GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- President Clinton and the Republicans in Congress continue to do battle over the provisions of the remaining spending bills which will be necessary to approve in order to complete the Federal budget process for this year. The government continues to operate, despite the fact that the new fiscal year began October 1, thanks to stopgap continuing resolutions. However, the threat of a government shutdown still hangs over the proceedings if the budget cannot be resolved. Here are the major questions and answers about the budget process, based on recent Gallup polling.
Are Americans paying close attention as Congress and the
President attempt to settle on a budget for the fiscal year that
has already begun?
No. Only 41% say they are following the "news about the budget
negotiations between President Clinton and Congress" very or
somewhat closely. This is below the 49% that were following the
Congress and Clinton budget agreement in May 1997 closely, and far
below the attention being paid to such news stories as NAFTA in
1993, or the Clinton health care plan announced in 1993. (In
contrast, the highest "closely following" measure of the decade, of
those stories measured, was the death of Princess Diana, which was
followed closely by 85% of those interviewed.)
Are Americans optimistic that they will like the final
form of this year's budget?
While Americans are not wildly positive about the outcome of the
budget process this year, they are now more optimistic than they
were a month ago. In a September 23-26 poll, only 35% said that
they were either very or somewhat confident that the Congress and
the President would pass a budget that they would personally
approve. Now, in the most recent October 21-24 poll, that number
has risen to 46%.
Who is most likely to think that the eventual outcome will
be a budget they like: Republicans or Democrats?
Perhaps surprisingly, it is Democrats who are more optimistic about
the budget process this year. Only 39% of Republicans say that they
are confident that a budget they personally approve of will be
passed, compared to 59% of Democrats. This may be the result of the
fact that Clinton's veto power has stymied previous Republican
budget plans.
As in 1995, it appears that this budget is coming down to
a head-to-head battle between President Clinton and the Republicans
in Congress. Who's winning?
President Clinton continues to own a perceptual edge over the
Republicans in Congress on budget-related issues. When asked whose
approach they prefer in dealing "with the tough choices involved in
deciding on the federal budget for next year," 50% of respondents
in last weekend's poll said President Clinton, compared to 35% who
said the Republicans in Congress. Although Clinton's advantage is
slightly lower than in previous polls, in the most general sense he
has won on this type of budget question every time it has been
asked since December 1995. In July 1995, the Republicans in
Congress won by a 48% to 42% margin on this question. The December
1995 poll was taken in the middle of a government shutdown, caused
by the inability of Congress and Clinton to agree on a budget. It
is widely assumed that Clinton won that showdown, and that it
became a primary factor in his successful reelection over Bob Dole
in 1996.
Both sides have agreed that they will not dip into the
Social Security surplus, but Clinton seems to be urging increased
taxes, while Republicans have proposed an across-the-board tax cut.
What does the public think?
In the most recent poll, Americans were asked if they favored or
opposed each of these three different approaches to balancing the
budget. It is clear that no one likes the idea of spending surplus
Social Security funds, and only 16% of the public favor this
alternative. Instead, the Republican plan -- cutting government
programs and agency spending -- generates the most support from the
public, with 55% supporting the idea, compared to 39% who oppose
it. Only 43% of Americans say they favor the idea of increasing
taxes and user fees, including an increase in the cigarette tax,
while 55% oppose it.
In short: Clinton wins over the Republicans in Congress when the public is asked whose approach they favor in a general sense. However, the Republicans' plan to cut government spending wins the most support of the three specific options tested, particularly when compared to the idea of tax and user fee increases.
Do Republicans and Democrats differ in favoring these
options?
The biggest difference comes on the spending cut idea, which is
favored by 66% of Republicans but only 47% of Democrats. The
differences by party in support for the other two ideas are much
less pronounced.
Everyone seems to agree that dipping into the Social
Security surplus is not a good idea. Who does the public trust more
to protect Social Security funds -- Clinton or the
Republicans?
Clinton gets the nod here. Fifty percent of the public favors
Clinton's approach to acting responsibly with government funds set
aside for Social Security benefits, compared to 38% who have more
trust in the Republicans in Congress.
By the way, Bill Clinton now has only about 13 more months
in office before a new president is inaugurated. How is his job
approval rating holding up?
