Americans Distrust Iraq but Favor Giving U.N. Inspectors More Time

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted just days before today's progress report by the United Nations chief weapons inspector in Iraq, shows public support for an invasion of Iraq is lower than it has been since talk of military action began last summer. The poll also shows that most Americans' opinions on this matter are not firmly held. The public widely believes that Iraq is not complying with U.N. requirements -- a belief that runs contrary to what some expect chief weapons inspector Hans Blix to report today -- and that military action is needed in addition to weapons inspections to eliminate the Iraqi threat. Nevertheless, most Americans would give the U.N. inspectors more time to complete their inspections and believe the United States should not invade unless the United Nations authorizes that action or unless European allies give their support to an invasion. Americans are currently divided as to whether they trust the Bush administration or the United Nations more to make the right decisions regarding Iraq.

Bare Majority Supports U.S. Invasion of Iraq

Fifty-two percent of Americans favor the United States' invading Iraq with ground troops in an attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power, while 43% are opposed, according to the poll, conducted Jan. 23-25. This represents a slight decline from polling over the past four months that has shown support for an invasion consistently in the mid-to-high 50s. Not once since the possibility of military action against Iraq became an issue last summer has public support been as low as 52%.

Favor/Oppose U.S. Invading Iraq With Ground Troops in Order to Remove Saddam Hussein From Power

Despite the public's general inclination to support an invasion of Iraq, the new poll confirms what has been evident since the beginning of this debate: public support for attacking Iraq is dependent on the particulars of the issue. Specifically, about half of Americans say their views on an invasion of Iraq could be affected by the outcome of the U.N. inspections. Thirty-one percent say they favor an invasion regardless of the outcome of the inspections, and 14% oppose an invasion no matter what the inspections reveal. That leaves 55% of Americans who still have not made up their minds on Iraq, including 21% who provisionally favor an invasion, 29% who provisionally oppose it, and 5% who have no opinion either way.

Views on Invasion of Iraq

Jan. 23-25, 2003

The softness of Americans' views is further revealed when respondents are asked what their opinion would be if President Bush decided to invade Iraq. More than seven in 10 (72%) say they would support the president's decision to invade Iraq -- including 45% who currently favor an invasion and 27% who are currently opposed. (These results are consistent with the general "rally effect" in presidential approval ratings seen following international crises involving the United States.)

Americans Apparently in No Rush to Invade Iraq

Blix will most likely say the inspectors need more time in Iraq to complete their search for evidence to suggest Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, but also to allow Iraq to show proof that any weapons it had in the past were destroyed. A majority of Americans, 56%, think the inspectors should be given more time to complete their inspections, "even if that means a United States invasion of Iraq is delayed or prevented altogether." Forty-one percent take the view that "Iraq has already had enough time to prove to the United Nations inspectors that it does not have weapons of mass destruction." Of those who say the inspectors should be given more time, 63% say they should be given as much time as needed, while 36% say a deadline should be set.

Should U.N. Inspectors Be Given More Time?

Jan. 23-25, 2003

Most Americans also believe that the United States should not invade Iraq unless a new U.N. vote authorizes military action (56% say this). A separate question shows a similar percentage saying the United States should not invade unless "European allies like France and Germany have given their support." (Leaders of both countries have indicated they would not support an invasion of Iraq at this time.) On both of these questions, about four in 10 Americans say the Bush administration should invade Iraq when it believes it is time to do so.

Which comes closer to your view – [ROTATED: the United States should invade Iraq when the Bush administration decides that it is time to do so, (or) the United States should not invade Iraq unless there is a new United Nations vote authorizing military action]?

 

	Invade when Bush decides	Not invade unless a U.N. vote authorizes	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	39%	56	5

Which comes closer to your view – [ROTATED: the United States should invade Iraq when the Bush administration decides that it is time to do so, (or) the United States should not invade Iraq unless European allies like France and Germany have given their support]?

