing that increased trade between the U.S. and China will "mostly help" the Chinese economy, and 52% believing it will help improve human rights in China.

Americans Have Not Been Following Debate Closely
Although the debate has been percolating in Congress for several months, public awareness of the U.S.-China trade agreement appears to be extremely low. This is evident by the fact that only 29% of Americans claim to be following news about China and the World Trade Organization either "very" or "somewhat" closely, leaving 70% of Americans with not much exposure to the issue. The current level of attention paid to China and the WTO is among the lowest registered when compared to more than 60 other news events that Gallup has measured since 1991.

Not surprisingly, the public offers little guidance to members of Congress who have not decided how to vote on this issue. A majority of Americans -- 56% -- do not have an opinion either way about normalizing U.S.-China trade relations, with 25% in favor and 19% opposed.

Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,031 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 5-7, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

How closely have you been following the news about China and the World Trade Organization?

 

	Very closely	Somewhat closely	Not too closely	Not at all closely	No opinion
2000 May 5-7	7	22	31	39	1

Would you favor or oppose Congress passing a law that would normalize trade relations between China and the United States and that would allow China to join the World Trade Organization -- or are you unsure?

 

	Favor	Oppose	No opinion
2000 May 5-7	25	19	56
2000 Apr 7-9	43	45	12
2000 Jan 25-26	50	40	10
1999 Nov 18-21*	54	33	13

(*) Wording:Do you favor or oppose the recent agreement between China and the United States that would allow China to join the World Trade Organization?

Overall, do you think increased trade between the United States and China would mostly help or mostly hurt--(Rotated)? How about…

 

	Mostly help	Mostly hurt	NO DIFFERENCE	No opinion
A.U.S. workers
2000 May 5-7	28	57	4	11
2000 Jan 25-26	32	56	5	7

B.The U.S. economy

 

2000 May 5-7	48	37	4	11
2000 Jan 25-26	51	38	3	8

C.Human rights in China

 

2000 May 5-7	47	26	9	18
2000 Jan 25-26	52	27	8	13

D.The Chinese economy

 

2000 May 5-7	77	9	2	12
2000 Jan 25-26	77	12	1	10

Expected Impact of Increased U.S.-China Trade by Subgroup, May 5-7 Gallup Poll

 

	Help (Hurt) U.S. Workers	Help (Hurt) U.S. Economy	Help (Hurt) Human Rights in China	Help (Hurt) Chinese Economy
Partisanship
Republican	28% (60%)	47% (39%)	44% (29%)	76% (8%)
Independent	28% (57%)	48% (39%)	44% (27%)	77% (10%)
Democrat	30% (54%)	49% (32%)	52% (22%)	79% (8%)
Ideology
Conservative	28% (59%)	43% (42%)	41% (28%)	77% (9%)
Moderate	30% (53%)	50% (32%)	47% (24%)	75% (11%)
Liberal	25% (62%)	52% (37%)	56% (26%)	83% (6%)
Education
High School or Less	27% (60%)	43% (40%)	46% (25%)	71% (12%)
Some College	28% (58%)	45% (41%)	44% (26%)	79% (9%)
College Graduate	32% (52%)	60% (26%)	51% (27%)	87% (4%)
Income
Less than $20,000	33% (50%)	43% (36%)	48% (25%)	72% (12%)
$20,000 to $50,000	27% (61%)	50% (38%)	48% (26%)	76% (11%)
$50,000 and above	31% (58%)	51% (38%)	47% (28%)	85% (6%)
Age
18-29	34% (59%)	59% (34%)	52% (30%)	83% (9%)
30-49	27% (58%)	48% (36%)	46% (27%)	77% (8%)
50-64	29% (59%)	44% (42%)	47% (23%)	76% (12%)
65 and above	28% (52%)	41% (36%)	41% (21%)	72% (7%)

Attention Paid to Various News Events, 1991-2000 Gallup Polls

 

