GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
London, UK - The deepest divisions in British politics at the moment are not between the Conservative and Labour parties, but between politicians and ordinary voters, Gallup's latest survey for The Telegraph reveals. Whichever party they intend to support, a large majority of voters have not found the present campaign edifying. Both Tony Blair and William Hague have spoken of "reconnecting" politics with the people. Neither has succeeded.
Gallup's latest findings reinforce the impression that turnout on June 7 is likely to be the lowest -- 1918 apart -- since the 19th century. Only 69 per cent will "definitely" vote -- a drop of two points since this point in the 1997 campaign when turnout was lower than at any time since the 1930s.
This disconnection between the electorate and politicians may account for the major parties' campaign's virtual lack of impact on voters. Among the two thirds of eligible electors whom Gallup reckons are the most likely to vote, 48 per cent still support Labour -- the same as last week -- and 32 per cent still support the Conservatives -- also the same as last week.
Only the Liberal Democrats have made modest progress, improving their position from 13 to 15 per cent, mainly at the expense of the nationalists and the minor parties. However, the new survey's most striking findings concern not the balance between the parties but voters' judgments of the campaign as a whole.
Most voters are not impressed. Interviewers asked the public if they agreed or disagreed with a list of seven "things people are saying about the election campaign." The pattern of responses could hardly be more damning.
Around three quarters think all politicians at the moment are dealing in slogans and soundbites and are quoting meaningless statistics. More than two thirds accuse most party leaders of making promises they cannot fulfill. The majority took exception to only one statement on the list -- "none of the parties looks like doing much for people like me." Fifty two per cent disagreed, believing that at least one of the parties has something to offer.
The fine details further show that, with only a few exceptions, voters' unhappiness with the campaign is pervasive. It embraces all age groups, social classes, regions and the supporters of all the parties. The few exceptions may be more helpful to Labour than to the Tories. For example, Labour supporters are considerably more likely than Tories to disagree that "the main parties are all 'much of a muchness' " and to dispute "none of the parties looks like doing much for people like me." In other words, more Labour voters than Tories see a difference between the parties and reckon it is to their advantage. Overall, the new survey, like its predecessors, suggests that although the Labour vote is soft, the Conservative vote is, if anything, even softer.
They survey provides more evidence along these lines. Voters were told "there are countries where the ballot paper has on it an option labelled 'None of the above'." They were asked which box they would tick if they were offered a choice between Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or 'None of the above'." The latter easily defeats the notional Liberal Democrat, and the hypothetical Tory is in a dead heat with the combined total of "don't know," "none of the above," and answer refusal. Only the Labour Party survives the test. In addition, the figures show that people who said, in response to the standard voting intention question, that they intend to vote for the Labour Party are fractionally more likely to stick to Labour than Conservatives are to stick to the Tories. Liberal Democrats are the most footloose of all and the most likely to opt for "none of the above." The depth of the Conservatives' difficulties is evident in all of Gallup's latest findings.
Mr Hague intends to focus on Europe during the next few days, but only five per cent of the public cites any issue connected with the European Union as being "the most urgent problem facing the country at the present time" (compared with 38 per cent who mention the NHS). Moreover, Labour is actually ahead of the Tories on Europe. Gallup asked which party could best handle each of nine major issues facing the country. As the figures make plain, Labour leads the Conservatives, sometimes by wide margins, on every issue except asylum seekers.
The truth seems to be that, while few voters are enamoured of the Blair Government, only a small minority positively want a change of government. During the 1997 campaign, Gallup asked the public how they would react to the idea of a Labour government, and in the latest survey how they would react to the idea of a Hague government. The figures show the bleak truth for the Tories. Four years ago, 29 per cent of voters said they would be "delighted" if a Labour government were elected. Today, a mere 15 per cent respond with the same enthusiasm to the idea of a Tory government. Similarly, whereas in 1997 only 20 per cent of voters said they would be "dismayed" if Labour under Tony Blair were elected, today more than twice that proportion, 42 per cent, say that they would be dismayed if the Tories under Mr Hague were to win.
The famous feel-good factor -- the difference between the proportion of people believing their household's financial situation will improve over the next 12 months and the proportion believing it will deteriorate -- stands at a healthy plus 12 per cent. Thus, it is hard to imagine what could bring a tepid electorate to the boil between now and June 7 -- and turn it against the present Government.
Anthony King is professor of government at Essex University, and is a political analyst and a special contributor for the Daily Telegraph. This article is re-printed by the Gallup Poll News Service with permission from the Daily Telegraph.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,439 respondents, aged 18+ from across Great Britain conducted May 21-23, 2001. Respondents who reported that they were not on the electoral register or definitely would not vote in the General Election on June 7 have been excluded.
Respondents who reported that they were not on the electoral register (7%) or definitely would not vote (5%) in the General Election on June 7 have been excluded. For results based on a sample of this size, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points.
