GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Many governments, including that of the United States, favor the creation of an independent Palestinian state as a major step toward settling the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians. Recently, however, the Israeli ruling party voted against the creation of a Palestinian state, despite the objections of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. A new Gallup poll finds that about half of Americans favor the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Americans' views of Sharon and Palestinian Leader Yasser Arafat have grown more negative in recent months as the violence between the sides has continued. The violence has not affected Americans' sympathies in the conflict, however, as Americans continue to express more sympathy for the Israelis than for the Palestinians.
According to the poll, conducted May 20-22, 48% of Americans favor the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, while 27% are opposed and 25% do not have an opinion. The results are similar whether or not respondents are reminded that the state would be created on territory currently occupied by Israel -- 48% favor a Palestinian state when this information is mentioned and 47% favor it when the information is not mentioned.
Support is higher than when the question was last asked, in July 2000, at which point 39% were in favor, although it is somewhat lower than in May 1999.
| Establish a Palestinian State? |
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Gallup polling throughout the last decade has shown that attitudes toward the Middle East conflict are strongly influenced by one's partisanship, with Republicans much more likely to support Israel than are Democrats and independents. However, partisanship appears to matter less on the issue of a Palestinian state. While Republicans are more likely to oppose a Palestinian state than are independents and Democrats, the percentages in favor are similar, as 42% of Republicans and 44% of Democrats favor a new state for the Palestinians. Support is highest among independents, at 55%.
| Establish a Palestinian State? By Party |
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Differences by education are also evident. A majority of those with college degrees support the creation of a Palestinian state, including two-thirds of those with postgraduate educations. By contrast, only four in 10 Americans with high school educations or less believe the Palestinians should be allowed to form a new nation.
| Establish a Palestinian State? By Education Level |
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Opinions of Middle East Leaders Declining
The new poll shows that Americans' views of Israeli Prime Minister Sharon and Palestinian Leader Arafat are growing more negative. Currently, both leaders are viewed more negatively than positively, with Americans much more critical of Arafat (7% favorable rating) than of Sharon (32% favorable rating). When last measured, in February, Arafat had a 17% and Sharon a 45% favorable rating. In fact, the new data show a reversal in opinion on Sharon, with more Americans now evaluating him negatively than positively.
| Opinion of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon |
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| Opinion of Palestinian Leader Yasser Arafat |
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Not surprisingly, Republicans view Sharon more favorably than do other groups, and actually have a net positive view of him (43% favorable and 28% unfavorable). In contrast, both Democrats (25% favorable, 42% unfavorable) and independents (28% favorable, 42% unfavorable) have a net negative view of the prime minister.
Americans Continue to Sympathize With Israel
While views of the two sides' leaders have become more negative, Americans still show much more sympathy toward the Israelis than toward the Palestinians. The latest poll shows 49% expressing sympathy with the Israelis, 15% with the Palestinians, and 36% with neither side. While the actual percentages sympathizing with the Israelis have varied somewhat in the last few months, the ratio has been at least three to one in favor of the Israelis, about where it has been for the past decade.
| Middle East Sympathies Trend |
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Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,002 adults, 18 years and older, conducted May 20-22, 2002. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him. How about --
Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon
|
|
|
Never |
No |
|
|
2002 May 20-22 |
32% |
37 |
10 |
21 |
|
2002 Feb 4-6 |
45% |
31 |
11 |
13 |
Palestinian Leader, Yasser Arafat
|
|
|
Never |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2002 May 20-22 |
7 |
80 |
3 |
10 |
|
2002 Feb 4-6 |
17 |
73 |
3 |
7 |
|
2000 Oct 25-28 |
12 |
64 |
6 |
18 |
|
2000 Jul 6-9 |
27 |
45 |
8 |
20 |
|
1999 May 7-9 |
26 |
44 |
6 |
24 |
|
1998 Dec 28-29 |
35 |
45 |
5 |
15 |
|
1998 Dec 4-6 |
24 |
47 |
9 |
20 |
|
1994 Jan 6-8^ |
23 |
52 |
8 |
17 |
|
^ Asked as "P.L.O. Chairman" |
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Next, we'd like to ask you some questions about the Middle East. First,
In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?
|
|
|
|
NEITHER |
No |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
|
2002 May 20-22 |
49 |
15 |
7 |
19 |
10 |
|
|
2002 Apr 22-24 |
47 |
13 |
9 |
18 |
13 |
|
|
2002 Apr 5-7 |
50 |
15 |
9 |
17 |
9 |
|
|
2002 Mar 8-9 |
43 |
14 |
6 |
20 |
17 |
|
|
2002 Feb 4-6 |
55 |
14 |
6 |
14 |
11 |
|
|
2001 Dec 14-16 |
51 |
14 |
5 |
17 |
13 |
|
|
2001 Sep 14-15 |
55 |
7 |
4 |
20 |
14 |
|
|
2001 Aug 10-12 |
41 |
13 |
7 |
18 |
21 |
|
|
2001 Feb 1-4 |
51 |
16 |
7 |
14 |
12 |
|
|
2000 Oct 13-14 ^ |
41 |
11 |
9 |
18 |
21 |
|
|
2000 Jul 6-9 |
41 |
14 |
5 |
18 |
22 |
|
|
2000 Jan 25-26 |
43 |
13 |
5 |
21 |
18 |
|
|
1999 Jul 22-25 |
43 |
12 |
11 |
19 |
15 |
|
|
1998 Dec 4-6 |
46 |
13 |
5 |
22 |
14 |
|
|
1997 Aug 12-13 |
38 |
8 |
5 |
19 |
30 |
|
|
1996 Nov 21-24 |
38 |
15 |
6 |
14 |
27 |
|
|
1993 Sep 10-12 |
42 |
15 |
6 |
17 |
20 |
|
|
1991 Feb |
64 |
7 |
19 |
-- |
10 |
|
|
1989 Aug |
50 |
14 |
15 |
-- |
21 |
|
|
1988 May 13-15 |
37 |
15 |
22 |
-- |
27 |
|
|
^ |
Based on interviews with 821 national adults; +/- 4 pct. pts. |
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|
MAY 1988-APRIL l, 2002 WORDING: In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinian Arabs? |
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|
(vol.) |
Volunteered response |
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Do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?
BASED ON -- 488 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2002 May 20-22 |
48 |
27 |
25 |
|
2000 Jul 6-9 |
40 |
24 |
36 |
|
1999 May 7-9 |
53 |
26 |
21 |
|
1998^ |
36 |
26 |
38 |
|
1994^ |
39 |
20 |
41 |
|
^ Gallup/Chicago Council on Foreign Relations |
|||
Do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, territory currently occupied by Israel?
BASED ON -- 514 -- NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2002 May 20-22 |
47 |
28 |
25 |
|
2000 Jul 6-9 |
38 |
29 |
33 |
|
1999 May 7-9 |
52 |
28 |
20 |
COMBINED RESPONSES
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2002 May 20-22 |
48 |
27 |
25 |
|
2000 Jul 6-9 |
39 |
26 |
35 |
|
1999 May 7-9 |
52 |
27 |
21 |
