GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The American public continues to show less and less concern about the potential impact of the Y2K computer problem as the new millennium approaches. A new Gallup poll conducted for the National Science Foundation andUSA Todayfinds a continuation in the trend of lessening concern over the last year.
Attention to the computer programming problem began to accelerate last March, and by this past August about two-thirds of Americans indicated that they had heard a great deal about the Year 2000 computer bug problem, a percentage that has stayed at about that level since then:
How much have you seen or heard about the Year 2000 computer bug problem, sometimes called the Millennium Bug or the Y-2-K bug, before now -- a great deal, some, not much, or nothing at all?
| A great deal | Some | Not much | Nothing | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Dec 16-19 |
67% | 21 | 8 | 4 | -- |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 |
70% | 20 | 6 | 4 | * |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 |
64% | 24 | 9 | 3 | * |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 |
56% | 30 | 11 | 3 | * |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 |
39% | 40 | 13 | 8 | * |
Concern over the impact of the problem had dropped significantly, even as attention to it has increased:
As you may know, most computer systems around the world have to be reprogrammed so that they can accurately recognize the date once we reach the Year 2000. Do you think that computer mistakes due to the Year-2000 issue will cause major problems, minor problems, or no problems at all?
| Major problems | Minor problems | No problems at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Dec 16-19 |
7% | 70 | 21 | 2 |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 |
12% | 71 | 14 | 3 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 |
11% | 71 | 15 | 3 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 |
21% | 65 | 12 | 2 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 |
34% | 51 | 10 | 5 |
Do you think that computer mistakes due to the Year-2000 issue will cause major problems, minor problems or no problems at all for you personally?
| Major problems | Minor problems | No problems at all | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Dec 16-19 |
3% | 44 | 52 | 1 |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 |
3% | 50 | 45 | 2 |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 |
7% | 52 | 40 | 1 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 |
9% | 56 | 32 | 3 |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 |
14% | 53 | 30 | 3 |
As can be seen, concern that the Y2K situation will cause major problems has dropped from 34% last year at this time to only 7% today. Most Americans think that there will be minor problems, with 21% saying that there will be no problems at all.
Americans have always been less concerned about the impact of Y2K on themselves personally, and that trend continues. In this most recent poll, only 3% say it will be a major problem in their own life, while a majority, 52% now say that Y2K will cause no problems at all in their personal life. This can be contrasted with 30% who indicated last year that Y2K would cause them no problems personally.
In similar fashion, the percentage of those who express personal concern about the problem has dropped. While 56% last December said they were at least somewhat concerned, that number has now dropped to only 29%. The clear majority of the public -- interviewed with just two weeks to go before the start of the new year -- is now either not too concerned or not concerned at all.
Overall, how concerned are you about the Y2K computer bug problem - very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned?
| Very concerned | Somewhat concerned | Not too concerned | Not at all concerned | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Dec 16-19 |
4% | 25 | 46 | 24 | 1 |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 |
-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 |
6% | 30 | 45 | 19 | * |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 |
-- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 |
16% | 40 | 31 | 13 | * |
What is it that Americans are going to do to deal with the Y2K problem? The survey gets at the answer to this question in two ways.
First, half of the sample of Americans was asked to indicate in their own words, without suggestions or prompting, what steps they either had taken or were planning on taking to deal with the issue:
Do you or your household plan to take any steps to prepare or protect yourself from problems that might result from the Y2K computer problem? IF YES: What specific actions or precautions are you planning to take as January 1, 2000 approaches? [OPEN-ENDED]
BASED ON - 505 - ASKED FORM A; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Dec 9-13, 1998 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | Nov 18-21, 1999 | Dec 16-19, 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stocking up on food | -- | 22% | 21% | 23% | 20% |
| Stocking up on water | -- | 12 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
| Stocking up on household supplies (candles, radio, firewood, etc.) | -- | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 |
| Having more cash on hand | -- | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Purchase a generator/heater | -- | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| Stocking up on gasoline | -- | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Updating computer | -- | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Withdrawing cash from various accounts | -- | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Keeping better financial records/closer monitoring | -- | 9 | 8 | 7 | 3 |
| No air travel | -- | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Making sure everything is Y2K compliant | -- | 1 | * | * | 1 |
| Saving more money | -- | 2 | 1 | * | * |
| Other (miscellaneous) | -- | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| No, do not plan to take any steps | -- | 44 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| No opinion | -- | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Total: | 139% | 142% | 144% | 142% | |
* Note: Due to multiple mentions (up to five were allowed), totals add to more than 100%
As can be seen here, about half of those interviewed could not name anything they plan on doing. The top two steps have been, and continue to be, stocking up on food and water, followed by stocking up on other supplies, and then getting more cash on hand. The biggest change over time has been the slight increase in the percentage who say they will be stockpiling water and other household supplies.
