Public Steady About Iraq, Could Waver as U.S. Casualties Increase

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite rising U.S. casualties in Iraq, American support for the U.S. effort in Iraq appears undiminished. Still, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll suggests that support is not without limits. Almost four in 10 Americans support the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq "for as long as needed regardless of how many U.S. service people are killed." But a quarter of Americans want to withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq now, and another third favors withdrawal if the number of U.S. casualties "becomes too high."

Thinking about how the U.S. should deal with the situation in Iraq in the future -- which would you prefer –?

July 25-27, 2003

As of Monday, July 28, 2003, 50 American troops had been confirmed dead since the official end of major fighting three months ago -- with 17 killed in the past 10 days. By now, 163 U.S. soldiers have died in Iraq, 16 more than in the 1991 Persian Gulf War.

Responses to the poll suggest that either death toll is still too low to trigger much additional opposition to U.S. troops in Iraq. However, 12% of Americans say they would favor withdrawing troops if 200 Americans were killed. That number, added to the 26% who want withdrawal now, would bring the percentage favoring withdrawal from Iraq to 38% of the public. If 500 were killed, another 10% of Americans say they would favor withdrawal, bringing the total to 48% -- compared with 46% who either would stay in Iraq indefinitely, or would not withdraw unless the casualties reached 1,000 or more.

 

HOW UNITED STATES SHOULD DEAL WITH SITUATION IN IRAQ
		%
Continue to have a significant number of U.S. troops in Iraq regardless of the number of U.S. troops killed		37
Withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq if the number of U.S. troops killed becomes too high		33
(Two hundred)	(12)
(Five hundred)	(10)
(One thousand)	(4)
(Some higher number)	(5)
(Unsure)	(2)
Withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq now		26
No opinion		4

Support for U.S. Effort Steady

On July 22, American forces found and killed Saddam Hussein's sons, Uday and Qusay, which 63% of Americans consider to be a "major achievement for the United States." In the wake of that announcement, however, the current poll finds little change in Americans' overall assessment of what is happening in Iraq -- except that there is greater confidence now that Saddam himself will be killed or captured.

By a margin of 63% to 34%, Americans say the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, essentially unchanged from last week. The margin is a little greater than what Gallup found in late June, but down significantly from the major combat phase of the war.

All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq is/was worth going to war over, or not?

Also, by a 53% to 43% margin, Americans say the U.S. war with Iraq will end up solving more problems than it creates, essentially unchanged from almost two months ago.

In the long run, do you think the U.S. war with Iraq will – end up creating more problems than it solves or will end up solving more problems than it creates?

Similarly, 56% of Americans believe the situation in Iraq since the end of major fighting has been going well, compared with 43% who say it's been going badly. These views are much less positive than those expressed last April and May, but little changed over the past month.

How would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq now that the major fighting has ended – very well, moderately well, moderately badly, or very badly?

Sixty-eight percent of Americans are confident that the United States will capture or kill Saddam Hussein, up from 48% who expressed that view a month ago. This surge would appear to be related to the finding and killing of Saddam's sons. Close to eight in 10 Americans say they have followed the news about that event very or somewhat closely.

How Confident Are You That the U.S. Will – Capture or Kill Saddam Hussein?

But Americans remain divided in their views about whether weapons of mass destruction will be found in Iraq -- 52% are very or somewhat confident they will be, and 46% are not too or not at all confident. These figures are little changed from last month, though down significantly from the end of March.

How Confident Are You That the U.S. Will – Find Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq?

Americans are also divided about the ability of U.S. troops to stop the attacks against them in Iraq -- 51% are confident, but 48% are not. A month ago, the comparable figures were 55% to 44%.

How Confident Are You That the U.S. Will – Be Able to Stop the Attacks Against U.S. Soldiers in Iraq?

By 58% to 41%, Americans are confident the United States will be able to establish a stable democratic government in Iraq -- again not much changed from last month, but down somewhat from the end of March.

How Confident Are You That the U.S. Will – Establish a Stable Democratic Government in Iraq?

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,006 national adults, aged 18+, conducted July 25-27, 2003. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

11. All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?

 

		Worth going to war	Not worth going to war	No opinion
		%	%	%
2003 Jul 25-27		63	34	3
2003 Jul 18-20		63	35	2
2003 Jun 27-29		56	42	2
2003 Apr 14-16 ^		73	23	4
2003 Apr 9 ^ †		76	19	5
2003 Apr 7-8 ^		67	30	3
2003 Mar 24-25 ^ ‡		68	29	3
2003 Jan 3-5 ^ ‡		53	42	5
^	WORDING: All in all, do you think the current situation in Iraq is worth going to war over, or not?
†	Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.
‡	Asked of a half sample.

