Public Opinion and the Levy Case: An Update

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ – Washington intern Chandra Levy was last seen on April 30, and media coverage of her baffling disappearance and the possible involvement of California Congressman Gary Condit continues unabated. A new Gallup poll updates public opinion on the case and finds that:

• More than six out of 10 Americans continue to follow the case at least somewhat closely, with little sign that interest is diminishing. The news story continues to rank as one of the most interesting of the year to the public, but it has not yet moved into the ranks of the news stories that have generated the most interest during the past decade.
• Older Americans, those with higher incomes, those living in California, and women are most likely to be following the case closely.
• There is very little difference between Republicans and Democrats in their interest in the case.
• A bare majority of Americans hold out hope that the case will be solved.
• While a majority of Americans still think that it is at least somewhat likely that California Congressman Gary Condit is involved, there has been a slight drop in those sentiments over the past week and a half.

How Closely Are Americans Following the Case?

More than six out of 10 Americans continue to say they are following the Chandra Levy case at least somewhat closely.

How closely have you been following the news concerning the investigation into the disappearance of Chandra Levy -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

There has been very little change between these two measurement periods. About one out of five Americans are following the case very closely, and another four out of 10 or so are following it somewhat closely.

Where does that put the case in the context of other news stories that have been tracked in the Gallup poll this year? As shown below in the list for 2001, the Chandra Levy story is slightly behind the Ford-Firestone dispute and the Andrea Yates story in terms of overall interest.

How closely have you been following the news concerning ________ -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

Date	News Event	% Very/Somewhat closely
June 28-July 1, 2001	Andrea Yates, the Houston woman accused of murdering her five children	68%
June 28 - July 1, 2001	Ford-Firestone dispute	65
July 19-22, 2001	Disappearance of Chandra Levy	62
February 1-4, 2001	Clinton's pardons in last week in office	62
February 1-4, 2001	Bush's faith-based initiative	60
February 19-21, 2001	Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich	60
May 7-9, 2001	McVeigh execution	59
March 9-11, 2001	Campaign finance debate	49
June 28 - July 1, 2001	Bush energy plan	46
June 28 - July 1, 2001	Justice Department lawsuit against Microsoft	39
July 10-11, 2001	Stem-cell research	38
June 28- July 1 2001	Patient's bill of rights	36

Most of this year's political news, including issues such as the Bush energy plan, the controversy over stem-cell research, and the patient's bill of rights, has been paid less attention by the public. Even the execution of Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh, one of the stories that received more attention in the press than any other this year, did not generate any more interest among the American public than did the Levy story.

In the broader context of all stories Gallup has tracked using this "closely followed" measure over the years, the story ranks about in the middle. The high point since 1991 has been the election recount controversy last fall, followed closely by 87% of the public. The low point has been the news surrounding the highly rated CBS television show "Survivor" last summer, closely followed by only 17% of those interviewed. Other stories followed closely by significantly more Americans than the Levy case include the sudden, accidental deaths of the prominent personalities Princess Dianna and John F. Kennedy Jr. and news about major wars or international interventions such as the Persian Gulf conflict in 1991. Additionally, the plight of the Cuban boy Elian Gonzalez last year generated more interest than the Levy case has so far. The murder of JonBenet Ramsey in 1997, however, was followed closely by fewer Americans than is the Levy case.

Who Is Paying the Most Attention?

For whom does the Levy case hold the greatest interest? We combined the results of our most recent two Gallup polls in which we asked Americans how closely they were following the case, and looked at the interest levels displayed by various demographic and geographic subgroups. Here are the results, rank ordered by percent closely following:

How Closely Following the Disappearance of Chandra Levy
Summary Table

2001 July (Combined Samples: July 10-11 and July 19-22)	Very/Somewhat closely
	%
Post-graduate	76
50- to 64-year-olds	76
$75,000 and greater	75
California resident	74
65 years and older	71
College graduate only	70
Democrat	67
Women	66
Conservative	66
Republican	65
Midwest	65
$50,000-$75,000	64
West	63
Some college	63
Moderate	63
White	62
Overall [or General Public]	62
Non-white	62
South	61
Non-California Resident	61
East	61
$30,000-$50,000	61
Men	59
Black	59
30- to 49-year-olds	59
Liberal	58
High school or less	56
$20,000-$30,000	56
Less than $20,000	55
Independent	55
18- to 29-year-olds	49

As can be seen, those Americans who are most closely following the case tend to be:

• Older
• Upscale
• Living in California

Additionally, women are following the case somewhat more closely than are men. Despite the fact that Levy herself is in her twenties, Americans 18 to 29 years of age are the least likely to say they are following the case closely -- substantially below every other subgroup measured.

Condit is a Democrat, but there is very little difference in the level of interest expressed by Republicans and Democrats nationwide.

Gary Condit's Possible Involvement

Part of the reason that the missing person case involving Chandra Levy has grabbed Americans' attention has been the focus on U.S. Representative Gary Condit of the 18^th Congressional District in California, and speculation about the nature of his relationship with Levy and his possible involvement in her disappearance. As shown below, about a quarter of Americans think that it is very likely that Condit was involved, while another 40% say somewhat likely.

How likely do you think it is that Gary Condit was directly involved in the disappearance of Chandra Levy -- very

likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?

 

	Very  likely	Somewhat likely	Not too likely	Not at all likely	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2001 Jul 19-22	24	40	16	10	10
2001 Jul 10-11	28	37	13	7	15

There has been a slight change between the two survey periods in the responses to this question. The percentage of Americans saying that it is very likely that Condit was directly involved is down slightly, and the percentage saying that it is not likely that he was involved is up. Still, the change involved between the two surveys is slight – 4% points lower on the "very likely" scale point, and 6% points higher on the combined "not too" and "not at all" likely scale points, and in both surveys the percentage of the public saying it is at least somewhat likely Condit was involved remained higher than 60%.

A CBS news poll conducted among 566 residents of Condit's 18^th Congressional District in California on July 16-17 showed that the controversy was taking an apparent toll on Condit's political future. While only 33% of those interviewed in the poll said Condit should resign now, just 24% said they would vote to re-elect him, while 53% said they would not. Although a great deal can happen between now and November 2002, of course, these findings do not augur well for Condit's political future.

Will the Case Ever Be Solved?

There has been almost no change in the feelings on the part of Americans about the probability that this case will ever be solved. In mid-July, 51% of Americans said they felt the case would be solved, and the exact same number said so in the July 19-22 poll. Thirty-eight percent now say the case will never be solved, with the rest unsure.

Do you think the case involving the disappearance of Chandra Levy will ever be solved, or not?

 

	Yes, will be solved	No, will not	No opinion
	%	%	%
2001 Jul 19-22	51	38	11
2001 Jul 10-11	51	35	14

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,039 adults, 18 years and older, conducted July 19-22, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.