GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- U.S. Census officials have been worried that Americans may be sitting on their census forms because of concerns over confidentiality or because they perceive the census as an invasion of privacy. These concerns have been exacerbated by the pronouncements of talk show hosts and some members of Congress who have themselves said negative things about the census, and who, tacitly at least, have signaled that it may be okay for people to fill them out only partially, or not at all.
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted this past weekend suggests that there are very few Americans who are refraining from filling out their forms for the reasons given above. Instead, the data suggest that practical reasons -- including not receiving the form to begin with, or simply forgetting to mail it back in -- may be the biggest culprit. Additionally, the results show that the groups least likely to have returned their census forms are those living in the South, those with lower incomes, nonwhites and Democrats -- along with young people. This suggests that the areas in which these groups live will have the most to lose in terms of federal representation and appropriations if the current response patterns persist.
Nine out of Ten Recall Having Received Form
Ninety-one percent of Americans interviewed in the weekend poll,
conducted April 7-9, recall having received the census form in the
mail. This number is almost exactly the same as the percentage who
recalled having received the form in the mail 10 years ago, in
April 1990.
Concerns Over Privacy and Confidentiality
A Gallup poll conducted in March showed that 50% of Americans did
not believe Census Bureau claims that the data collected from the
census would be confidential and not shared with other government
agencies. In this past weekend's poll, 18% of Americans say they
believe the census is an "invasion of their privacy."
Given these attitudes, one might suspect that a sizable number of the non-returns of census data would be based on objections to the type and use of the census data.
The poll data do not confirm this hypothesis.
About eight out of ten of those who recall having received the form claim to have sent it back in, for an overall percentage of 75% of the adult population reached in the poll who say they have both received the census form in the mail and sent it back in.
The Census Bureau early this week reported that its calculations showed 62% had returned their forms. The differences between the Census Bureau and Gallup Poll estimates may be due to a variety of factors. First, some of those reached in the poll may have mailed the form back in, but it may not have been received and/or tabulated yet by the Census Bureau. Second, poll respondents may be overreporting or misreporting their compliance. Third, the rate of return calculated by the Census Bureau is based on an estimate of total households that includes people who don't speak English, those without telephones and others who in one way or the other would not be represented in a typical Gallup Poll sample.
A summary of what poll respondents told interviewers about the disposition of their census forms is as follows:
| Returned census form already | 75% |
| Will return it | 13% |
| Object to form and don't plan to fill it out for that reason | 2% |
| Didn't get the census form in the mail | 9% |
The key finding in the chart above, represented in the third row, is that only 2% of Americans say they didn't fill out the form because they object to it. Thus, very few Americans are deliberately withholding their forms because of a philosophical objection. The more common reasons for nonresponse are very practical, centering on the fact that the person has forgotten to send it back it, or the claim that the person did not receive the form in the first place.
Democrats, Low-Income Households, Young People Least
Likely to Have Returned Form
There are differences in the return rate among various demographic
groups reflected in the weekend poll:
| • | Age |
| Young people between the ages of 18 and 29 are most likely not to have returned the form. Many of these young people claim never to have received it in the first place. Young people are more likely to be either living with their parents or living in college dorms, and thus less likely to be aware of the status of their household form (college students are supposed to fill it out at their current place of residence, not their home). Additionally, young people are more mobile and moving around makes it less likely the form has found them. Finally, of course, young people are less likely to participate in other civic activities such as voting, and it may be that young people are less likely to take these types of obligations seriously. | |
| • | Socioeconomic status |
| As the Census Bureau has found in past research, lower-income individuals are less likely to have returned the form than are those with higher levels of income. | |
| • | Race |
| Nonwhites are less likely than whites to report having returned their census data. | |
| • | Democrats |
| There is approximately a nine-point spread between Democrats and Republicans in terms of the rate of self-reported returns. Eighty percent of Republicans say they have returned the form, compared to 71% of Democrats. This potential disparity between the head count of those in the two parties has been one of the key focal points for political fighting over the census for years. Democrats have in general urged procedures to increase the head count, including the use of statistical sampling to adjust the return tally, while Republicans have opposed such efforts. In part, as these data show, the reasoning behind some of this infighting may be that the Democrats are eager to shore up the number of residents in highly Democratic areas (and hence to get greater political representation and greater federal distribution of money) while Republicans would prefer to keep the number of people counted in heavily Democratic areas as low as possible. |
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,006 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted April 7-9, 2000. For results based on samples of
this size, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
As far as you know, has your household received your official 2000 U.S. Census form from the government yet?
| Yes | No | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 Apr 7-9 | 91% | 7 | 2 |
Census records indicate that many Americans have not yet had the opportunity to return their census forms. Which one of the following statements applies to your household -- [ROTATED: you have not had the chance to fill out the form yet but, but you plan to (or) you have misplaced or lost the form (or) you object to the form and don't plan to fill it out (or) you have already filled out the form, but have not yet returned it (or) you have already filled out the form, and returned it]?
BASED ON -- 923 -- WHO HAVE RECEIVED CENSUS FORM; ± 3 PCT PTS
| Not had the chance to fill it out, but plan to | 7% |
| Misplaced or lost form | 1 |
| Object to form and don't plan to fill out | 2 |
| Filled out form but haven't returned it | 7 |
| Filled out form and returned it | 82 |
| OTHER (vol.) | * |
| No opinion | 1 |
Do you consider the census an invasion of your privacy, or not?
| Yes | No | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 Apr 7-9 | 18% | 80 | 2 |
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response