Clinton has a 59% job approval rating in Gallup's most recent poll,
above the average for his administration and above the average for
all other presidents since Harry S. Truman.
Survey Methods
The results reported here are based on telephone interviews with a
randomly selected national sample of 1,005 adults, 18 years and
older, conducted October 21-24, 1999. For results based on this
sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum
error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or
minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
When it comes to dealing with the tough choices involved in deciding on the federal budget for next year, whose approach do you prefer -- [ROTATE: The Republicans' in Congress or President Clinton's]?
BASED ON -- 493 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM A; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Republicans' | President Clinton's | NEITHER (vol.) | BOTH (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Oct 21-24 | 35% | 50 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 1999 Oct 8-10 | 38% | 55 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 1999 Sep 10-14(*) | 38% | 53 | 4 | * | 5 |
| 1999 Aug 16-18(*) | 36% | 53 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 1999 Jul 16-18(*) | 40% | 48 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 1998 Jan 6-7(©) | 39% | 43 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 1997 Jul 25-27(©) | 38% | 49 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| 1995 Dec 15-18(©) | 38% | 52 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| 1995 Jul 7-9(©) | 48% | 42 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
(*) JUL-SEP 1999 WORDING: When it comes to dealing with the
tough choices involved BOTH in cutting taxes AND still maintaining
needed federal programs, whose approach do you prefer...
(©) 1995-1998 WORDING: When it comes to dealing with the tough
choices involved BOTH in cutting programs to reduce the budget
deficit AND still maintaining needed federal programs, whose
approach do you prefer: the Republicans' in Congress or President
Clinton's?
As you may know, President Clinton and the Republicans in Congress are trying to negotiate an agreement on the federal budget. Based on what you've read or heard about those negotiations -- who do you think has acted more responsibly -- [ROTATE 1-2: The Republicans in Congress or President Clinton]?
BASED ON -- 512 -- NATIONAL ADULTS ASKED FORM B; ± 5 PCT PTS
| Clinton | Republicans in Congress | NEITHER (vol.) | BOTH (vol.) | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 Oct 21-24 | 43% | 37 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
| 1999 Oct 8-10 | 48% | 36 | 6 | * | 10 |
| 1996 Feb 23-25(o) | 44% | 35 | 13 | 2 | 6 |
| 1996 Jan 12-15(o) | 45% | 38 | 12 | 1 | 4 |
| 1996 Jan 5-7(o) | 38% | 37 | 14 | 3 | 8 |
| 1995 Dec 15-18(©) | 48% | 34 | 10 | 2 | 6 |
(o) 1996 WORDING: Now, thinking about the budget conflict which
has been going on in Washington, who do you think has acted more
responsibly in the negotiations over the budget -- President
Clinton or the Republican leaders in Congress?
(©) 1995 WORDING: As you know, President Clinton and
Republicans in Congress are trying to negotiate an agreement on how
to balance the federal budget in seven years. Based on what you've
read or heard about those negotiations -- Who do you think has
acted more responsibly in the negotiations over the budget?
Who do you trust more to act responsibly with the government funds set aside for Social Security benefits -- [ROTATE 1-2: The Republicans in Congress or President Clinton]?
| Oct 8-10 1999 |
Oct 21-24 1999 |
|
|---|---|---|
| The Republicans in Congress | 41% | 38% |
| President Clinton | 50 | 50 |
| NEITHER (vol.) | 6 | 8 |
| BOTH (vol.) | * | 1 |
| No opinion | 3 | 3 |
| 100% | 100% |
As you may know, the federal government's fiscal year has ended, and so far Congress has not passed the budget for the new fiscal year. How closely have you followed the news about the budget negotiations between President Clinton and Congress -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?
| Very closely | 8% |
| Somewhat closely | 33 |
| Not too closely | 37 |
| Not at all | 22 |
| No opinion | * |
| 100% |
How confident are you that Congress and the President will pass a budget that you, personally, approve of -- very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
| Sep 23-26 1999 |
Oct 21-24 1999 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Very confident | 5% | 4% |
| Somewhat confident | 30 | 42 |
| Not too confident | 36 | 39 |
| Not at all confident | 27 | 13 |
| No opinion | 2 | 2 |
| 100% | 100% |