Trends for Comparison:

 

		Worth going to war	Not worth going to war	No opinion
		%	%	%
1998 Feb 20-22		57	36	7
Persian Gulf War
1991 Jan 30-Feb 2 ^		71	24	5
1991 Jan 11-13 †		46	44	10
1991 Jan 3-6 †		47	44	9
1990 Dec 13-16 †		49	44	7
1990 Dec 6-9 †		47	45	8
1990 Nov 29-Dec 2 †		51	41	8
1990 Nov 15-18 †		46	45	9
1990 Sep 27-30 †		49	41	10
1990 Aug 30-Sep 2 †		45	44	11
1990 Aug 23-26 †		49	41	10
^	All in all, do you think the situation in the Middle East involving Iraq and Kuwait is worth going to war over, or not?
†	All in all, is the current situation in the Mideast worth going to war over, or not?

12. How would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq now that the major fighting has ended – [ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]?

 

		Very well	Moderately well	Moderately badly	Very badly	No opinion
		%	%	%	%	%
2003 Jul 25-27		10	46	28	15	1
2003 Jul 18-20		6	48	30	15	1
2003 Jun 27-29		5	51	29	13	2
2003 May 30-Jun 1		11	59	22	7	1
2003 May 5-7 ^		30	56	10	3	1
2003 Apr 22-23 ^		21	64	12	2	1
^	Asked of a half sample.

13. In the long run, do you think the U.S. war with Iraq will – [ROTATED: end up creating more problems than it solves (or will) end up solving more problems than it creates]?

 

	Creating more problems	Solving more problems	No opinion
2003 Jul 25-27	43%	53	4
2003 May 30-Jun 1	42%	53	5

14. How confident are you that the U.S. will – [RANDOM ORDER]—very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not confident at all?

A. Capture or kill Saddam Hussein

 

	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not confident at all	No opinion
2003 Jul 25-27	31%	37	20	11	1
2003 Jun 27-29	18%	30	29	20	3
2003 Mar 29-30	36%	34	17	11	2

B. Find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq

 

	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not confident at all	No opinion
2003 Jul 25-27	21%	31	26	20	2
2003 Jun 27-29	22%	31	25	20	2
2003 Mar 29-30	52%	32	10	5	1

C. Establish a stable democratic government in Iraq

 

	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not confident at all	No opinion
2003 Jul 25-27	13%	45	26	15	1
2003 Jun 27-29	15%	40	28	16	1
2003 Mar 29-30	20%	45	22	12	1

D. Be able to stop the attacks against U.S. soldiers in Iraq

 

	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not confident at all	No opinion
2003 Jul 25-27	15%	36	30	18	1
2003 Jun 27-29	18%	37	26	18	1

Q.14 CONTINUED

SUMMARY TABLE: CONFIDENCE IN U.S. ACHIEVING GOALS IN IRAQ

 

2003 Jul 25-27 (sorted on percent "very confident")	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too/ Not at all confident
Capture or kill Saddam Hussein	31%	37	31
Find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq	21%	31	46
Be able to stop the attacks against U.S. soldiers in Iraq	15%	36	48
Establish a stable democratic government in Iraq	13%	45	41

15. Thinking about how the U.S. should deal with the situation in Iraq in the future -- which would you prefer – [ROTATED: to continue to have a significant number of U.S. troops in Iraq for as long as needed regardless of how many U.S. military service people are killed, to withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq if the number of U.S. military service people who are killed becomes too high, or to withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq now]?

 

	Continue regardless of troops killed	Withdraw if number of troops killed becomes too high	Withdraw all troops from Iraq now	No opinion
2003 Jul 25-27	37%	33	26	4

16. How many U.S. military service people do you think would be too high a number killed and would cause you to favor withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq -- two hundred, five hundred, one thousand, or some higher number?

BASED ON 327 ADULTS WHO SAY THE U.S. SHOULD WITHDRAW TROOPS IF THE NUMBER OF TROOPS KILLED BECOMES TOO HIGH

 

	Two hundred	Five hundred	One thousand	Some higher number	No opinion
2003 Jul 25-27	37%	29	13	16	5

COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.15-16)

 

		2003 Jul 25-27
		%
Continue to have a significant number of U.S. troops in Iraq regardless of the number of U.S. troops killed		37
Withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq if the number of U.S. troops killed becomes too high		33
(Two hundred)	(12)
(Five hundred)	(10)
(One thousand)	(4)
(Some higher number)	(5)
(Unsure)	(2)
Withdraw all U.S. troops from Iraq now		26
No opinion		4

Still thinking about Iraq,

17. How closely would you say you have followed the news about the deaths of Saddam Hussein'ssons, Uday and Qusay-- very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

 

	Very closely	Somewhat closely	Not too closely	Not at all	No opinion
2003 Jul 25-27	34%	44	16	6	*

18. Do you consider finding and killing Uday and Qusay Hussein to be a major achievement for the United States, a minor achievement, or not an achievement at all?

 

	Major achievement	Minor achievement	Not an achievement at all	No opinion
2003 Jul 25-27	63%	25	11	1

* -- less than 0.5%