 

	Invade when Bush decides	Not invade unless allies give support	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	39%	57	4

Trust on the Iraq Issue

A roughly equal percentage of Americans have at least a moderate amount of trust in the Bush administration (65%) and in the United Nations (69%) to make the right decisions regarding Iraq. But nearly twice as many say they have "a great deal" of trust in the Bush administration (31%) as say this about the United Nations (17%). The results on this question have changed little since mid-December, at which time 66% trusted Bush (including 32% who had a great deal of trust) and 65% trusted the United Nations (and 13% had a great deal of trust).

However, when asked directly whom they trust more to make the right decisions regarding Iraq, the public is evenly divided: 47% say the Bush administration and 47% say the United Nations.

Views on the Inspections

Thirty-nine percent of Americans say they are paying very close attention to the U.N. weapons inspections, ranking it among the top news events Gallup has tested since 1991, and similar to the percentage (43%) who were closely following the "situation in Iraq" measured in a poll earlier this month. The overwhelming majority of the public thinks the inspectors are doing a good job (76%, compared with 17% who think they are doing a poor job).

Notwithstanding their views on the inspectors' job performance, the vast majority of Americans believe that Iraq is not complying with the U.N.'s requirements -- just 13% say Iraq is complying while 81% believe it is not. And the majority of those who believe Iraq is not complying (representing 52% of all Americans) believe its lack of compliance is serious enough to warrant a U.S. invasion.

Iraq Complying With U.N. Requirements?

Jan. 23-25, 2003

These results may reflect a general antipathy toward Iraq more than an assessment of what has been happening with the latest round of U.N. inspections for chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in Iraq. Results of a February 2002 Gallup Poll make clear how negatively Americans view Iraq: just 6% said they had a favorable view of Iraq, compared with 88% who had an unfavorable view.

Americans also believe that weapons inspections alone are not enough to eliminate the threat Iraq poses to other nations. Seventy-one percent say military action is needed in addition to inspections to make sure Iraq cannot threaten other nations, while just 20% believe weapons inspections alone are sufficient to accomplish this.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,000 adults, 18 years and older, conducted Jan. 23-25, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Would you favor or oppose invading Iraq with U.S. ground troops in an attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power?

 

		Favor	Oppose	No opinion
		%	%	%
2003 Jan 23-25		52	43	5
2003 Jan 10-12		56	38	6
2003 Jan 3-5 ^		56	39	5
2002 Dec 19-22 ^		53	38	9
2002 Dec 16-17 ^		58	35	7
2002 Dec 9-10		55	39	6
2002 Nov 22-24		58	37	5
2002 Nov 8-10		59	35	6
2002 Oct 21-22		54	40	6
2002 Oct 14-17 ^		56	37	7
2002 Oct 3-6		53	40	7
2002 Sep 20-22 ^		57	38	5
2002 Sep 13-16 †		57	39	4
2002 Sep 5-8 ^ †		58	36	6
2002 Sep 2-4 †		58	36	6
2002 Aug 19-21 †		53	41	6
2002 Jun 17-19 ^ †		61	31	8
2001 Nov 26-27 ‡		74	20	6
2001 Feb 19-21 ‡		52	42	6
1993 Jun 29-30 ‡		70	27	3
1992 Mar 30-Apr 5 ‡ ?		55	40	5
^	Asked of half sample.
†	WORDING: Would you favor or oppose sending American ground troops to the Persian Gulf in an attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq?
‡	WORDING: Would you favor or oppose sending American troops back to the Persian Gulf in order to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq?
?	Life Magazine/Gallup.

 

Which comes closer to your view -- [ROTATED: the United Nations weapons inspectors in Iraq should be given more time to conduct their inspections, even if that means a United States invasion of Iraq is delayed or prevented altogether, (or) Iraq has already had enough time to prove to the United Nations inspectors that it does not have weapons of mass destruction, and no more time is needed even if that means the United States invades Iraq soon]?

