Americans Still Divided Over Possibility for Middle East Peace

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In the midst of stalled peace talks between Israel and Syria and renewed hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, Americans remain skeptical about the prospects for peace in the Middle East. In a Gallup poll conducted in late January, 49% of Americans think there will come a time when Israel and the Arab nations will be able to settle their differences and live in peace. However, roughly the same percentage (45%) think such a time will never come. These figures are comparable to last year's, although more Americans today think peace is a possibility in that region than did so in 1997-1998.

Perhaps one reason Americans are more likely to believe peace will come in the Middle East is that Bill Clinton has made brokering agreements between Israel and its neighbors a priority on his foreign policy agenda. While his attempt to facilitate an agreement between Syria and Israel has not achieved what he had hoped, he has had some success in prompting negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians -- including the 1998 Wye River accords between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Most Americans agree that such an effort by the U.S. to help broker a peaceful solution between Israel and the Palestinians is an important foreign policy goal (78% say it is "somewhat" or "very important"). However, the percentage saying such an agreement is "very important" has fallen in the past several months, to 32% from 41% last summer. This may simply reflect the fact that the issue is a lower priority among Americans in and of itself but may also indicate that Americans see it as a less critical need given the recent agreements reached by the Israelis and Palestinians. Those who identify themselves as Democrats are more inclined to say it is a "very important goal" than are self-identified Republicans (37% compared to 27%).

Americans Are More Sympathetic to Israel, but Want U.S. to Remain Neutral
When asked with which side of the conflict in the Middle East they sympathize, Americans are more likely to say Israel (43%) than the Palestinians (13%), though many express no opinion or no sympathies either way. Although Americans are three times more likely to be sympathetic to Israel than to the Palestinians, by an overwhelming majority they want the U.S. to remain neutral in the conflict. More than 7 of 10 Americans (72%) say the U.S. should not take either side. This view is held throughout the public, though conservatives are somewhat less likely to want the U.S. to remain neutral (66%) and more likely to want it to side with Israel (22% compared with 16% in the general population).

Overall, Americans view Israel much more favorably than they view either the Palestinian Authority or Syria. Fully 54% of the U.S. public expresses a favorable opinion of Israel. Only 21% hold a favorable view of the Palestinian Authority while just 20% view Syria favorably. In fact, a majority of Americans have unfavorable opinions about the Palestinian Authority (52%) and a near-majority (44%) have unfavorable opinions about Syria. It should be noted that significant proportions of Americans have neither a positive nor a negative opinion about Syria (36%) or the Palestinian Authority (27%).

Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews conducted January 25-26, 2000 with 1,044 adults 18 years and older. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Do you think there will or will not come a time when Israel and the Arab nations will be able to settle their differences and live in peace?

	Yes, will be a time	No, will not	No opinion
2000 Jan 25-26	49%	45	6
1999 Jul 22-25	49%	47	4
98 Dec 4-6	40%	56	4
97 Aug 12-13	36%	58	8

As far as you are concerned, how important a goal should the development of a peaceful solution to the Palestinian-Israeli situation in the Middle East be to the United States? Should it be a very important foreign policy goal of the United States, a somewhat important goal, not too important, or not an important goal at all?

	Very important	Somewhat important	Not too important	Not at all important	No opinion
2000 Jan 25-26	32%	46	12	6	4
2000 Jan 25-26	41%	41	9	6	3
1993 Sep 10-12	41%	36	11	8	4
1991 Mar	46%	41	6	5	2

In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies with the Israelis or more with the Palestinian Arabs?

	Israelis	Palestinian Arabs	BOTH	NEITHER	No opinion
2000 Jan 25-26	43%	13	5	21	18
1998 Dec 4-6	46%	13	5	22	14
1997 Aug 12-13	38%	8	5	19	30
1996 Nov 21-24	38%	15	6	14	27
1993 Sep 10-12	42%	15	6	17	20
1991 Feb	64%	7	19	--	10
1989 Aug	50%	14	15	--	21
1988 May 13-15	37%	15	22	--	27

In the Middle East conflict, do you think the United States should take Israel's side, take the Palestinian's side, or not take either side?

	Israel's side	Palestinian's side	Not take either	No opinion
2000 Jan 25-26	15%	1	72	12
1998 Dec 4-6	17%	2	73	7
1998 May 8-10	16%	2	74	9

Next, I'd like your overall opinion of some foreign countries or political entities. First, is your overall opinion of [ROTATE China; Israel; Syria; The Palestine Authority] very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?

Israel
	Very favor- able	Mostly favor- able	Mostly unfavor- able	Very unfavor- able	No opinion
2000 Jan 25-26	11%	43	21	7	18
1999 May 7-9	15%	53	19	6	7
1999 Feb 8-9	18%	48	16	7	11
1996 Mar 8-10	17%	45	18	11	9

Syria
	Very favor- able	Mostly favor- able	Mostly unfavor- able	Very unfavor- able	No opinion
2000 Jan 25-26	2%	18	32	12	36
1991 Aug 8-11	2%	22	37	15	25

The Palestinian Authority
	Very favor- able	Mostly favor- able	Mostly unfavor- able	Very unfavor- able	No opinion
2000 Jan 25-26	3%	18	36	16	27

(vol.) = volunteered response