The other half of the sample was asked to respond to a specific list of 8 items and for each to indicate whether each item was something they either had done already or planned on doing. The responses to these prompted questions reflect higher percentages than do the corresponding responses given to the unprompted question.
Y2K PREPARATION SUMMARY
| Dec 9-13, 1998 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | Nov 18-21, 1999 | Dec 16-19, 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | |
| Fill gas tank in your car/truck | -- | -- | -- | -- | 75 |
| Avoid travelling on airplanes | 47 | 54 | 43 | 55 | 51 |
| Obtain bank confirmation | 65 | 66 | 51 | 58 | 48 |
| Stockpile food and water | 26 | 39 | 36 | 40 | 42 |
| Stock up on gasoline | -- | -- | 21 | 28 | 21 |
| Withdraw large amount of cash | 31 | 30 | 25 | 25 | 21 |
| Buy generator/wood stove | 17 | 24 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| Withdraw all money from bank | 16 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 6 |
The trends here are quite interesting:
- The percentage of Americans who say they will avoid traveling on airplanes has stayed about the same over the past year
- Interest in withdrawing large amounts of cash or in obtaining bank confirmation has dropped
- Intentions to stockpile food and water, on the other hand, has actually gone up as the year has progressed, from 26% who said they would last December, to 42% today
There is now very little concern that Y2K will cause serious economic damage to the country:
Thinking about the U.S. economy, which of the following statements best describes the possible effect you think the Y2K bug will have on the economy -- [It will cause a total economic breakdown or catastrophe, it will cause serious problems in the economy such as slowing production or creating a recession, it will cause only minor problems in the economy, or it will have no negative impact on the economy]?
| Economic breakdown/ catastrophe | Serious problems | Only minor problems | No negative impact on the economy | Other/ No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Dec 16-19 | 1% | 8 | 60 | 30 | 1 |
| 1999 Nov 18-21 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1999 Aug 25-29 | 2% | 13 | 63 | 20 | 2 |
| 1999 Mar 5-7 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 1998 Dec 9-13 | 4% | 25 | 55 | 14 | 2 |
The vast majority of Americans are now convinced that the Y2K problem will have either a minor effect or no negative impact at all on the U.S. economy.
Still, even if there is only a small perception that there will be serious economic problems as a result of Y2K, there are somewhat higher levels of concern expressed when Americans are asked about the likelihood of specific events occurring:
Y2K OUTLOOK SUMMARY
| Dec 9-13, 1998 | Mar 5-7, 1999 | Aug 25-29, 1999 | Nov 18-21, 1999 | Dec 16-19, 1999 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | |
| Banking/accounting will fail | 63 | 55 | 48 | 38 | 34 |
| Air traffic control will fail | 46 | 43 | 35 | 34 | 27 |
| Food/retail distribution will fail | 37 | 40 | 35 | 32 | 25 |
| Emergency/ "911" will fail | 36 | 32 | 27 | 28 | 22 |
| Hospital equipment/services will fail | 33 | 32 | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| Nuclear power/defense systems will fail | 30 | 27 | 18 | 19 | 15 |
| Passenger cars/trucks will fail | 17 | -- | 12 | 13 | 12 |
* = Less than 0.5%
As can be seen, a small but still not insignificant number of Americans say they feel it is likely that banking systems will fail, that air traffic control systems will fail, that food and retail distribution system will fail, that emergency/"911" will fail, and that hospital services will fail. In all of these instances, the percentages who feel this way today are down from previous measurements. The least amount of concern expressed is for failures in nuclear power and passenger cars and trucks.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,010 national adults, 18 years and
older, conducted December 16-19, 1999. For results based on this
sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum
error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or
minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.