 

	Give more time	No more time is needed	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	56%	41	3

Do you think the United States should -- [ROTATED: give the United Nations weapons inspectors as much time as they say they need to conduct their inspections in Iraq, (or should the United States) set a deadline for the United Nations weapons inspectors to complete their inspections in Iraq]?

BASED ON -- 554 -- ADULTS WHO SAY THE U.N. WEAPONS INSPECTORS IN IRAQ SHOULD BE GIVEN MORE TIME TO CONDUCT THEIR INSPECTIONS

 

	As much time as they need	Set a deadline	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	63%	36	1

Which comes closer to your view -- [ROTATED: the United States should invade Iraq when the Bush administration decides that it is time to do so, (or) the United States should not invade Iraq unless there is a new United Nations vote authorizing military action]?

 

	Should invade when Bush administration decides	Should not invade unless a new U.N. vote authorizes action	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	39%	56	5

Which comes closer to your view -- [ROTATED: the United States should invade Iraq when the Bush administration decides that it is time to do so, (or) the United States should not invade Iraq unless European allies like France and Germany have given their support]?

 

	Should invade when Bush administration decides	Should not invade unless European allies have given support	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	39%	57	4

How much trust do you have in the Bush administration to make the right decisions regarding Iraq -- a great deal, a moderate amount, not much, or none at all?

 

		Great deal	Moderate amount	Not much	None at all	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25		31%	34	19	15	1
2002 Dec 9-10 ^		32%	34	20	12	2
^	Asked of a half sample

How much trust do you have in the United Nations to make the right decisions regarding Iraq -- a great deal, a moderate amount, not much, or none at all?

 

		Great deal	Moderate amount	Not much	None at all	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25		17%	52	20	10	1
2002 Dec 9-10 ^		13%	52	27	7	1
^	Asked of a half sample

 

Who do you trust more to make the right decisions regarding Iraq -- [ROTATED: the Bush administration (or) the United Nations]?

 

	Bush adminis- tration	United Nations		BOTH EQUALLY (vol.)		NEITHER (vol.)		No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	47%	47		4		1		1
(vol.) Volunteered response

 

If President Bush decided to invade Iraq with U.S. ground troops in an attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power, which of the following would best describe your reaction -- [ROTATED: you would support the president's decision because you think the U.S. should invade Iraq, you would support the president's decision even though you do not think the U.S. should invade Iraq, (or) you would not support the president's decision because you do not think the U.S. should invade Iraq]?

 

	Support decision, think U.S. should invade	Support decision, do not think U.S. should invade	Would not support decision, do not think U.S. should invade	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	45%	27	26	2
2002 Oct 3-6	47%	27	22	4

 

How closely have you been following the news about the United Nations' inspections for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq -- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

 

	Very closely	Somewhat closely		Not too closely		Not at all		No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	39%	49		10		2		*
* Less than 0.5%

Based on what you have read or heard, do you think the United Nations weapons inspectors in Iraq have been doing a good job or a poor job?

 

	Good job	Poor job	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	76%	17	7

Do you think Iraq is -- or is not -- complying with what the United Nations has required it to do so far?

 

	Yes, complying	No, not	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	13%	81	6

Do you think Iraq's lack of compliance is serious enough to warrant the United States invading Iraq with ground troops in an attempt to remove Saddam Hussein from power, or is it not serious enough?

BASED ON – 828 -- ADULTS WHO SAY IRAQ IS NOT COMPLYING WITH WHAT THE UNITED NATIONS HAS REQUIRED IT TO DO SO FAR

 

	Yes, serious enough	No, not	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	64%	32	4

Which comes closer to your view -- [ROTATED: U.N. weapons inspections alone can eliminate the threat Iraq poses to other nations (or) Military action is needed along with weapons inspections to eliminate the threat Iraq poses to other nations]?

 

	Inspections alone can eliminate threat	Military action also needed	IRAQ DOES NOT POSE A THREAT (vol.)	No opinion
2003 Jan 23-25	20%	71	2	7
(vol.) Volunteered response