GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The plight of 6-year old Elian Gonzalez has captured the attention of the American public. Almost two-thirds of Americans say they are following the story of the Cuban boy somewhat or very closely, a relatively high number for a news story of this type.
What should be done? Should Elian be sent back to Cuba to be with his father, or should he stay in the United States with relatives? The American public splits right down the middle on the issue, with 45% of those interviewed in the Dec. 9-12 Gallup poll saying that he should be returned, and 45% saying that he should remain in the U.S. Unlike many issues that confront the public, there are relatively few differences in sentiment on the Cuban boy by partisanship: 49% of Republicans, 33% of independents and 44% of Democrats say that he should go back to Cuba.
An Attention Grabber
Two-thirds of Americans indicate they have closely followed the
news about young Elian Gonzalez, including 23% who have followed it
"very closely" and 45% "somewhat closely." Another 18% say they
have followed it "not too closely" while just 13% have not followed
the story at all.
Public attention to the boy's situation ranks above average compared with other news events this decade. Among the over 50 different news stories Gallup has rated since 1991, the 1997 death of Princess Diana -- closely followed by 85% of Americans -- ranks highest. The 1994 popular vote in Japan for political reforms ranks lowest, with only 22% paying close attention. At 68%, the close attention paid to the Cuban boy story puts it above the average rating of 56%, on par with public attention to the NAFTA trade issue in 1993, the death of Mother Teresa in 1997 and, coincidentally, the shooting down of two civilian airplanes by Cuba in 1996.
Men More Likely to Favor His Return to Cuba
Those that are following the Cuban boy's story very closely do not
differ greatly from others in their feelings about what should
happen. Forty-eight percent of this attentive group say that Elian
should be returned, while 44% say that he should stay. There is,
however, one interesting difference evident in the poll. Men are
somewhat more likely to say that Elian should be returned, by a 52%
to 39% margin, while women prefer that he stay in the U.S., by a
51% to 39% margin. (The most logical explanation for this finding
is that men relate to the boy's Cuban father, whose efforts to see
the boy returned have been widely publicized.) Americans with
higher levels of education are also somewhat more likely to favor
Elian returning to Cuba. There are very few differences in
sentiment about Elian by region; those in the South (which includes
Florida, where he is currently living) express views similar to the
views of those in the East, West and Midwest on the issue of his
return.
The entire incident may ultimately have diplomatic repercussions. The U.S. and Cuba currently do not have diplomatic relations, but recent Gallup polling suggests that the public is ready for this situation to change. While only 40% said that diplomatic relations should be resumed in a 1996 poll, earlier this year a Gallup poll found that 69% said that relations should be resumed. Time will tell, of course, whether or not the current situation will affect the probability that the U.S. and Cuba will start up a more normal diplomatic and trade relationship.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,037 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted December 9-12, 1999. For results based on this sample,
one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
As you may know, a 6-year-old Cuban boy recently found off the Florida coast is the only survivor of a group of people, including his mother, who were escaping Cuba for the United States by raft. He is now in Florida where his custody is being disputed. How closely have you followed the news about this story?
| Very closely | 23% |
| Somewhat closely | 45 |
| Not too closely, or | 18 |
| Not at all | 13 |
| No opinion | 1 |
| 100% |
Which of the following solutions do you think would be in the best interests of the boy: for him to remain in the U.S. to live with relatives who have requested he stay here (or) for him to live with his father in Cuba, as his father has requested? [ROTATED]
| Remain in the U.S. | 45% |
| Live with his father in Cuba | 45 |
| OTHER (vol.) | 3 |
| No opinion | 7 |
| 100% |
(vol.) = volunteered response