YEAR	DATE	NEWS EVENT	Very/ Somewhat Closely	Not too/ Not at all Closely
1997	Sep 6-7	Death of Princess Diana	85	14
1991	Feb 24	Beginning of Ground War in Iraq	84	16
1999	Apr 13-14	Situation in Kosovo	84	16
1998	Aug 21-23	Clinton-Lewinsky Matter	83	17
1999	Jul 22-25	Death of John F. Kennedy, Jr.	81	19
1999	Feb 14-15	Custody Dispute over Cuban Boy Saved Off Florida Coast	78	22
2000	Jan 25-26	Elian Gonzalez	78	21
1999	Mar 30-31	Situation in Kosovo	78	21
1998	Dec 12-13	Congressional Impeachment Hearings	77	23
1993	Dec 4-6	Jack Kevorkian, MD	77	23
1997	Aug 12-13	UPS Strike	77	23
1998	Dec 15-16	Congressional Impeachment Hearings	75	25
1999	Jan 8-10	Congressional Impeachment Hearings	73	27
1993	Apr 20	Standoff in Waco, Texas	73	26
1991	Apr 4-6	Fighting in Iraq Between Army and Kurdish Rebels	71	28
1997	Sep 6-7	Death of Mother Theresa	70	28
1996	Mar 8-10	Two Civilian Airplanes Shot Down by Cuba	69	31
1993	Nov 19-21	NAFTA	68	31
1999	Dec 9-12	Custody Dispute over Cuban Boy Saved off Florida Coast	68	31
1993	Sep 10-12	Pres. Clinton's Plan to Reform Health Care	68	31
1993	Sep 10-12	Clinton/Gore Plan to Make Government More Efficient	67	32
2000	Feb 20-21	Internet Hackers	65	35
1993	Nov 15-16	NAFTA	65	35
1994	Feb 7	Situation in Bosnia	65	35
1993	Jun 18-21	Recent Events in Somalia	63	37
1997	Nov 6-9	JonBenet Ramsey	61	37
1998	Dec 11	Congressional Impeachment Hearings	59	41
1997	May 30- Jun 1	Paula Jones Lawsuit	59	41
2000	Mar 17-19	JonBenet Ramsey	58	42
1998	Dec 10	Congressional Impeachment Hearings	56	43
2000	Feb 14-15	Laser Eye Surgery Procedure	55	45
1994	Aug 8-9	Recent Events in Haiti	55	44
1998	Dec 9	Congressional Impeachment Hearings	54	46
1993	Nov 2-4	NAFTA	52	48
1993	Sep 10-12	Recent Israel-PLO Agreement	52	47
2000	May 5-7	Justice Department Lawsuit against Microsoft	51	48
1994	May 20-22	Paula Jones Lawsuit	50	40
1997	May 6-7	Clinton/Congress Budget Agreement	49	51
1997	Sep 25-28	Democratic Party's 1996 Fundraising Activities	49	50
2000	May 5-7	Use of the Confederate Flag in South Carolina	48	52
1995	Jul 7-9	Government Base-Closing Recommendations	47	53
1997	Sep 6-7	Latest Bombing in Jerusalem	46	52
1995	Nov 6-8	U.S. Apology for Army Rape in Japan	46	53
1999	Nov 4-7	Budget Negotiations Between Clinton and Congress	46	54
1998	Jun 5-7	Clinton-China Satellite Controversy	45	54
1993	Sep 10-12	NAFTA	44	56
2000	Feb 25-27	Who Wants to Marry a Multimillionaire	43	55
1992	Dec 28	Bush Pardon of Casper Weinberger	43	57
1997	Sep 6-7	Al Gore's 1996 Fundraising Activities	42	56
1998	Oct 9-12	Serbian Attacks on Kosovo	42	58
1998	Oct 9-12	Situation in Kosovo	42	58
1993	Aug 8-10	U.S.-Mexico Free Trade Agreement	42	58
1994	Nov 28-29	Consideration of GATT in Congress	41	59
1999	Oct 21-24	Budget Negotiations Between Clinton and Congress	41	59
1993	Nov 2-4	Ethics Investigation of Senator Packwood	40	59
1998	Mar 6-9	Federal Investigations Into Microsoft	38	60
1999	Sep 10-14	FALN-Puerto Rican Clemency Controversy	37	62
1999	Mar 19-21	Situation in Kosovo	36	63
1992	Dec 18-20	Clinton Economic Conference in Little Rock	35	65
1998	Jun 5-7	Clinton Race Initiative	34	65
1999	Feb 19-21	Situation in Kosovo	30	69
1999	Feb 8-9	Situation in Kosovo	30	69
2000	May 5-7	China and the World Trade Organization	29	70
1994	Feb 1-3	Vote in Japan for Political Reforms	22	78